Marc Lawrence Never Lost NBA Crush Play! - Saturday
 
Play - Toronto Raptors (Game 501).
Edges - Raptors: 18-9-1 ATS away in the playoffs with same season loss revenge of 20 or more points, including 7-0 ATS as dog off less than 8 points with a winning record…  Bucks: 1-6 SUATS home playoffs off win, including 0-2 SUATS as a favorite. With away teams in Game Four, off a loss of 20 or more points, 23-11 ATS in the playoffs, we recommend a strong 3* play on Toronto.  Thank you and good luck as always.


> Wow. Marc’s powerful database has isolated a jaw-dropping NBA Situational Super Play on Saturday night’s NBA playoff card that has won the money 100% of the time in tonight’s situation. You know exactly what to do! 
  2017-04-22 15:00:00

Marc Lawrence MLB Top of The Ticket Killer Play! - Saturday
 
Play - NY Mets w/DeGrom (Game 904).
Edges - Mets: DeGrom 1.89 ERA and 0.84 WHIP this season with 22 K’s and 4 BB’s; and 4-0 last four team starts in this series… Nationals: Gonzales 3-10 last 13 away team starts, and 1-3 last four away team starts during April. With DeGrom off a masterful spring in which he posted a 2.93 ERA and a 0.91 WHIP to go along with 17 K’s and 2 BB’s, we recommend a strong 3* play in the NY Mets.  Thank you and good luck as always. 


> Oh my.  Marc shares another mind-blowing NBA Crush Play on Saturday’s playoff card that will truly make your day.  Don’t miss out!
  2017-04-22 16:05:00

Nelly's Saturday NBA Daytime Delivery - April 22
 

04/22/17 Nelly's 8* #501 Toronto Raptors + over Milwaukee Bucks 3:00 PM ET

The Bucks turned in a truly dominant Thursday night Game 3 performance, going up by 20 in the 1st quarter and never looking back in a 104-77 rout to take a 2-1 lead in the series. The energy at the Bradley Center won't be quite the same for an early afternoon game on a beautiful spring Saturday and the Bucks will have a hard time replicating a nearly 53 percent shooting performance that included 12 3-point makes at a high percentage. Toronto had a terrible shooting game to offset a rebounding edge and falling behind early led to sloppy play with 15 turnovers for the Raptors. It is certainly too soon to write off a 51-win Raptors team with a strong road record and the best scoring differential in the Eastern Conference. The Raptors are the superior defensive team in this matchup and a young and inexperienced Bucks team that hasn't been in this position could see a letdown after a quick turnaround ahead of Game 4. Despite the ugly result Thursday the Raptors are 11-4 ATS on the road vs. winning teams with this line growing a bit after the Game 3 result to put further value on the higher seed. The Bucks might be the better team right now and certainly are a serious threat to advance but after an embarrassing showing the Raptors are likely to get back in this series on Saturday.

Nelly's rates our Playbook Picks 1-10 stars. It is a long season so please have a money management plan and be conservative and conscientious with your wagers. Thanks for playing with Nelly's Sportsline and best of luck. 

 

  2017-04-22 15:00:00

Nelly's Saturday MLB Daytime Delivery - April 22
 

04/22/17 Nelly's 8* #929 New York Yankees (Pineda) - over Pittsburgh Pirates (Taillon) 4:05 PM ET

Jameson Taillon was the #2 overall pick in the 2010 draft and as a rookie he showed some promise with decent results in 2016 in 18 starts. 2017 is looking like a breakout season but his 0.90 ERA is certainly not sustainable as it coincides with a 3.16 FIP. Taillon’s strong minor league strikeout numbers haven't translated so far with a modest 7.2 K/9 and a 3.15 BB/9 is a bit concerning for the 25 year old. He has benefited from a low .273 BABIP and a 93 percent strand rate as while Taillon’s future is bright, he isn't likely a legitimate Cy Young contender this season. Saturday's afternoon matchup is a tough one with the Yankees posting some of the best offensive numbers across the board in baseball and featuring MLB's very best run differential this season. New York hasn't been as strong as at home but Pittsburgh hasn't featured much of a home field edge and has been one of baseball's lowest scoring teams. Michael Pineda finished 6-12 last season but with a FIP more than a run lower than his ERA. He had one of AL's best strikeout rates at 10.6 K/9 and so far in 18-plus innings this season that rate is at 11.3. His ERA is more respectable this season at 3.44 but again with a much lower FIP including an xFIP of 1.95. The results have been a bit maddening for Pineda with his susceptibility to home runs but he still has the potential to be a front-line starter and his past two starts for the Yankees have been especially sharp. Already struggling on offense with below 3.3 runs scored per game the Pirates is dealing with the recent suspension of Starling Marte, one of the team's best hitters and also a gold glove defender. The Yankees lack the big names of past seasons but the numbers suggest this may be one of MLB's best teams and Taillon certainly looks like a candidate for regression in the coming weeks which keeps nice near-even value on New York Saturday. 

Nelly's rates our Playbook Picks 1-10 stars. It is a long season so please have a money management plan and be conservative and conscientious with your wagers. Thanks for playing with Nelly's Sportsline and best of luck. 

