Today's Line moves

Free Picks and Predictions on Line Moves for Nov. 17th
By Doug Upstone of www.VegasProInsidersDaily.com  

After another winning day of free picks, we focus our attention to a college football Saturday, with four new line moves plus updates on the ones from Wednesday. Take a minute to review all the betting trends, our free picks and predictions (421-339-11 in 2018) to see what we are thinking today. See you back here tomorrow.

CFB – (329) NORTHWESTERN at (330) MINNESOTA  12:00 ET  BTN   *New*

The general consensus is Northwestern has wrapped up the Big Ten West and has nothing to play for, while Minnesota needs a victory to go bowling and has plenty to play for. It sounds so simple and that is why the Golden Gophers were flipped from +3 to -2 at home. While logic dictates this is how it should play it doesn't always. Still, I can't ignore Minnesota is 10-1 ATS off an upset win as a double-digit underdog.

Betting Trend - 61% backing Minnesota
Doug's VPID Take - Minnesota covers

CFB – (339) SOUTH FLORIDA at (340) TEMPLE  12:00 ET  ESPNN

Both these AAC teams have strong offenses and neither defense has been worth a damn of late, thus, seeing the total climb from 57.5 to 61 should not even raise an eyebrow. But do you ignore a totals system pertaining to above average teams when the total is 56.5 to 63 points, that is 74-30 UNDER? Update - No movement all week on this total. My numbers have this at either 60 or 61, making this a very tough call, but I'll lean UNDER, only because of the system.

Betting Trend - Was 62% backing Over, now 78%
Doug's VPID Take - Slight lean Under

CFB – (347) MID. TENNESSEE at (348) KENTUCKY  2:00 ET  SECN-A

Kentucky is floundering at the end of the season again. The Wildcats have finished SEC play and faces a hot Middle Tennessee crew that has won six of seven (5-2 ATS). Sportsbooks have bumped Kentucky from -14 to -16.5, which normally would an automatic play on a live underdog. One problem, in the bigger picture this game doesn't mean anything to the Blue Raiders, having to beat UAB next week to advance to C-USA title game. See the issue? Update - The line is unchanged, with the public luck warm on the underdog, but most sharp action bettors have the Wildcats.

Betting Trend - Was 58% backing Middle Tennessee, now 57%
Doug's VPID Take - Lean Kentucky

CFB – (349) OHIO STATE at (350) MARYLAND  12:00 ET  ABC

Nobody is trusting Ohio State anymore, as they have slipped three points to -14 at Maryland. More than enough bettors have seen the Buckeyes struggle and Urban Meyer's gyrations from his frustration over his team's play. Nonetheless, consider the SU winner of a Terps game is 10-0 ATS this season. Any questions? Update - Ohio State is back up a tick and on the hook at -14.5. I prefer the Buckeyes but their road rushing defense has been very substandard compared to normal, which is a real concern. I soften opinion on Ohio State and will just side with them.

Betting Trend - Was 68% backing Ohio State, now 71%
Doug's VPID Take - Lean Ohio State

CFB – (367) SYRACUSE vs. (368) NOTRE DAME  2:30 ET  NBC

Notre Dame might only be permitting 18.7 PPG, but evidently, you can toss that out the window, as the total in this game is up to 66 after starting at 63.5. Syracuse is averaging 44.4 PPG and the Irish's offense figures to be in better hands with QB Ian Book back. Here is a thought to ponder, the Orange are 8-1 UNDER versus teams averaging 450 or more yards a game. Update - This total has dropped a half point each of the last two days to 65. Again another nasty choice, but I have this at 34-28 Irish, causing me to think UNDER.

Betting Trend - Was 66% backing Over, now 63%
Doug's VPID Take - Lean Under

CFB – (371) UTSA at (372) MARSHALL  2:30 ET  Stadium

Backing Marshall this week might take some "onions". The Thundering Herd have been ridden from -24 to -27 and the total is 44.5. That would mean Marshall would have to win by a 36-9 score. On one level that is possible since UTSA is 127th in road scoring at 12.7 PPG and they allow 34.4 PPG away from home. Still, both situations would need to be more extreme for a cover. Yet the alternative of backing the Roadrunners at 2-8 ATS is hardly pleasant. Update - One more uptick on Marshall to -27.5. The math does not work, I'll take UTSA.

Betting Trend - Was 88% backing Marshall, now 81%
Doug's VPID Take - UTSA covers

CFB – (405) UL-MONROE at (406) ARKANSAS STATE  3:00 ET ESPN+    *New*

This a very meaningful tilt in the SBC West, but all the betting attention is on the total. This contest has seen the total jacked four points to 68.5. These teams are 5-1 OVER in their most recent meetings, including last year's 67-50 final with a closing total of 70. Both teams have been playing better defense the last month while still scoring ample points, but hard to ignore this fact. When the total is between 63.5 and 70, in a game involving two average teams (+/- 0.6 YPP) after 7+ games, the OVER is 46-16.

Betting Trend - 95% backing Over
Doug's VPID Take - Play Over

CFB – (411) MIAMI-FL at (412) VIRGINIA TECH  3:30 ET  ESPN   *New*

Virginia Tech's talent is way down from the prime Frank Beamer years and with a wave of injuries, the only thing this Hokies team has in common with the past is the uniforms. The Hokies have lost three straight and four of five and not covered one of them, which has helped push them from +3 to +5.5 home dogs. But hold on here, Miami's sinking in the abyss with four losses in a row and 0-5 ATS also. I would say the Techsters are hardly a play but do you want to fork out cash on the Canes? Strictly a rosary play on Miami.

Betting Trend - 54% backing Miami
Doug's VPID Take - Slight lean Miami

CFB – (417) IOWA STATE at (418) TEXAS  8:00 ET  LHN   *New*

What the heck, a consequential football game of Top 20 teams on the Longhorn Network? Really? Yea, it's true as the winner of this Big 12 battle stays in the hunt for title game berth. Bring a letter and a chunk of chain links, because D-Fence is the cry with the total collapsing from 51 to 47. Iowa State star back David Montgomery has to sit the first half for being involved in a fight last week. Both teams defense have done well against average offenses, which both these are. The number does seem too low yet the numbers back it up. These two are 4-2 UNDER in last six, 5-1 UNDER in Austin and each has a laundry list of UNDER tendencies, including the Horns 6-0 UNDER in home games after scoring 37 points or more last game. 

Betting Trend - 86% backing Over
Doug's VPID Take - Play Under

 

Public's Favorite Sides Bets (27-27-1 ATS) in order: Utah State, N.C. State, Boston Coll., Navy and Wash. State

Public's Favorite Totals Bets (32-22-1) in order: UCLA/USC OVER, ASU/Oregon OVER, Kansas/Okl. OVER, UL-Monroe/Ark. St. OVER and Miami/Virg. Tech UNDER

 

Public Consensus Record (2018) - 51% to 79% - 238-235-13 ATS
Public Consensus Record (2018) - 80% or Higher - 106-88-2 ATS
Line Movement Direction Record (2018) - 350-344-15 ATS