Building a bridge for you to cross over to the profitable side of Sports Wagering.
Handicapping Elimination Process Identify Teams NOT TO Wager on first. Then Handicap the remaining games.
Consider eliminating the following:
Large Favorites of 7 or more.
Reasoning: We are looking for DOGS or small favorites , of 3 or less, preferable at HOME therefore we just have to win the game to cover. With Dogs you have 2 ways to win , Outright and plus points rather than one way as a Large Favorite.
Bad Quarterbacks with Bad Offensive Lines
Reasoning: Two most important qualities of an NFL QB 1) Pre-Snap Reads 2) Pocket Passer getting the ball out quickly in a 3-5 step drop. (Ex: Tom Brady) Without controlling the Line of Scrimmage with a good Offensive Line QB play will deteriorate resulting in BAD TEAMS OVERALL , most times regardless of a reasonably good QB. The reason we prefer HOME teams even Quality NFL QB's struggle on the ROAD.
Ex: Matt Stafford 3-27 OUTRIGHT last 30 on the Road.
Bad Teams in General
Week 5 Ex: San Fran at Indy (After Seattle) / LA Chargers at NY Giants both winless on the year. Simply eliminate BAD TEAMS.
22 < Rush Attempts Per Game - One of the most overlooked stats in NFL Handicapping.
NFL Teams that do not make an effort to Rush ball using a bench mark 22 < per game. Generally a reflection of Head Coach are dommed for the 'Hot Seat.'
Reasoning : NFL Teams that with 30> Rush Attempts Per Game vs. Teams with 22< Rush Attempts WIN ATS > 80 % of time.
Ex: 22< Miami , NY Giants , LA Chargers Collective Win / Loss record thru Week 4 is 1 -10 straight up.
Ex: 30> Buffalo, Houston, Denver Collective Win/ Loss record thru Week 4 is 8-4 straight up. Generally if you win game, you cover ATS.
Last week Steelers Head Coach Tomlin took a stand to raise his teams RAPG , Steelers had 35 Rushes / 144 yards & 26-7 win over Ravens.
Note: NFL Week 6 largest margins of RAPG is Denver 32 vs. NYG 16 = Massive + 16 / Cleveland 23 Houston 31 + 8. SF 23 vs. Wash 29 + 6.
Teams in Scheduling Disadvantages
Ex: Week 6 San Fran is playing their 3rd game in a row on ROAD and off TWO OT'S IN CONSECUTIVE WEEKS vs. Washington Rested off a BYE.
Ex: Teams playing back to back ROAD games you may want to avoid also.
Ex: Teams traveling 2 Time Zones , especially in the 1:00 slot with a 10:00 am Body Clock Start . Week 5 we have 3 West To East Games including LA Chargers at NY Giants, Arizona at Philly & San Fran at Indy. West To East Travelers were 1-2.
Ex: Teams in 'Division Sandwiches' either home or away with Division being the middle game.
Be aware of 'Look Ahead' games as well. Where team may have a DIVISION game in 2 weeks , may overlook team they play this week.
Teams Off A Win Vs. Teams Off a Loss
We always look for 'Value' to build a handicapping case for a team off a LOSS vs. a TEAM off a WIN. We think team off Loss is more focused with a greater sense of urgency for next game. You can verify the Value comparing the 'Look ahead prices' to currently line week of game.
Eliminate Poor Line Value Games / Take the Value With Handicapping Case Built.
Ex: Indy was a 8.5 point favorite over Cleveland in ' April Look Ahead Lines.' However Week 3 Cleveland came favored on ROAD no less by 1.5. Value was 10 points due to Andrew Luck not playing. Any way you look at it a '10 POINT LINE MOVE IS TOO MUCH IN ANY NFL GAME' & should be looked at strongly. Of course , Indy at HOME won OUTRIGHT.
Eliminate Historically Bad ATS Situations with Stats / Trends & Angles
Marc Lawrence's 'Well Oiled Machine' does this really well.
Ex: From Week 4 Marc's Lawrence Playbook.com Newsletter Patriot's Tom Brady is 16-3 SU ATS off a LOSS AWAY in his NFL Career while Tampa Bay Bucs are 0-4 ATS on Thursday Nights all time. Translation: Eliminate the Bucs. Pats covered !
Eliminate High Public % Teams using benchmark > 70 % using Today's Technology.
Offshore Sports Books sell POS info as a ' Valuable Commodity' to many websites that allow you to see inside Vegas Computers & avoid High Public Bet % NFL Games. Vegas is not really happy about this as more sophisticated bettors use it diligently. Never use blindly without handicapping case built. Just simply, eliminate those games. Remember NFL Week 3 when Public Bettors were taken to the outhouse. If you noticed that week most all the BIG PUBLIC BET % Games lost outright.
We could see this coming due to POS info from various online sources. That morning I wrote an e-mail that read ' Public will take a beating today therefore I am playing only ONE O/U play. While most everyone lost their tail , we turned a profit for that day by eliminating every SIDE play for the entire day. Proper use of POS Info allowed us to recognize the 'NFL Snakes' like Denver & Oakland , then entire SIDE Card.
Ex: Denver ( at Buffalo) & Oakland at (at Washington) accounted for 92 % of all Bet Tickets written / 36% of the Total days handle at William Hill 108 Sports Book Chain in Vegas. The very first thing you do is eliminate Denver & Oakland. In other words, you don't want to be on OVER WHELMING Public Sides.
Look closely at CASH (Sharps & Syndicates ) VS. & BET TICKETS (Public) Follow the Money trail and you will find the RIGHT SIDE.
This week : Ex: Steelers + 4.5 Cash 49% / Tickets 28%
Saints - 4 Cash 40% / Tickets 27%
Bears + 6 Cash 49% / Tickets 27 %
DO NOT Eliminate NFL Totals
Speaking of OVER WHELMING WINNING RESULTS LOOK NO FURTHER THAN VICTOR KING
NFL Bettors can often seek refuge utilizing NFL Totals when they recognize it may not be a good Side Play Sunday via the POS Info.
Nation's Best Victor King at King Creole Sports / playbook.com is the author of 'NFL Totals Tip Sheet' and provides insight into NFL Totals weekly. Vic also has a NFL 4**** 'Star Rating Integrity' play on playbook.com ' Pay After You Win' basis. Last year Vic was 8-1 with 5 ***** & Higher and is off to the same fantastic start this year , drum roll please 4-1 / 80 %! Including his 'Over Easy' 5***** Over 46 Rams / Cowboys.
There is not a human alive that provides better ' Write Ups' as PROOF & STAR RATING INTEGRITY than Victor King that allows one to wager confidently year after year.
Lastly, maintain your Money & Game Management & Bet Application Skills and never let anyone take your Discipline.
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