  2017-04-22 16:05:00

Nelly's Saturday NBA Game 3 Knockout - April 22
 

04/22/17 Nelly's 8* #503 Washington Wizards + over Atlanta Hawks 5:30 PM ET

The Hawks had a golden opportunity to steal Game 2 of this series as they led 78-74 heading into the fourth quarter on the road. Washington outscored Atlanta 35-23 in the final frame to win and cover even with Atlanta handed 38 free throw attempts in the game. While Washington hasn't been a great performer on the road the Hawks can certainly make a strong case as the worst team in the NBA playoff field. In the regular season Atlanta featured the fourth worst offensive efficiency in the league, only narrowly edging out Brooklyn, Orlando, and Philadelphia. Washington meanwhile was a top 10 caliber squad on both sides of the ball and this is a talent-rich squad that has some inconsistency while featuring a very high ceiling. Washington has now won five in a row in this series since losing an October game in Atlanta and the Hawks are just 23-18 S/U at Philips Arena. After going 6-1 ATS in the first month of the season as a home favorite the Hawks are 7-21 ATS since late November in the home favorite role as this was a team that struggled down the stretch with home defeats vs. marginal competition before scoring a few critical wins vs. teams that were resting players to hold on to a playoff spot. This may be a 4/5 matchup but the gap between these squads looks substantial and Washington has a great chance to win while getting points.

Nelly's rates our Playbook Picks 1-10 stars. It is a long season so please have a money management plan and be conservative and conscientious with your wagers. Thanks for playing with Nelly's Sportsline and best of luck. 

  2017-04-22 17:30:00

The Opening Tip In Saturday’s NBA Play-off Action from James Patrick Sports
  Wizards vs. Hawks 5:30 pm est. TNT
The Atlanta Hawks are in a big hole in their first-round playoff series against the Washington Wizards but at least they're heading home. After breaking the (60)-win barrier and reaching the Eastern Conference finals to set franchise watermarks, the Hawks tapered to (48) wins last season. Remember that the Hawks have been steady winners since 2009, but still haven't taken the league by storm. Washington had high expectations this season. The Wizards do have plenty of talent on hand and they have a much-improved defense which will keep it competitive in a lot postseason season games this season. The Washington Wizards believe they've closed the gap between them and the Atlanta Hawks. Bradley Beal and John Wall give Washington a youthful, potent backcourt – the two combined are averaging (44.2) points per game. The DC “Wiz Kids” let the Hawks have some revenge for ending their season a couple of years ago in first pair of games in this series. Atlanta does have the next two games at home where the Hawks are (23-18) this season. Turnovers have been a big stumbling block for Atlanta in the first two games. The Hawks turned it over (16) times in the second game, six of them in the fourth quarter.
(5*) Pot of Gold Play. #504. Take Atlanta Hawks vs. Wizards
  2017-04-22 17:30:00

Jim Feist NBA TV Showdown (91-53 NBA run) - Saturday!
 

04/22 05:30 PM EST   NBA   (503) WASHINGTON WIZARDS VS (504) ATLANTA HAWKS.
Take: (504) ATLANTA HAWKS.
Reason: Washington is in command but a poor defensive team and a poor road team. Atlanta played well in Game 2 and is delighted to be home. Hawks PG Dennis Schroder averaged 24 points and 7.5 assists in the first two games. Atlanta is a strong defensive team, #10 in points allowed, fifth in field goal shooting defense in the regular season. And the home team is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Play Atlanta.     
  2017-04-22 14:30:00

Jim Feist's 2-Team MLB Double Play - Saturday
 
4/22 07:05 PM EST   MLB   (905) ATLANTA BRAVES VS (906) PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES.
Take: (906) PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES.
Reason: Atlanta (6-10) is 2-7 on the road. The Braves are 15-42 in their last 57 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. The Philadelphia Phillies vie for their fourth win in five games overall. Phillies RH Jerad Eickhoff (2.75 ERA) has pitched well in all three outings this season, yielding seven runs (six earned) on 16 hits while striking out 18 in 19 2/3 innings. Play Philadelphia.     
 
04/22 08:10 PM EST  MLB   (911) SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS VS (912) COLORADO ROCKIES.
Take: (912) COLORADO ROCKIES
Reason: San Francisco (6-11) is 3-7 on the road, has struggled badly and just got the news their ace is out a while. Giants LH Matt Moore (1-2, 4.26 ERA) owns a 1-2 record and 6.86 ERA in four career starts versus the Rockies. The Giants are 7-19 in their last 26 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game. Colorado (11-6) has won 6 in a row at home against a lefty. Rockies 22-year-old righty Antonio Senzatela (2-0, 2.37 ERA) has been sharp, coming off a victory at San Francisco on Sunday, when he gave up three runs and seven hits in seven frames. Play Colorado.     
  2017-04-22 19:00:00

Fargo's 10* NBA Saturday Afternoon Dominator (+$37,404 NBA Run)
  Toronto never led in Game Three and put up one of their worst offensive performances in playoff history as the Raptors scored 46 points through the first three quarters. They went into halftime down 57-30 which was just four points shy of their biggest halftime deficit in playoff history but we can expect a rebound today as this series is far from over and as bad as the Raptors have looked to some, they can gain home court advantage back today with a victory. Milwaukee has covered all three games in this series thus far and clearly had the energy in Game Three but this is a game where experience should come through. Kyle Lowry (44), DeMar DeRozan (31), DeMarre Carroll (47), Jonas Valanciunas (23) and Serge Ibaka (89) came into the series with 234 games of playoff experience while Milwaukee brought in just 28 games of playoff experience. The fact that this is a day game definitely helps the road team as night games tend to be a lot more frenzied. Toronto has covered four of its last five games following a loss while the Bucks are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. 10* (501) Toronto Raptors
  2017-04-22 15:00:00

#1 RANKED 2016 ROB V: EARLY 13-0 NBA GAME 4 Banger System
  The Early NBA Game 4 power system play is on Toronto. Game 501 at 3:05 eastern. Hold you nose. Why would anyone want to play on this DOG Toronto team that has laid some real eggs the last few seasons in the Playoffs? For one, Game 4 road teams off a 23+ point loss have covered 18 of 22 since 1991 and are 8-0 straight up and ats vs a team seeded 5 or worse like Milwaukee. The Raptors do have a win here this week and should play much better in this game. They fit a number of systems that pertain to teams off a 20+ point loss. Throw in the fact that the Bucks are 0-5 straight up and ats at home off a home game where they allowed 80 or less and the Raptors are 5-1 ats on the road off a road game scoring 80 or less and we start to see that this DOG Toronto is LIVE Today. Take the Points.
  2017-04-22 15:05:00

Doug Upstone's NBA Guaranteed Saturday Special
 

#504 Hawks -2.5

In both losses to Washington, Atlanta was poised to cover against Washington, but poor offensive execution doomed them in the fourth quarter, along with too many turnovers. Returning back home, I think the Hawks clean up the miscues and end up winning by five, for their lone victory of the series. 

