2014 NFL Win Totals Strength Of Schedule
Marc Lawrence
Posted: 2014-07-24

A New Take On Weighing NFL Strength Of Schedule

When measuring each NFL team's strength of schedule for the 2014 season, the common approach is to collectively add-up each opponent's win-loss record from the previous season to help determine each opponent's potential potency.

Another approach is weighing each opponent's season win totals for the upcoming season and tallying the accumulative amount of wins.

It's my contention this represents a truer methodology.  After all, which is more relative: knowing how an opponent fared in battle last year or the expected degree of difficulty awaiting them this year?

Super Season Win Totals

For the purpose of this study we refer to the opening 2014 NFL season win totals posted by Jay Kornegay of the Super Book in Las Vegas.

The teams are ranked from top to bottom based on the most projected season win totals to the fewest.

Team Overall  Home Away Division Non Div
Arizona  138 69.5 68.5  58 80
Oakland  136.5 59* 77.5* 54 82.5
St Louis 136.5 68 68.5 58 78.5
Carolina 133.5 66.5 67 49 84.5
San Francisco 133 67 66.5 52 81.5
Seattle 133 67 66 51 82
Chicago 132.5 64.5 68 48 84.5
Kansas City 131.5 67 64.5 47 84.5
Minnesota 131.5 67 64.5 52 79.5
Dallas 130.5 68.5 62 48 82.5
Tampa Bay 130.5 66.5 64 51 79.5
NY Giants 130 68 62 49 81
NY Jets 129.5 65.5 64 50 79.5
Buffalo 129 64 65 51 78
Cincinnati 129 62 67 47 82
Denver 129 63 66 42 87
New Orleans 129 67 62 46 83
Philadelphia 129 61 68 46 83
San Diego 129 64 64.5 48 81
Atlanta 128.5 55* 73* 49 79
Green Bay 128.5 64.5 64 44 84.5
Jacksonville 128.5 56.5* 72* 48 80.5
Denver  128 63 65 48 80
Washington  127 61.5 65.5 49 78
New England 125.5 62.5 63 43 82.5
Baltimore 125 59.5 65.5 48 77
Miami 125 64.5 60.5 48 77
Indianapolis 125 63.5 60 38 86
Cleveland 124.5 64.5 60 52 72.5
Pittsburgh 124 65.5 58.5 48 76
Tennessee 122.5 59 63.5 43 79.5
Houston 118 61.5 56.5 41 77

* reflects abscence of true home and away games due to games being played in London.  These games were logged as away games for these particular teams.

In conclusion, it appears Arizona is set to square of against the strongest projected foes, and Houston the weakest.

It is also interesting to note that Tennessee's home slate looks to be the softest, with Arizona's the most difficult.  On the flip side, Arizona and St. Louis should face the most problematic task away from home, with Houston the easiest.

Arizona and St. Louis team up once again to represent the most difficult division contests, with Indianapolis with the cushiest division slate.  On the non-division front Denver faces the largest degree of difficulty, with Cleveland the least demanding.

There you have it, a different slant on breaking down the true strength of schedule for NFL teams this 2014 season.



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