Rating No. 1 wide receivers for all 32 NFL teams
Mike Clay and NFL Nation
Posted: 2018-06-26

"I think that you can estimate that there are 10 No. 1 receivers in this league, and 22 others get it done in another way." -- Dallas Cowboys vice president Stephen Jones, after the release of Dez Bryant.

Is he right? Yes and no.

On one hand, Jones' premise that not all teams rely on a clear-cut No. 1 wide receiver is obviously correct. In some cases, that's because a team has several very good wide receivers. In others, the team simply doesn't have an alpha dog at the position. And that got us thinking: Which wide receivers fall into that "No. 1 wide receiver" category? And what is the best way to determine them?

The answer? Target share.

Target share is the percentage of the team's total targets handled by a single player. For example, the Houston Texans registered 508 targets last season and 172 of them were directed at DeAndre Hopkins. That works out to a league-high 33.9 percent share (the NFL's third-highest mark since 2007).

We decided to split the league's 32 No. 1 wide receiver situations into four tiers:

  • Clear No. 1s
  • Not-quite No. 1s
  • Emerging No. 1s
  • Committee attacks

Here's how all 32 teams stack up, with ESPN fantasy insider Mike Clay's 2018 target-share projections and analysis from each team's NFL Nation reporter.

Tier 1: Clear No. 1s

DeAndre Hopkins

2018 outlook: After seeing what Hopkins did in quarterback Deshaun Watson's six starts last season -- 38 catches for 551 yards and six touchdowns -- the Texans have high expectations for their No. 1 receiver in 2018. Hopkins said it gives him "chills sometimes just to think what [he and Watson] did in the little time we had together," adding that he thinks the pair can be the best quarterback-receiver duo in the NFL. The Texans made sure Hopkins will be in Houston for the foreseeable future by signing him to a five-year, $81 million contract last August. -- Sarah Barshop, ESPN Texans reporter

Projected target share: 33 percent. Hopkins paced the NFL in target share last season, and his 508 targets over the past three seasons are 367 more than any other Houston player. There's a large gap between him and No. 2 WR Will Fuller on the depth chart. -- Clay

Antonio Brown's past five seasons suggest that even as he reaches 30 years of age, there's no reason to believe he'll be slowing down.

Category AB Next most
Receptions 582 481
Receiving yards 7,848 6,897
Receiving TDs 52 46
Fantasy points 1,708 1,561

Antonio Brown

2018 outlook: Brown has set a near-unreasonable expectation for his own play. Anything less than 100-plus catches and 1,500-plus yards is considered a disappointment. That's not about to change for Brown, who turns 30 in July and shows no signs of slowing. Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger will throw Brown's way another 175 times or so while the WR faces his usual heavy dose of double-teams. Brown should have at least one more prime year to strengthen his grip on the best-receiver race. -- Jeremy Fowler, ESPN Steelers reporter

Projected target share: 29 percent. Brown has enjoyed a target share of at least 26 percent each of the past five years, ranking top five in the league in targets, receptions and receiving yards during all five campaigns. He enters his age-30 season well ahead of JuJu Smith-Schuster as Pittsburgh's top wideout. -- Clay

A.J. Green

2018 outlook: He said his stats were "crummy" last season, which speaks volumes about his value as he registered 1,078 receiving yards and eight touchdowns. Green will turn 30 this season and has two more years remaining on his contract. -- Katherine Terrell, ESPN Bengals reporter

Projected target share: 29 percent. Green has led the Bengals in targets six of the past seven seasons. He's one of six wide receivers who have posted a 30-plus percent target share in multiple seasons over the past decade. The likes of Brandon LaFell and 2017 first-round pick John Ross are behind Green on the depth chart. -- Clay

Odell Beckham Jr.