  2017-04-22 17:30:00

Mark Franco's NBA Triple Play Playoff Package
 

#502

Bucks – 2

The Milwaukee Bucks are viewed as a team on the rise with a promising future but they appear intent on fast-forwarding their progress. Milwaukee aims to take a 3-1 series lead over visiting Toronto on Saturday after steamrolling the Raptors 104-77 in Game 3.

The sixth-seeded Bucks last won a playoff series in 2001 but are halfway to an upset of the third-seeded Raptors after putting on a whipping in which they led by 20 points after one quarter and held Toronto 30 first-half points.

Toronto All-Star shooting guard DeMar DeRozan missed all eight of his field-goal attempts, with that fact qualifying as one of the most impressive qualities of Milwaukee's solid victory. Toronto was ice cold from the outset while shooting 33.8 percent from the field in the embarrassing effort.

Shooting guard Khris Middleton scored 20 points in consecutive games as he provides complementary scoring help for All-Star small forward Giannis Antetokounmpo. The "Greek Freak" was 7-of-10 shooting while contributing 19 points and eight rebounds and is averaging 23.7 points and 10.3 rebounds. Antetokounmpo's play energizes a Milwaukee club that somehow got better after losing standout power forward Jabari Parker to a season-ending knee injury and saw its confidence grow with a 14-point road victory in Game 1.

Raptors are 6-19-1 ATS in their last 26 Conference Quarterfinals games and are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 1 days rest. Bucks are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 vs. NBA Atlantic. Raptors are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings.

#505

Spurs – 4.5

The Memphis Grizzlies needed a spark heading home down 0-2 in a best-of-seven playoff series, and coach David Fizdale provided one with a postgame rant about the officiating. The Grizzlies will try to ride that spark to a second straight win and even the series when they host the second-seeded San Antonio Spurs in Game 4 on Saturday.

The Spurs ran away with the first game and controlled most of the second but could not enforce the pace in Game 3. San Antonio coach Gregg Popovich grew frustrated enough that he pulled his starters less than a minute into the third quarter as the game began to get out of hand. Don’t look for that to happen again tonight.

San Antonio was only down four points at the half before a pair of turnovers and a bad defensive possession prompted Popovich to pull his starters, leading to a third quarter in which the Spurs were outscored 31-17.

None of San Antonio's starters ended up playing more than 30 minutes in the loss so they will be fresh here in game four.

Spurs are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Grizzlies are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win.

#507

Warriors – 6

The Golden State Warriors made the decision to sit Kevin Durant with a minor calf injury in Game 2 and turned out to have no problem winning a playoff game without one of their All-Stars in an easy win. The Warriors will try to earn a commanding 3-0 lead in the best-of-seven series when they visit the Portland Trail Blazers on Saturday.

Golden State got contributions up and down the roster in Game 2 and breezed to a 110-81 win, putting on a defensive clinic in the second half and holding the Trail Blazers to 12 points in the third quarter as it pulled away.

The Trail Blazers, who blamed themselves for missing shots and mostly brushed off the sub-par showing, understand how important Saturday's Game 3 became when they fell on Wednesday. I just don’t think they are good enough to hang with the Warriors.

Durant said he would have been able to go in Game 2 but the team decided to take the cautious approach and is going to give it a go tonight.

Portland's star backcourt of Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum combined for 75 points in Game 1 but was held to 23 on 9-of-34 shooting in Game 2.

Warriors are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games and are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games overall. Trail Blazers are 7-18-2 ATS in their last 27 Conference Quarterfinals games. Warriors are 11-5 ATS in the last 16 meetings in Portland.

 

  2017-04-22 15:00:00

Saturday Night MLB 10* Total of the Week
 

Yankees (Pineda) @ Pirates (Tallion) 7:05 PM ET

Game# 929-930

Play On: Under 7.0 (10*)

After a shaky 2017 debut, Michael Pineda has been superb in his last 2 starts. During those outings, the Yankees hurler had a 1.84 ERA and 0.61 WHIP with a 17:1 strikeout to walk ratio. The Yankees bullpen has been terrific since this season began, compiling a brilliant 1.38 ERA as a staff, and they’ve registered an impressive 55 strikeouts in just 45 2/3 innings.

Pittsburgh starter Jameson Tallion has been sensational during his first 3 starts of the season, and that’s proven by his microscopic 0.90 ERA during those outings. Pittsburgh’s bullpen has been lights out over their last 7 games by posting a combined 0.52 ERA. Bet on this game to go under the total for a 10* Top Play wager.

