2018 NFL Win Totals And Strength Of Schedule
Marc Lawrence
Posted: 2018-05-05

By conventional measure, weighing an NFL team's strength of schedule is simple and straightforward.

The common approach is to collectively add-up each opponent's win-loss record from the previous season to help determine each opponent's potential win probability for the coming campaign.

Playbook Method: NFL Strength Of Schedule vis-a-vis Season Win Totals

Another variable is to assess each opponent's season win totals for the upcoming season and tally the accumulative amount of wins.

It's my contention this represents a truer methodology. After all, which is more relevant: knowing how an opponent fared in last year's battles, or the expected degree of difficulty awaiting them this year?

SuperBook Season Win Totals

Let's take a look at the opening 2018 NFL season win totals posted by the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas on April 29.

Teams are ranked from top-to-bottom based on each team's foes most projected season win totals to the fewest season win totals.

Team Team Win Total Foe Win Total Division Non Division
Arizona Cardinals 5 136 53 83
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6.5 135.5 55.5 80
New York Giants 6.5 133.5 52 81.5
Philadelphia Eagles 10.5 132.5 44 88.5
Cleveland Browns 5.5 132 51 81
New Orleans Saints 9.5 132 49 83
Washington Redskins 7 132 51 81
Carolina Panthers 9 131.5 52 79.5
Detroit Lions 8 131.5 53 78.5
Seattle Seahawks 8 131.5 47 84.5
Los Angeles Rams 9.5 131 44 87
Kansas City Chiefs 8.5 130.5 48 82.5
Chicago Bears 6.5 130 56 74
Dallas Cowboys 8.5 130 48 82
Minnesota Vikings 10 130 49 81
Buffalo Bills 6.5 129.5 46 83.5
Miami Dolphins 6 128.5 47 81.5
Atlanta Falcons 9 128 48 80
Denver Broncos 7 128 51 77
Indianapolis Colts 6.5 128 51 77
Jacksonville Jaguars 9 128 46 82
Green Bay Packers 10 127.5 49 78.5
Pittsburgh Steelers 10.5 127.5 41 82.5
Tennessee Titans 8 127 48 79
Baltimore Ravens 8 126 46 80
Cincinnati Bengals 7 126 48 78
New York Jets 6 126 47 79
San Francisco 49ers 9 125 45 80
Los Angeles Chargers 9 124.5 47 77.5
Oakland Raiders 8 124 49 75
Houston Texans 8.5 122.5 47 75.5
New England Patriots 11 122.5 37 85.5


As you can see by this method, Arizona will take on the most difficult schedule, with Houston and New England facing the easiest slate. In addition Philadelphia will face the toughest non-division schedule with Chicago drawing the softest route outside the division.

Also note that many of the opening season-win totals carried extra "juice" (i.e. Arizona 5 -130 over, Green Bay 10 -140 under). For the purpose of this study the extra cost was removed from all season win totals.



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