2018 outlook: Odell Beckham Jr. remains the Giants' top playmaker even as he returns from a serious injury and with Saquon Barkley on the roster. Beckham looked like his old self running routes at minicamp, and there is little reason to believe he will fall off much from the 1,300 yards and double-digit touchdowns he produced each of his first three seasons. Now if only the Giants can lock Beckham up long term to make sure he's happy and focused. Beckham is scheduled to play on the fifth-year option of his rookie contract for $8.5 million. -- Jordan Raanan, ESPN Giants reporter

Projected target share: 28 percent. Healthy during the better part of the 2014-16 seasons, Beckham handled 237 more targets than any other Giants player during the span. He registered a share of at least 27 percent each of those seasons and enters 2018 with Sterling Shepard closest on the depth chart. -- Clay

Julio Jones

2018 outlook: Julio Jones is, no question, the Falcons' top receiver, but there are plenty of questions regarding his current status. He held out from team activities this offseason -- including mandatory minicamp -- despite having three years and almost $35 million left on a contract he has obviously outplayed. Now the Falcons have to decide if they're willing to set a precedent and rework or tear up Jones' contract. Jones is staying in top shape working out with NFL Hall of Famer Terrell Owens, and he's aiming for a fifth consecutive season with 1,400-plus receiving yards. But Jones needs to improve on last season's three-touchdown total. The Falcons have some insurance in first-round draft pick Calvin Ridley. -- Vaughn McClure, ESPN Falcons reporter

Projected target share: 28 percent. Jones has finished top three in the league in receiving yards each of the past four seasons, averaging a 28 percent target share during the span. His 33.5 percent share in 2015 is the fifth-highest of the past decade. This year's first-round pick, Calvin Ridley, won't be a threat to Jones' No. 1 status anytime soon. -- Clay

Keenan Allen

2018 outlook: Keenan Allen played an entire 16-game season for the first time in his five-year NFL career in 2017, finishing with 102 catches for 1,393 receiving yards and six touchdowns. The Cal product appears on track to put up similar-type numbers again this year, looking like the best player on the field during Chargers' offseason work. Allen still has three years left on the four-year, $45 million contract extension he signed during the 2016 offseason. He's scheduled to make $7.75 million in 2018. -- Eric D. Williams, ESPN Chargers, reporter

Projected target share: 27 percent. Allen bounced back from an unlucky string of injuries to post a 28 percent share during the 2017 season. Allen leads the franchise in targets (470), receptions (323) and receiving yards (4,017) since entering the league in 2013 despite missing 26 games. Mike Williams was the seventh overall pick in 2017 but has a ways to go before he's on Allen's level. -- Clay

Larry Fitzgerald

2018 outlook: He has been one of the best receivers of all time, he's a sure-fire first-ballot Hall of Famer, and he's still producing into his mid-30s with three straight 1,000-yard seasons. He has been the Cardinals' No. 1 receiver since he was drafted and will continue to be for as long as he plays. He has set up lofty expectations with his recent run of success: He led the NFL in receptions in 2016 and was second last season. He'll be expected to have another 100-catch and 1,000-yard season with a quarterback like Sam Bradford under center. Fitzgerald signed a one-year extension last season that'll keep him Arizona through 2018 and pay him $11 million. What will his future hold? Who knows at this point. He's essentially year-to-year. He took a month and a half after last season ended to decide he was playing in 2018, so there's no way to predict what he'll do in 2019. -- Josh Weinfuss, ESPN Cardinals reporter

Projected target share: 26 percent. Fitzgerald has led the Cardinals in targets each of the past 11 seasons. In fact, he paces the entire NFL in targets (1,469), receptions (904) and receiving yards (11,001) over the past decade. His 28 percent target share last season was his highest since 2011. The future Hall of Famer is entering his age-35 campaign but remains clearly atop the target totem pole in Arizona. -- Clay

Michael Thomas

2018 outlook: There are only two reasons Thomas isn't already considered among the NFL's highest tier of "go-to" receivers. One is the Saints have a history of spreading the ball around in the Drew Brees/Sean Payton era. The other is New Orleans was more balanced than ever last season with a fairly stunning 23 rushing TDs compared to 23 passing TDs. But make no mistake, Thomas is as much of a go-to receiver as Brees has ever had in New Orleans, as he showed when the Saints really needed him in their playoff rally at Minnesota (five catches for 54 yards and two TDs in the second half, mostly vs. Xavier Rhodes). Thomas' 104/1,245/5 stat line last year might be closer to a floor than a ceiling. -- Mike Triplett, ESPN Saints reporter

Projected target share: 26 percent. Thomas handled a 29 percent target share last season, which is easily the highest for a Saints player during the Payton/Brees era. That's saying something. Thomas enters his third pro season well ahead of Cameron Meredith and Ted Ginn Jr. as Brees' top target. -- Clay