  2017-04-22 19:05:00

Rickenbach MLB *EARLIEST CASH* Saturday! (+$10,350 MLB Run!)
  Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Saturday 8* OVER the total in Minnesota Twins vs Detroit Tigers @ 2:10 ET - A match-up of southpaws here with Adalberto Mejia going up against Matthew Boyd. The Tigers are the #1 team in the American League for slugging percentage versus lefties as they have a .454 slugging percentage against southpaws so far this season. Detroit should pound Mejia as he has walked 5 and given up 6 hits for a total of 11 baserunners in less than 7 innings of work in his 2 starts this season. The Twins got the win yesterday by a 6-3 count and that was the 3rd straight over for Detroit and their 6th over in their last 8 games. Their bullpen continues to be an issue and the Tigers pen currently ranks last in the league with a 6.79 ERA on the season. Each of these teams is 4-1 this season in their games against left-handed starters so they'll have plenty of confidence at the plate. It will be a rather mild afternoon in Minnesota with the wind blowing out and I look for another one to fly over the total today as the over improves to 7-2 in Tigers road games this season. The past 3 seasons combined the Twins are 30-20 to the over in home games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. 8* OVER the total in Minnesota early Saturday afternoon
  2017-04-22 14:10:00

Rickenbach NBA *EARLIEST CASH* Saturday! (+$24,160 NBA Run!) 3 ET!
  Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Saturday 8* Toronto Raptors (+) @ Milwaukee Bucks @ 3 ET - The last 6 times the Raptors have been held under 40% from the field they've responded every single time with a win, a perfect 6-0 SU mark. Toronto did win the battle of the boards again in Game Three and I look for them to be even more aggressive tonight after the embarrassing loss at Milwaukee by 27 points in Game 3. The Raptors are 6-3 SU this season when off of a loss by a double digit margin. The Bucks are 7-18 ATS the last 3 seasons when they are off of a game where they allowed 85 points or less. The Raptors are known for "ups and downs" in playoff series but, as they've done in the past, they'll make the proper adjustments and come up huge in Game Four after that embarrassing Game 3 loss. Look for the Raptors to improve to 7-0 SU the L7 times they've been held under 40% from the field but I'll also gladly grab the couple points being offered here in case they fall just short in a heart-breaker. 8* TORONTO
  2017-04-22 15:00:00

Rickenbach NHL *EARLIEST CASH* Saturday! (86% NHL Run!) 3 ET!
  Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NHL Saturday 8* OVER 5 goals +125 in Minnesota Wild vs St Louis Blues @ 3:05 ET - Things are getting very chippy in this series and the fact that it is still "do or die" time for Minnesota ensures a rather aggressive game plan here for the Wild. I am well aware of the fact that each of the first four games in this series have stayed under the total but I also feel the odds makers are keeping this total at a 5 with good reason. They're expecting the same thing that I am, a little more scoring in game 5. After losing 2-0 in Game 4, this will be the 16th time this season the Blues are playing with home loss revenge. So far only 4 of the 15 games have resulted in an under! Especially with St Louis off of being shutout I look for a huge effort here. But the Wild are going to match the Blues in terms of aggression as they play yet another elimination game. Each team only had 2 power plays in Game 4 but I expect that to change here as the physicality continues to increase with the Wild finally having gotten into the win column in this series. The over is 18-9 this season when Minny is off of a win by a multiple goal margin. This is a contrarian play but something tells me this one is going to get crazy and I love having the big plus money here with this totals selection. 8* OVER the total in Minnesota early Saturday
  2017-04-22 15:05:00

Rickenbach 10* MLB *Daytime Dominator* Saturday TOP! Off 3-0 SWEEP!
  Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Saturday 10* Top Play Pittsburgh Pirates Money Line (+) vs New York Yankees @ 4:05 ET - The Pirates won 6-3 yesterday and already the early action here indicates many are backing the Yankees and looking for the Bronx Bombers to bounce right back. Of course the Yankees had been hot but, in addition to a starting pitching edge for Pittsburgh (more on that in a moment) it is also interesting that the Pirates have been an "all or nothing" team this season. What I mean by that is that the Bucs have either swept their opponent or been swept in every single series so far this season. Don't be surprised if that trend continues in this series! The Pirates have Jameson Taillon on the mound this afternoon and he had a 2.86 ERA in his 11 home starts last season while holding opponents to a .228 batting average! Overall, Taillon has been fantastic early this season with a 0.90 ERA in his first 3 starts. The Yankees will have Michael Pineda on the mound and he has pitched great at home but got roughed up in his lone road start and, truth be told, this is nothing new for Pineda. The Yanks right-hander went 2-7 on the road last season and got hit at a .275 clip. In 2015 he was hit at a .293 clip in road games! Look for Pineda to again struggle on the road here as the Yankees drop to 2-6 in road games this season while the Pirates improve to 6-3 in day games on the year. 10* PITTSBURGH
  2017-04-22 16:05:00

Rickenbach 10* NBA *Contrarian Crusher* EARLY Saturday! (24-8, 75% Run!)
  Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA 10* Top Play Atlanta Hawks (-) vs Washington Wizards @ 5:30 ET - The Hawks lost the turnover battle in each of the first two games and that proved to be the difference maker in the two losses, each by single digits. They truly had a great shot at winning the 2nd game outright but lost the game and the cover late in that one. Look for Atlanta to respond now that they're back home where they've won 4 straight games and also covered 3 straight. The home team has won 6 of the last 7 meetings between these teams and all the games have been decided by at least 3 points. The low line here makes sense considering the Wizards were favored by about 5 or 6 at home but the fact is the low number gives great line value to a solid home team. Atlanta is 93-43 SU in home games the last 3 seasons combined. The Wizards are 11-21 SU the last 32 times they've been a dog. That said, any SU loss is likely to also result in an ATS loss for Washington here considering the low number posted on this game. The Hawks are 3-1 ATS the last 4 times they've been held to 40.5% or less from the field. After a poor shooting performance in Game 2, and hungry and highly motivated for a win to get back in this series and avoid the 'death wish' of a 3-0 hole, look for thee Hawks to respond and get the big home win here. 10* ATLANTA
  2017-04-22 17:30:00

Ryan’s 10* SIM TITAN RD1 Game of the Year
 

10* graded play on Milwaukee (502) as they take on Toronto in Game 4 of their best-of-seven playoff series set to start at 3:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Milwaukee will win this game by at least 7 points.

