Today's Line moves

Important Line Moves and Free Picks for July 19
By Doug Upstone of www.VegasProInsidersDaily.com

With so many day games, our choices were fewer for line moves in baseball, but we still got to four action plays and added a Canadien Football game also. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (179-130), to see what we are thinking. See you back here Friday.

MLB – (907) MILWAUKEE at (908) PITTSBURGH  7:05 ET  FSWI, RTPT (side and total)

Just like that, Pittsburgh is back in the NL Central chase after taking the first two games from division-leading Milwaukee. Those betting baseball like the Pirates chances to make it three straight and have bumped them up from -140 to -155 or higher, depending on the book. You get the feeling Zach Davies (11-4) is plain lucky to have such a record, as his ERA is 5.08. And against the Bucs, it is mind-numbing 10.29 in five starts. Though Pitt's Gerrit Cole (7-7, 4.35) has ability, you are never quite sure if he will be sharp or be lit up and is partly why the total climbed from 8.5 to 9. I will go disagree with both line moves, finding Davies is 7-1 as a road underdog of +125 to +175 since last season (Team's record) and 13-4 OVER this year.

Betting Trend - 67% backing Milwaukee and 57% on Over
Doug's VPID Take - Milwaukee wins and Over

MLB – (911) ARIZONA at (912) CINCINNATI   7:10 ET  FSAZ, FSOH

Arizona busted out of their offensive slump last night in 11-2 drilling of Cincinnati. The same is not true for the Reds who have scored 26 runs in their past eight outings. Baseball bettors are fairly certain Cincy's woes will continue versus Zack Greinke (11-4, 2.86) and dumped the total from 9.5 to 9. Historically, Greinke has been tough on the Reds, going 8-2 with a 2.21 ERA in 13 career starts. The only caveat appears to be Cincinnati starter Tim Adleman (5-7, 4.99), who does give up runs. Certainly not my favorite game on the board, yet, cannot ignore the Reds are 15-5 OVER at home vs. a NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.05 or better since 2015. 

Betting Trend - 52% backing Over
Doug's VPID Take - Lean Over

MLB – (923) DETROIT at (924) KANSAS CITY  8:15 ET  FSD, FSKC

Detroit's offense has caught fire in winning four in a row, averaging 9.0 RPG. They have surrendered one of their big bombers in J.D. Martinez through a trade with Arizona, though Royals starter Jason Hammel (4-8, 5.02) has not reminded anyone of Max Scherzer this season. With Justin Verlander (5-7, 4.66) becoming more known for being Kate Upton's finance than for his pitching prowess, the total zoomed from 9.5 to 10. Again, I will go against the grain with the Kansas City offense slumping and having 15-6 UNDER record when playing with triple revenge.  

Betting Trend - 60% backing Under
Doug's VPID Take - Lean Under

CFL – (351) MONTREAL at (352) OTTAWA  7:30 ET  ESPN3

Montreal is tops in scoring defense in the CFL, however, its offense is just as frightful, just in the opposite way, ranked next to last in points. Ottawa can score points at a 29 PPG clip, yet plays little defense in permitting 30.7 PPG. Oddsmakers essentially split the teams numbers in half and made the total 50.5, but summertime football bettors have driven down the total to 48.5. I agree where the total is headed with the Alouettes 20-9 UNDER as underdogs.

Betting Trend - 55% backing Over
Doug's VPID Take - Play Under

 

Public Consensus Record (2017) - 51% to 79% - 140-154-8 ATS
Public Consensus Record (2017) - 80% or Higher - 93-80-3 ATS
Line Movement Direction Record (2017) - 224-214-11 ATS

Doug is now a Playbook Expert, Order His Best Bets Here at The Cube or Playbook.com.