Demaryius Thomas

2018 outlook: Thomas' numbers took a big hit last season when the Broncos went through three different starting quarterbacks and the team had little in the way of a third threat in the passing game to keep the double coverage away from Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders. His 83 catches for 949 yards were his lowest marks since 2011. Quarterback Case Keenum's arrival should help Thomas' cause, as should the ability for rookie receivers Courtland Sutton and DaeSean Hamilton and as tight end Jake Butt to take some of the defensive heat away from Thomas. -- Jeff Legwold, ESPN Broncos reporter

Projected target share: 26 percent. The presence of Emmanuel Sanders (projected 22 percent share) almost qualifies this as a "committee," but Thomas' consistently heavy usage is enough to get him into this category. Thomas has handled a share of at least 26 percent each of the past four seasons and has incredibly finished top 12 at the position in targets and receptions each of the past seven years. -- Clay

Mike Evans

2018 outlook: Evans inked a five-year contract with the Bucs this offseason for $82.5 million, with $55 million guaranteed. This was after he joined Randy Moss and A.J. Green as the only receivers in NFL history to reach 1,000 yards in each of their first four seasons. -- Jenna Laine, ESPN Bucs reporter

Projected target share: 25 percent. Evans has been a workhorse since entering the league in 2014. He has been on the field for 87 percent of the team's pass plays, and 26 percent of the targets have gone his direction. His 571 career targets are fifth-most in the league during his career. Evans is still in his prime and holds a big edge over No. 2 DeSean Jackson on the depth chart. -- Clay

Davante Adams

2018 outlook: Davante Adams should be considered one of the NFL's top receivers; he's certainly paid like one. He signed a four-year, $58 million contract extension in December. He ranks as the seventh-highest-paid receiver in the NFL, which is fitting given that over the past two seasons, no one has caught more touchdown passes than his 22. With Jordy Nelson now gone, Adams is the Packers' clear-cut No. 1 receiver. -- Rob Demovsky, ESPN Packers reporter

Projected target share: 25 percent. Aaron Rodgers' longtime go-to target, Jordy Nelson, was released, which positions Adams as the Packers' clear top receiver. It's a role Adams played most of 2017, when he handled one-quarter of the team's targets during 14 active weeks. Slot man Randall Cobb is a long shot to beat out Adams for the team lead in targets this season. -- Clay

The top receivers not named Antonio

Antonio Brown is considered the best receiver in the NFL, and for good reason, but these three also can make a case for at least being in the conversation.

Julio Jones: Since the start of 2014, Jones has played the same number of games as Brown (61) and has almost the exact same number of yards (32 fewer) but has done it on 61 fewer receptions, averaging 15.4 yards per reception vs. 13.5 for Brown. Jones also has 106 20-yard receptions during that span (most in the league), compared to 93 for Brown.

DeAndre Hopkins: Since the start of 2015, he's fifth in receptions, third in receiving yards and third in receiving touchdowns despite having the most unstable quarterback situation among the players on this list. Since 2014, he has accounted for the highest percentage of his team's receiving yards in the league (34.7 percent). Brown is third on that list, behind Hopkins and Jones. Hopkins also has the highest share of his team's targets in that span.

Odell Beckham Jr.: Since the start of his career (2014), Beckham has caught a TD pass every 8.2 receptions; Brown has caught one every 10.7. Beckham's TD rate is the best of any player with at least 250 catches over that span. On a per-game basis, if you gave Beckham the same number of games as Brown over this span, he'd have 49 touchdowns since entering the league, the most in the NFL.

Allen Robinson

2018 outlook: The Bears signed veteran Allen Robinson in free agency to be their No. 1 wide receiver. But Robinson, who'll receive $25.2 million in guarantees from Chicago, is still recovering from a torn ACL he suffered last year in Week 1. Robinson did not participate in any team drills -- open to the media -- during the Bears' offseason program, but coach Matt Nagy said on numerous occasions that Robinson will be full-go when the club reports to training camp in July. -- Jeff Dickerson, ESPN Bears reporter

Projected target share: 25 percent. Robinson is the first player on our list who changed teams during the offseason, but there's no doubt he's Chicago's No. 1 wideout after signing a three-year, $42 million contract. The former Jaguar went down with a torn ACL after three snaps last year but ranked top eight in the league in targets in both 2015 and 2016. He handled a 25 percent target share both seasons. -- Clay