 

Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points

In Game 3, Toronto shot 33.8% and Toronto shot 52.7% in Milwaukee’s blowout 104-77 win in Game 3. Teams, like Milwaukee, who have covered three straight ATS, and are coming off a game as defined by Game 3 above, are an incredible 8-0 ATS in Game 4.

 

 

Date

Day

Season

Team

Opponent

Site

Final

Line

Total

ATS Margin

OU Margin

SU

ATS

OU

Apr 22, 2017

Sat

2016

Bucks

Raptors

home

-2.0

195.5

May 05, 2012

Sat

2011

Spurs

Jazz

away

102-90

-6.0

202.0

6.0

-10.0

W

W

U

Apr 16, 2011

Sat

2010

Mavericks

Trailblazers

home

89-81

-5.0

186.0

3.0

-16.0

W

W

U

May 06, 2010

Thu

2009

Magic

Hawks

home

112-98

-9.5

189.5

4.5

20.5

W

W

O

May 09, 2009

Sat

2008

Cavaliers

Hawks

away

97-82

-9.5

181.0

5.5

-2.0

W

W

U

Apr 29, 2009

Wed

2008

Nuggets

Pelicans

home

107-86

-10.5

197.5

10.5

-4.5

W

W

U

Apr 22, 2006

Sat

2005

Bulls

Heat

away

106-111

8.0

193.5

3.0

23.5

L

W

O

Apr 19, 2004

Mon

2003

Spurs

Grizzlies

home

87-70

-10.0

173.5

7.0

-16.5

W

W

U

Apr 18, 2004

Sun

2003

Timberwolves

Nuggets

home

106-92

-10.0

186.5

4.0

11.5

W

W

O

 

 

Other Fundamental and Technical Discussion Points

If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board Milwaukee.

 

  2017-04-22 15:00:00

Jim Feist's NHL 3-Team Powerhouse Pounder - Saturday!
 
4/22 08:05 PM  EST   NHL   (51) MONTREAL CANADIENS VS (52) NEW YORK RANGERS.
Take: (52) NEW YORK RANGERS.
Reason: Montreal may have won a division title and is the higher seed, but they outscored opponents by +26 this season. Captain Max Pacioretty is still looking for his first goal of the series. In contract, New York finished fourth in their division but outscored opponents +36. New York is #4 in the NHL in goals scored, #10 on the power play and #12 in goals allowed, outstanding balance across the board. Mika Zibanejad scored at 14:22 of overtime to give the New York Rangers a 3-2 victory over the Montreal Canadiens on Thursday night in Game 5 of their first-round playoff series. The noose is tightening on Montreal, letting 2-1 lead in the series slip away. Play the NY Rangers.     

04/22 10:35 PM EST    NHL   (57) EDMONTON OILERS VS (58) SAN JOSE SHARKS.
Take: (57) EDMONTON OILERS.
Reason: Edmonton is strong all around, #8 in goals scored and allowed, #5 on the power play during the regular season. They rallied from a 3-1 deficit to steal Game 5 to go up 3-2 in the series. The Oilers are on a 15-4 run, 20-7 playing on one day of rest. San Jose is #19 in goals scored, #25 on the power play, and has been dealing with injuries to key players. And the Sharks are 5-12 against the Western Conference. Play Edmonton.     

04/22 10:35 PM EST    NHL   (57) EDMONTON OILERS VS (58) SAN JOSE SHARKS.
Take: over the total.
Reason: It's turned into a high scoring series, with scores of 7-0 and 4-3 the last two games. Edmonton is strong on offense, #8 in goals scored, #5 on the power play during the regular season. They rallied from a 3-1 deficit to steal Game 5 to go up 3-2 in the series. The Oilers are on a 5-2-4 run over the total while the Over is 11-5-4 in the Sharks last 20 Conference Quarterfinals games. And the over is 8-3-1 when these teams clash in San Jose. Play Edmonton/San Jose Over the total.

  2017-04-22 20:00:00

Fargo's 10* NBA Saturday Enforcer (+$37,404 NBA Run)
  Laying points on the road in the playoffs is tough to swallow at times but the advantages are there if the situation is right and this is one of those times. After annihilating Memphis in the first two games of this series, the Spurs were competitive for a half in Game Three before the Grizzlies pulled away and eventually won by 11 points. The home team has won all seven meetings this season but the first of the three home wins for Memphis, San Antonio was without Kawhi Leonard so there is an asterisk beside that one. The Spurs have been a great team bouncing back from defeat and are actually the best in the NBA over the last two seasons as they are 30-9 over their 39 games following a loss. And they have been at their best following bad losses. The Spurs looked nothing like the team that won 63 games during the regular season as while they remained competitive early, their offense sputtered throughout the second half. Memphis came in with more energy following the rant from head coach David Fizdale after the Game Two defeat and it is pretty safe to say we will not be seeing a flat Spurs team on Saturday. The Spurs are 5-1 ATS in their last six games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game while the Grizzlies are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following an ATS win. 10* (505) San Antonio Spurs
  2017-04-22 20:05:00

ROB VINCILETTI: 100% 5* MLB TOTALS SYSTEM + 5 Big Angles
  The MLB Totals Play is on the Under in the Cleveland at Chicago game. Rotation numbers 917/918 at 7:10 eastern. This game applies to a powerful totals system that plays under for road favorites at -140 or higher with a total of 8 or less off a road favored win at -140 or more by 2+ runs if the total was 8 or less and the opponent is off a home dog loss by 2+ runs and scored 2 or less while getting 4 or less hits. Right here the system is 14-2 under since 2004. If the home team had 0 errors in that loss the system goes perfect. Cleveland has gone under in 5 of 6 on the road off a 2+ run road win and 5 of 7 as a road favorite of -175 or more. Chicago has stayed under in 8 of 10 vs winning teams and 3 of 3 at home of the total ids 8 to 8.5. The Sox hit just .184 vs right handers. In the series 3 of 4 this year went under. Carrasco for Cleveland has pitched under in all 3 starts this year with a 2.33 Era. Shields for Chicago has a solid 1.62 era. Play this one under tonight.
  2017-04-22 19:10:00