Doug Baldwin

2018 outlook: He has led the Seahawks in receiving in five of his seven seasons and barely missed out on his third consecutive 1,000-yard campaign last year. He also gets paid like an elite receiver thanks to a contract that averages $11.5 million and has three seasons left. Baldwin's 29 receiving touchdowns since 2015 are second in the NFL behind Antonio Brown's 31. With Jimmy Graham gone, the Seahawks will need all the TD production they can get out of their No. 1 receiver. -- Brady Henderson, ESPN Seahawks reporter

Projected target share: 24 percent. Baldwin is the only player in this tier who wasn't drafted. Baldwin enters his age-30 campaign after handling a target share of at least 21 percent each of the past four seasons. Though Baldwin's shares haven't been as high as many other clear No. 1 wideouts, he has paced the team in targets in four consecutive seasons, and the likes of Tyler Lockett and Brandon Marshall aren't likely to overtake him in 2018. -- Clay

T.Y. Hilton

2018 outlook: T.Y. Hilton felt the biggest impact of not having starting quarterback Andrew Luck (shoulder) last season. Hilton had 966 receiving yards, which was his lowest total since his rookie year in 2012. Hilton, who still played in his fourth straight Pro Bowl last season, is headed into the fourth year of his six-year, $66 million contract and plans to bounce back from his down 2017 season. It'll help Hilton that Luck, barring any kind of setback, will be the starter, and you can expect Hilton to be used in a variety of ways in new coach Frank Reich's offense. -- Mike Wells, ESPN Colts reporter

Projected target share: 23 percent. Hilton has led Colts wide receivers in targets each of the past five seasons, handling a 23 percent share during the span. His total of 651 targets during the five seasons is seventh-most in the NFL, and no other Colt has more than 262. The likes of Ryan Grant and Chester Rogers aren't threats to his No. 1 standing. -- Clay

Michael Crabtree

2018 outlook: Joe Flacco already has referred to the Ravens' biggest free-agent addition as "the guy," and their rapport has stood out in offseason practices. Crabtree won't be running past many cornerbacks, but he's physical and will fight for contested passes. The best comparable is Anquan Boldin, who led the Ravens in receiving yards in each of his three seasons in Baltimore (2010-12). Crabtree signed a three-year, $21 million contract in March, but it could just be a one-year, $8 million deal if he doesn't pan out this season. -- Jamison Hensley, ESPN Ravens reporter

Projected target share: 23 percent. Crabtree signed a three-year, $21 million contract with Baltimore after pacing Oakland in targets each of the past three seasons and the 49ers each season spanning 2010-12. During weeks he has been active, Crabtree has handled a target share of at least 21 percent all nine seasons of his NFL career. The Ravens revamped their wide receiver room during the offseason, but Crabtree is clearly ahead of John Brown and Willie Snead on the depth chart. -- Clay

Kelvin Benjamin

2018 outlook: This will be a critically important season for Kelvin Benjamin after he has seen his availability and production decline since he set career highs as a rookie in 2014. Staying on the field and avoiding further injury to his knees will be the first priority for Benjamin, but he must also turn his rare combination of size and ability into hard evidence that he is worth the same sort of contract as a slew of his accomplished peers from the 2014 draft signed. Benjamin is entering the final year of his rookie deal, and general manager Brandon Beane is holding off on contract talks until he at least gets a good look at Benjamin in training camp. -- Mike Rodak, ESPN Bills reporter

Projected target share: 23 percent. This one might be tougher to sort out if 2017 second-round pick Zay Jones had a better rookie campaign, but his struggles make it pretty clear that Benjamin is Buffalo's No. 1 wide receiver. Benjamin has experience in the role, handling 27 and 21 percent target shares during his two full seasons in Carolina and a 17 percent share in six "full" games with Buffalo last year. -- Clay

Alshon Jeffery

2018 outlook: Alshon Jeffery played 2017 with a torn rotator cuff and still managed to post 57 catches, 789 yards and nine touchdowns during the regular season and came up big during the team's postseason run. He was rewarded with a four-year, $52 million contract that runs through 2021. The injury kept him from practicing this spring. Coach Doug Pederson said training camp "is going to be real important" for Jeffery. Assuming he returns to full health, he should continue to produce as Carson Wentz's No. 1 wide receiver. -- Tim McManus, ESPN Eagles reporter

Projected target share: 22 percent. Jeffery's 22 percent target share in 2017 doesn't exactly jump off the page, but he saw 26 more targets than No. 2 Nelson Agholor. During weeks he was active, Jeffery averaged a hefty 26 percent share during the past five seasons.

Julian Edelman

2018 outlook: The 32-year-old is facing a four-game suspension to open the season (pending appeal) for violating the NFL's policy on performance-enhancing substances, and he missed all of the 2017 season with a torn ACL. Edelman is one of Tom Brady's go-to guys, as evidenced by his 98-catch season in 2016. He is signed through the 2019 season and is scheduled to earn a base salary of $2 million in both 2018 and 2019. In Edelman's possible absence the first four games, Chris Hogan would elevate to the No. 1 spot. -- Mike Reiss, ESPN Patriots reporter

 

Projected target share: 21 percent (during 12 active weeks). Although Edelman is suspended four games to start the 2018 season, he's here because he fits the bill when active. It might seem surprising to see a Patriot in this tier, but Edelman has been a workhorse in recent years. Including only the weeks he was active, Edelman handled a target share of at least 24 percent each season spanning 2013-16. That includes a massive 29 percent share in 2016, when he ranked third in the league with 157 targets. The likes of No. 2 WR Chris Hogan (has never eclipsed 60 targets in a season) and Jordan Matthews (is not assured a roster spot) aren't realistic threats to Edelman for the No. 1 gig. -- Clay

Tier 2: Not-quite No. 1s

Devin Funchess

2018 outlook: Funchess inherited the No. 1 receiver spot in 2017 when the Panthers traded Kelvin Benjamin to Buffalo. He responded with a career-best 63 catches for 840 yards and eight touchdowns, but he has yet to prove he's a true No. 1. Coach Ron Rivera even said after last season that it remains to be seen whether Funchess is a No. 1 or No. 2. With the addition of Torrey Smith and first-round pick D.J. Moore, Funchess could fall to No. 3. It's a big year for the former second-round pick out of Michigan, entering the final year of his rookie deal. He needs to show more consistency and ability to perform in the clutch if he expects the Panthers to re-sign him after this season. -- David Newton, ESPN Panthers reporter

Projected target share: 22 percent. Carolina appeared to commit to Funchess as its No. 1 wide receiver when it traded Benjamin to Buffalo last season. Funchess went on to handle a 23 percent target share on the year and was on the field for 90 percent of the team's pass plays. Of course, the waters were muddied in April when the team selected Moore with the 24th overall pick of the draft. Funchess figures to enter 2018 as Cam Newton's top wideout, but Moore is expected to play a major role early and could steal away the job if he's up to the task. -- Clay

Marqise Lee

2018 outlook: Lee led the Jaguars in receptions last season (56) and has 119 catches over the past two seasons, but he has just six TD catches in that span. He has not been a deep threat (13.1 yards per catch over the past two seasons) and instead has been more of a catch-and-run guy. Still, he has proven to be a reliable player, has fought through several nagging injuries and should again be the Jags' top pass-catcher in 2018. However, with the addition of receiver Donte Moncrief, tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins and the continued development of receivers Keelan Cole and Dede Westbrook, the ball will be spread around, so Lee's catch total might not get out of the 50s. Lee signed a four-year, $34 million contract ($16.5 million guaranteed) in March, but all of the guaranteed money is in the first two seasons. -- Mike DiRocco, ESPN Jaguars reporter

Projected target share: 21 percent. Lee sits atop the Jaguars' depth chart, but he has yet to eclipse a 19 percent target share or finish top 25 in the league in targets during his four-year career. The Jaguars did commit to Lee long term by signing him to a four-year, $38 million extension while letting Allen Robinson move on to Chicago. However, they also handed Moncrief $9.6 million, spent a second-round pick on D.J. Chark and have Westbrook in the fold. -- Clay

Pierre Garcon

2018 outlook: Garcon is the Niners' most experienced and accomplished receiver but is returning from a neck injury that limited him to eight games in 2017. With Garcon out, Marquise Goodwin emerged as the team's top wideout, especially after Jimmy Garoppolo took over at quarterback. But Garcon and Garoppolo should be able to get on the same page in relatively short order given Garcon's intermediate route-running ability and Garoppolo's accuracy on such throws. Garcon has four years left on the five-year deal he signed in 2017, but every year after 2018 comes in the form of a club option. With Goodwin signing an offseason extension and the Niners using a second-round pick on Dante Pettis, there are options in place should Garcon be unable to produce. But he remains a strong locker room presence and should still be able to be a top target for Garoppolo in 2018, even if his numbers don't approach those of a more "traditional" No. 1 receiver. -- Nick Wagoner, ESPN 49ers reporter