ROB VINCILETTI: NBA 100% ROUND 1 GAME of the YEAR
  The NBA Power system Play is on the San Antonio Spurs money line. Game 505 at 8:05 eastern. The Spurs are a nice vale here on the Money line as opposed to laying 3-4 points. The Spurs are 11-1 ats as a road Favorite off a road favored spread loss by 10+ points and have covered 5 of 6 after allowing 100 or more. The Grizzlies are 1-4 ats at home off a home dog spread win of 10 or more and have failed to cover 5 of 6 of a spread win. The Spurs slept walked though game 3 but should put forth a much better effort in this one. As for the system we note that conference road teams that scored 90 or more and are off a spread loss as a road favorite are 10-0 since 1989 winning by an average 18 points vs an opponent that covered the spread by 7+ points and had 10 or less turnovers. In the Playoffs game 4 home dogs off a home dog win have been poor plays historically. So we will look for the Spurs to bounce back tonight.
Spurs are a Money line play tonight at -155 to -160
  2017-04-22 20:05:00

Saturday Night MLB 10* Total of the Week
 

Yankees (Pineda) @ Pirates (Tallion) 7:05 PM ET

Game# 929-930

Play On: Under 7.0 (10*)

After a shaky 2017 debut, Michael Pineda has been superb in his last 2 starts. During those outings, the Yankees hurler had a 1.84 ERA and 0.61 WHIP with a 17:1 strikeout to walk ratio. The Yankees bullpen has been terrific since this season began, compiling a brilliant 1.38 ERA as a staff, and they’ve registered an impressive 55 strikeouts in just 45 2/3 innings.

Pittsburgh starter Jameson Tallion has been sensational during his first 3 starts of the season, and that’s proven by his microscopic 0.90 ERA during those outings. Pittsburgh’s bullpen has been lights out over their last 7 games by posting a combined 0.52 ERA. Bet on this game to go under the total for a 10* Top Play wager.

  2017-04-22 19:05:00

Saturday NBA Playoffs 5* Golden Total
 

San Antonio @ Memphis 8:05 PM ET

Game# 505-506

Play On: Under 188.0 (5*)

The total in this game is so low for good reason. The pace of the first 3 games of this series has been played at a snail’s pace. San Antonio has averaged an extremely low 70 field goal attempts per game, and Memphis has hoisted up a still below NBA standard 79.3 per contest. Game 3 was won by Memphis 105-94 and easily went over the closing total of 188.0. However, Memphis has gone under the total in 7 of its last 8 games after going over during their previous outing. Furthermore, Memphis has gone under in 5 straight following a game in which they scored 100 points or more, and those contests averaged a combined 186.6 points per outing, and stayed under by an average of 9.3 points per contest. Bet on this game to go under the total for a 5* wager.

  2017-04-22 20:05:00

Joe D'
 
  2017-04-22 20:00:00

Joe D'Amico's NBA 6-0 LATE INFO PLAY 8 stars
 

Take San Antonio.

This is my Late Info.

Game 505.

5:00 pm pst.

 

San Antonio lost Game 3 and will not allow Memphis back in this series. Gregg Popovich pulled his starters in the beginning of the 3rd quarter in the loss. The experienced and rested Spurs starters will come back with a vengeance today. Take San Antonio. Thank you.

  2017-04-22 20:00:00

Tony's NBA Playoff Game of the Month - RED HOT
 

#505 - Spurs -3.5  *8 EST

Off a loss I LOVE the Spurs to bounce back here HUGE.  They dropped their guard in Game 3 after 2 dominating performances and there are few teams as good on the road as San Antonio.  I expect them to open up the scoring here and DOMINATE this game.  I have seen this time and time again over the years, a clear cut favorite and higher seed who can name the score play a lazy game.  San Antonio out-stats Memphis in almost every category and surely will be coached up by Coach Pop in this one, no brainer blowout in my opinion as the Spurs reassert themselves and they want to get out of this series ASAP and rest up for round 2, no more going through the motions.  Parker was scoreless in Game 3, expect a big day from him as well. 

Play 2 Units on San Antonio - TOP PLAY 


  2017-04-22 20:00:00

Ryan’s AL SIM Algorithm ‘BEST BET’ Titan
 

7* graded play on the Cleveland (917)  as they take on CWS in MLB action set to start at  7:10 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Cleveland will win this game.

 

Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points

The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game.

Cleveland is a solid10-2 (+8.9 Units) against the money line in road games vs. AL teams allowing 3.9 or less runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. 

Cleveland is 17-5 (+13.2 Units) against the money line in road games vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse since 1997. (Team's Record) 

Cleveland is 93-48 (+32.7 Units) against the money line when the total is 7 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons. 

Cleveland is 20-8 (+13.4 Units) against the money line after 4 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons. 

 

Other Fundamental and Technical Discussion Points

If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Cleveland Indians.

CWS are a very weak hitting team right now and have scored 4 or more runs in just 3 of their 15 games, and batting a horrid 0.213 on the season. Further, they send out a highly suspect Mike Pelfry to the hill to fend off a vastly superior offensive lineup in the Indians. Further, Cleveland starts Carlos Cattasco, who sports a stout 2.33 ERA with a 0.931 WHIP and 19 Ks in three starts spanning 19 1/3 innings of work.

 

  2017-04-22 19:05:00

Marc Lawrence 100% ATS NBA Situational Super Play! - Saturday
 
Play - Portland Trail Blazers (Game 508).
Edges - Trail Blazers: 7-2 SU and 8-1 ATS as home dog in the playoffs, including 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS off a loss (SU loss by one point)… Warriors: 2-6 SUATS as playoff road favorites with a win percentage of .818 or greater, including 0-4 SUATS off a win…. With home teams in Game Three of the playoffs, off a loss of 20 or more points, 15-8 SU and 16-7 ATS since 1990 if they scored 82 or less points in the loss, we recommend a strong 3* play on Portland.  Thank you and good luck as always. 