 

Projected target share: 20 percent. Garcon was the 49ers' clear-cut No. 1 wideout this time last year, but Goodwin's emergence and, to a lesser extent, the team's second-round selection of Pettis can't be overlooked. Garcon has averaged a target share of at least 19 percent when active each of the past eight seasons, but Goodwin has eclipsed 17 percent each of the past two years and figures to be right on Garcon's heels for the team lead in 2018. -- Clay

Tier 3: Emerging No. 1 WRs

Amari Cooper

2018 outlook: Sure, Cooper had a down year in 2017, catching a career-low 48 passes for a career-worst 680 yards, but returning coach Jon Gruden still sees the oft-explosive Cooper as a "focal point" of the Raiders' rebuilt passing offense -- a "centerpiece" of the entire offense. "It was cool," Cooper said in OTAs of Gruden's thoughts. "Obviously, as a receiver, you want to go out there and make plays for your team and win. So for him to say that, it really meant a lot to me. I'm just ready to come out here and work and prove that I deserve to have those opportunities." With new receiving mates Jordy Nelson and Martavis Bryant, Cooper could see more time in the slot. Per Pro Football Focus data, Cooper's 2.21 yards per route run from the slot ranked third in the NFL among receivers with 90 or more slot routes run last season. And who can forget Cooper's tour de force against the Kansas City Chiefs of 11 catches on 19 targets for 210 yards and two touchdowns on a Thursday night last season? Not the Raiders, who exercised the fifth-year option for 2019 on Cooper, the No. 4 overall draft pick of the 2015 draft. -- Paul Gutierrez, ESPN Raiders reporter

Projected target share: 24 percent. Gruden is on record that the team is planning on featuring Cooper, but the fourth-year wide receiver has never led his team in targets (falling short to Michael Crabtree all three seasons) and has yet to eclipse a 23 percent target share in a single season (he was at 19 percent during 14 active games last year). Crabtree is gone, but the Raiders signed Nelson and traded for Martavis Bryant. Cooper is positioned to make a leap, but if his inefficiencies continue, this might be more of a committee. -- Clay

Corey Davis

2018 outlook: It's all about potential for Corey Davis, the No. 5 overall pick in the 2017 draft. The Titans are counting on him to make a huge jump in Year 2, becoming their top receiver and a consistent threat for Marcus Mariota. Davis' rookie season was spoiled by injuries, which cost him most of the offseason, all of the preseason and five regular-season games. He finished with 34 catches for 375 yards and no touchdowns in the regular season, but his potential showed in the playoffs when he caught two TDs against the Patriots. Davis is healthy, gaining much-needed chemistry with Mariota. It's not unreasonable to expect Davis to get close to 1,000 yards in Year 2. -- Cameron Wolfe, ESPN Titans reporter

Projected target share: 23 percent. Davis struggled with injuries as a rookie, but there's no question the Titans are expecting the 2017 fifth overall pick to emerge as Mariota's go-to target this year. Davis was on the field for 86 percent of Tennessee's pass plays and averaged a 19 percent target share during the 13 games he was active last year. Rishard Matthews has led Titans' wide receivers in targets each of the past two seasons. -- Clay

Robby Anderson

2018 outlook: Anderson is the closest thing the Jets have to a No. 1 receiver. Already one of the league's top deep threats, Anderson can raise his stature by becoming a better all-around receiver, which will require improved route running. The concerns with him are his off-the-field habits; he has had two arrests in the past 13 months and faces potential league discipline. Anderson is entering the final year of his rookie contract, but he'll be only a restricted free agent, meaning the Jets own his rights through 2019. A long-term deal is unlikely unless he matures off the field. -- Rich Cimini, ESPN Jets reporter

Projected target share: 20 percent. Anderson went undrafted in 2016 but showed flashes on 77 snaps as a rookie before enjoying a breakout 2017 campaign. The Temple product handled a generous, team-high 23 percent target share. Off-field troubles raise questions about Anderson's ability to emerge as a consistent No. 1 wideout, and the team also added Terrelle Pryor Sr. to a wide receiver room that also includes Quincy Enunwa (missed all of last year with a neck injury), Jermaine Kearse and Chad Hansen. -- Clay

DeVante Parker

2018 outlook: Parker has the size (6-foot-3 and 212 pounds) to stand out from the Dolphins' crowded pack of pass-catchers, but calling him a No. 1 receiver after scoring just one touchdown last season would be a stretch. Unless he takes a step forward and lives up to his billing as the No. 14 overall pick in 2015, Parker is likely to be part of a committee approach by Miami at the position that should include newcomers Danny Amendola and Albert Wilson, as well as Kenny Stills. The Dolphins exercised Parker's fifth-year contract option this offseason that would pay him $9.4 million in 2019, but that is not fully guaranteed until next March, and he will need to earn it this season. -- Mike Rodak, ESPN reporter

Projected target share: 19 percent. Jarvis Landry is gone, which opens the door for 2015 first-round pick Parker to finally emerge as Miami's No. 1 wide receiver. Parker has been on the field for 90 percent of the pass plays and has handled a 20 percent target share during 28 "full" games over the past two seasons. The likes of Stills, Wilson and perhaps Amendola will push to lead Miami in targets this season. -- Clay

Josh Doctson

2018 outlook: Keep in mind that the Redskins' top receiving target is tight end Jordan Reed; the passing game goes through him -- when he's healthy. But Doctson is their most talented wideout and plays the X position. Jamison Crowder might end up with more receptions, but he'll do so out of the slot. Doctson missed all but two games his rookie year because of an injury then caught 35 passes with six touchdowns in 2017. Coaches hope new QB Alex Smith will help Doctson by throwing more passes even when Doctson is contested, trusting that he can make the catch. It's possible he could be a 60-catch receiver, but with big plays down the field because of how well he tracks the ball. Doctson is entering his third season; the Redskins will have to decide next spring if they want to pick up his fifth-year option. -- John Keim, ESPN Redskins reporter

 

Projected target share: 18 percent. Doctson was on the field for 93 percent of the Redskins' pass plays and handled an 18 percent target share following a Week 7 promotion last year. Crowder and newcomer Paul Richardson could certainly force a committee here, but there's no question Washington would like its 2016 first-round pick to break out and become the team's clear-cut top receiver in 2018. -- Clay

Tier 4: Committee attack

Josh Gordon/Jarvis Landry

2018 outlook: Numbers from a few years ago point to Josh Gordon as the Browns top receiver, but recent production might actually point to Jarvis Landry, who has averaged 105 catches the past three seasons. The Browns gave Landry a five-year, $75.5 million contract extension and figure to start him opposite Gordon. Landry actually could be the guy who opens up the field for Gordon and lets Gordon provide the big plays while Landry provides the consistent catches. -- Pat McManamon, ESPN Browns reporter

Projected target share: 25/25 percent. Gordon and Landry are different style receivers, but both have No. 1 WR qualities. Gordon led the NFL in receiving in 2013 and ranked eighth in targets during the five weeks he was active last season. He's averaging a massive 28 percent target share over his past 24 games. Landry has handled a target share of at least 27 percent and has finished top 15 at the position in targets, receptions and receiving yards each of the past three years. -- Clay

Adam Thielen/Stefon Diggs

2018 outlook: The 2018 season could make Diggs the next receiver to earn a mega-deal, joining the likes of Davante Adams, Jarvis Landry and others who are earning around $13 million to $15 million per year. Injuries have prevented Diggs from playing all 16 games the past two seasons, and it'll be important for him to stay healthy for his next contract -- whether it's with the Vikings or another team. The Vikings could elect to give him a new contract ahead of training camp like they've done for players in the past and lock him up before he becomes a free agent. If they don't, Diggs could increase his pending payday even further by following up on a strong season with an even better 2018, when he has Kirk Cousins throwing him the ball. Minnesota has the league's top receiver duo between Diggs and Thielen. Keeping those two together, however difficult that might be financially with the salary cap, should certainly be a priority. -- Courtney Cronin, ESPN Vikings reporter

Projected target share: 24/22 percent. Thielen handled a 27 percent target share during his breakout 2017 season, and Diggs has been between 22 and 24 percent when active during his first three NFL seasons. -- Clay