  2017-04-22 22:30:00

Bow-WOW! ...Grab the POINTS with Saturday’s NBA Playoff 3*** DOG of the DAY!
 

Plays rated 2 thru 5 stars

#507-508

10:30PM ET / 7:30PM PT

Round 1 / Game 3

Golden State Warriors @ Portland Trailblazers

3*** Play on: PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS plus the points

We got our play in at the line of +6.5 points for this late game on the Saturday schedule. the site shifts north for Game Three, with each of the first two games played in the Bay Area. Jumping right out at us is the disparity in shooting in those first two games for Portland 1-2 punch of Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum. They brought their A-GAMES to the first contest, going a combined 28 for 54 against the Warriors, including 7-15 from 3-point land (combined for 75 of Portland’s 109 points!). But they collectively ’s**t the bed’ in Wednesday’s Game Two… going 9 for 26 in shooting (1 for 7 from 3-point land) with a total of only 23 combined points. With the site changing back over to Portland for tonight’s Game Three, chances are much better that they will replicate those Game One numbers… rather than Wednesday’s poor effort. Also jumping out at us is the fact that Portland has been a great HOME ‘Play On’ team. In the last 15+ post-seasons, the TRAILBLAZERS have gone an almost PERFET 8=1 ATS as Playoff home underdogs. Their ONLY ATS loss was by just one point. And in this 2016/2017 season alone, Portland was a great home doggie. Since Christmas Day, the Blazers have gone a PERFECT 6-0 ATS as home underdogs versus ALL opponents! On there flip side, the Warriors have actually gone 1-7 ATS since February as ‘road chalk’ of -6 or more points.

With the series shifting to the lower-seeded team getting a few home games, that usually means we’re gonna see some road teams in the role of the ‘chalk’… and that’s certainly the case tonight with the Warriors -6 to -6.5 as we type this around 11:00am on Saturday. So my first query into our post-season database looks at teams who are favored on the road in games with a HIGH Over / Under line (today’s line is 217 to 218 points)…

4-17 ATS since 1992: All NBA Playoff games in which the ROAD team is favored (Warriors), and the OU line is 210 or more points. On a more recent note, these games have gone a PERFECT a 0-6 ATS since 2010 when the OU line is 216 or more points. I think that’s a strong enough number to warrant a 3* Play.

Next up, most readers already know that in an attempt to find a decent ATS or O/U angle, I always run a query for any tendencies on this particular Day of the Week. This doesn’t go back very farm but it’s been a STRONG ‘play on’ situation as of late...

17-3 ATS last 2+ seasons: All NBA Playoff UNDERDOGS of +8 or less points on a SATURDAY. These teams improve to 90% (9-1 ATS) when the are playing at home (like the BLAZERS).

Golden State scored 121 points in Game One… and 110 points in Wednesday’s Game Two…

In the ‘1.3’ game of the NBA Playoffs (RD 1 / GM 3), non-division favorites who scored 110 > points in EACH of their first two games (Warriors) have gone a PERFECT 0-6 ATS since 1992.

The Warriors are the #1 SEED in the Western Conference…

In ALL NBA Playoff GAME THREES (any round), the #1 seed in the Western Conference (Warriors) have gone 3-1 ATS when playing off a DOUBLE-DIGIT win in their last game. When the OU line in these games is 195 or more points, the numbers in this query improve to 1-8 ATS.

Portland qualifies in a situation that was very profitable last year in the post-season…

NBA Playoff home teams off back-to-back losses of 12 or more points EACH went 8-1 ATS last year (TRAILBLAZERS). Extending this query over the last three years brings us to 90% (9-1 ATS) when the OU line is 194 or more points. 

  2017-04-22 22:35:00

Brad Diamond Sports 5* NBA Playoff Game of the Week 4-0 Red Hot Run
 

5* Portland+ (508) over Golden State

Critical must win situation for the Blazers who accrued strong performances out of Dilliard and McCollumn in game #1 but, the combo faltered in game #2 and the Blazers were routed.  Golden State has the edge ATS in the series but, the Warriors are 5-12-2 ATS with 2 days of rest.  Portland comes 4-0 ATS on Saturday, 5-0 ATS at home against a road unit with a >.600 or more road winning mark.  With the Blazers 8-1 ATS at home, we look for a closer game and at least a cover for the frustrated Blazers.  Good Luck.

  2017-04-22 22:25:00

Bryan Leonard's Diamond Gem
 

911 San Francisco at Colorado

Like the pitching matchup here for the Giants as Moore rates 7% better than Senzatel. The Rockies are also a poor hitting team vs lefties at 10% below league average. The Giants hit righties 5% better than average and we prefer the San Francisco defense.

PLAY SAN FRANCISCO

  2017-04-22 20:10:00

Jim Feist's MLB High Powered Systems Play - Saturday!
 
04/22 08:40 PM EST   MLB   (913) MIAMI MARLINS VS (914) SAN DIEGO PADRES.
Take: (914) SAN DIEGO PADRES
Reason: Miami is a long way from home and Marlins righty Dan Straily (4.61 ERA) was was pulled after 5 1/3 hitless innings in his last outing against the New York Mets as he struggled with his control and issued five walks. The Marlins are 17-36 in their last 53 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. The Padres (8-3 run at home) have won three consecutive games, including a 5-3 victory in the series opener as the light-hitting Austin Hedges launched a three-run homer to lead the charge. And the Marlins are 4-11 in the last 15 meetings in San Diego. Play San Diego.     