Tyreek Hill/Sammy Watkins

2018 outlook: Hill's numbers might not match those from last season (75-1,183-7) because the Chiefs added another legitimate threat at wide receiver in Watkins, but Hill remains a vital part of the Kansas City offense because of his big-play ability. Hill has two seasons remaining on the rookie contract he signed with the Chiefs in 2016 as a sixth-round draft pick. -- Adam Teicher, ESPN Chiefs reporter

Projected target share: 23/21 percent. Hill isn't your traditional No. 1 wideout, standing at 5-foot-10, 185 pounds and contributing often as a rusher and returner in addition to a large role as a wide receiver. Still, there's no question he emerged as Kansas City's top wideout last year, handling 23 percent of the targets while playing 82 percent of the offensive snaps in 16 games. He'll have more competition for targets this year with 2014 fourth overall pick Watkins in the house. Last season's 15 percent target share was underwhelming, but Watkins was on the field for 88 percent of the Rams' pass plays and handled a 25 percent share while operating as the Bills' clear top wide receiver from 2014-16. -- Clay

Golden Tate/Marvin Jones Jr.

2018 outlook: Since joining the Lions in 2014, Tate is ninth in the league in yards (4,224) and sixth in receptions (372) -- ahead of DeAndre Hopkins, Doug Baldwin, Mike Evans and A.J. Green in catches. What sets him apart is his ability after the catch. In that same time frame, Tate has 2,460 yards after catch -- the most in the NFL. -- Michael Rothstein, ESPN Lions reporter

Projected target share: 22/18 percent. Jones has emerged into one of the game's top deep threats, but it's Tate who has been the target hog in Detroit in recent years. Tate has handled 23 percent of the team's targets since joining the team in 2014, finishing top 10 in the league in receptions all four seasons. Jones is 46 targets behind Tate since signing with Detroit in 2016 but has played more snaps and runs more routes. -- Clay

Robert Woods/Cooper Kupp/Brandin Cooks

2018 outlook: A second-round pick in 2013, Woods spent the first four seasons of his career with the Buffalo Bills, regarded as a No. 2 receiver. But last season, Woods became Jared Goff's go-to target and proved he had top-playmaker potential. He finished 2017 with 56 catches for 781 yards and five touchdowns -- including 52-yard and 94-yard scores -- despite missing three games because of a shoulder injury. Woods is in the second season of a five-year deal worth $34 million. He'll have to share more of his targets in 2018, as Goff and newly acquired deep threat Brandin Cooks developed some chemistry this offseason, but expect Woods to remain Goff's favorite target. -- Lindsey Thiry, ESPN Rams reporter

Projected target share: 21/20/19 percent. The Rams had a third wide receiver on the field when passing a league-high 92 percent of the time last season. This means all three of Woods, Kupp and Cooks (who was signed to replace Watkins) will be near-full-time players in 2018. Cooks has some experience as a No. 1 receiver but has never eclipsed a 20 percent target share through four seasons. Woods averaged a share in the 19-20 percent range during his first four years in Buffalo before breaking out and pacing the Rams at 23 percent last year. Slot man Kupp handled a 20 percent share as a rookie last season. -- Clay

Allen Hurns/Terrance Williams

2018 outlook: The Cowboys say they will go with a committee approach at receiver, but Allen Hurns is the only wideout with a 1,000-yard season to his credit, with 1,031 yards in 2015. He did not top 500 yards in his final two seasons with Jacksonville, which played a part in his release, although he missed 11 games in 2016 and '17. The Cowboys don't need him to replace the 2012-14 Dez Bryant, who averaged more than 1,200 yards and double-digit touchdowns, but they will need him to be the leader of the committee. He had a good start to his work with Dak Prescott in the offseason program but will need to continue that once training camp begins. -- Todd Archer, ESPN Cowboys reporter

Projected target share: 19/15 percent. Dez Bryant and his career 25 percent target share are gone, which means the Cowboys' wide receiver competition is wide open in 2018. Hurns averaged a share right at 18 percent during each of his four seasons in Jacksonville, Williams hasn't eclipsed 18 percent during five years in Dallas, and Cole Beasley has cleared 14 percent only once in his career (21 percent in 2016). The three veterans and rookie Michael Gallup figure to lead the unit in 2018, but there might not be much separation in targets between the No. 1 and No. 4 option. -- Clay



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