  2017-04-22 20:35:00

Cajun Sports Wire NBA 8* Black Label Elite TOTAL Insider
 

NBA:  8* OVER 217   (#507) Golden State Warriors vs. Portland Trailblazers   10:30PM

The Golden State Warriors are in the Pacific Northwest to take on the Portland Trailblazers in Game Three of their best of seven Playoff Series. The Warriors swept the season series with Portland winning the six games of the series which included three visits here with wins by seven, twenty-three and two points. Our BTPR Index projects a game total average of 225.71 points. The BMM projects a total point differential of +9.24 points against a total range of 217.0 to 219.5 points. The BSIM Matrix has the Over with a 74.02 percent advantage against the oddsmakers total in tonight’s contest.  The Pace-Tempo Matrix has the Over with an offensive-defensive differential of 11.46 with a transitional average of 42.82. We have a conversion rate range differential of 3.7 based on each teams actual average for tonight’s game the projected conversion rate range is 46.22 to 48.57. This series has seen thirteen of their last eighteen games finish on the high side of the oddsmakers number the last three seasons. The Over has cashed in six of the last seven trips here for Golden State. The Golden State Warriors coming off a double-digit win in which they allowed fifteen or fewer points than the oddsmakers projected have gone Over in their next game at a rate of 15-4 Over for 78.9 percent winners. We are not going against this set of stats and angles as well as the two teams history so play the Over on Saturday night in the Pacific Northwest.  Over 

  2017-04-22 22:30:00

Mark Franco's MLB Two Team Vegas Outlaw Parlay
 

#910

Diamond Backs

The Arizona Diamondbacks have gone 7-1 at Chase Field to match the franchise's best start (2008) and look to continue the successful stretch when they host the Los Angeles Dodgers on Saturday for the middle contest of their three-game series. Arizona broke loose for nine runs in the eighth inning in the opener to register a 13-5 victory.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Dodgers RH Kenta Maeda (1-1, 7.07 ERA) vs. Diamondbacks LH Robbie Ray (1-0, 1.96)

Maeda struggled against Arizona on April 15, when he gave up four runs and four hits over four innings in a no-decision. The 29-year-old hasn't lasted more than five frames in any of his three outings but has registered 14 strikeouts against four walks in 14 innings. Maeda is 3-1 with a 3.62 ERA in seven career starts against the Diamondbacks but has struggled against Lamb (8-for-17, one homer, three doubles).

Ray recorded a season-best 10 strikeouts against the Dodgers on Monday, when he allowed two runs - one earned - and three hits over six innings in a no-decision. The 25-year-old has struck out 24 batters in just 18 1/3 frames while limiting opponents to a .161 average - second-lowest in the National League. Ray is 3-3 with a 2.80 ERA in nine career starts against the Dodgers while shutting down Seager (3-for-18, eight strikeouts) and Adrian Gonzalez (0-for-11).

Dodgers are 3-12 in their last 15 games vs. a left-handed starter. Diamondbacks are 5-0 in Rays last 5 starts vs. National League West.

#912

Rockies

The San Francisco Giants will need the rest of their starting rotation to exceed expectations while ace Madison Bumgarner recovers from injuries sustained in a dirt bike accident. Matt Moore will get a chance to elevate his game Friday as he takes the mound for the Giants against the host Colorado Rockies.

San Francisco looks to avoid a third straight loss after dropping a 6-5 decision in the series opener against Colorado, which staged a six-run rally in the fourth inning and made it stand. Trevor Story hit his first career grand slam in the uprising while Charlie Blackmon added a two-run, inside-the-park homer to extend his hitting streak to six games.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Giants LH Matt Moore (1-2, 4.26 ERA) vs. Rockies RH Antonio Senzatela (2-0, 2.37)

Moore will have revenge on his mind after being battered by Colorado at home last Saturday. The 27-year-old Floridian surrendered five runs on 10 hits and three walks over 5 2/3 frames en route to a loss. Moore owns a 1-2 record and 6.86 ERA in four career starts versus the Rockies.

Senzatela looks to remain unbeaten in the major leagues as he makes his fourth career start. The 22-year-old Venezuelan won his only turn at home, defeating San Diego on April 11 after allowing two runs over seven innings. Senzatela is coming off a victory at San Francisco on Sunday, when he gave up three runs and seven hits in seven frames.

Giants are 1-6 in their last 7 road games vs. a right-handed starter. Rockies are 6-0 in their last 6 home games vs. a left-handed starter. Home team is 7-0 in Drakes last 7 games behind home plate vs. Colorado.

  2017-04-22 20:05:00

Mark Franco's NBA Vegas Insider Steam Play ~ 7-2 in Postseason
 

#507

Warriors – 6

The Golden State Warriors made the decision to sit Kevin Durant with a minor calf injury in Game 2 and turned out to have no problem winning a playoff game without one of their All-Stars in an easy win. The Warriors will try to earn a commanding 3-0 lead in the best-of-seven series when they visit the Portland Trail Blazers on Saturday.

Golden State got contributions up and down the roster in Game 2 and breezed to a 110-81 win, putting on a defensive clinic in the second half and holding the Trail Blazers to 12 points in the third quarter as it pulled away.

The Trail Blazers, who blamed themselves for missing shots and mostly brushed off the sub-par showing, understand how important Saturday's Game 3 became when they fell on Wednesday. I just don’t think they are good enough to hang with the Warriors.

Durant said he would have been able to go in Game 2 but the team decided to take the cautious approach and is going to give it a go tonight.

Portland's star backcourt of Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum combined for 75 points in Game 1 but was held to 23 on 9-of-34 shooting in Game 2.

Warriors are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games and are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games overall. Trail Blazers are 7-18-2 ATS in their last 27 Conference Quarterfinals games. Warriors are 11-5 ATS in the last 16 meetings in Portland.

 

  2017-04-22 22:30:00

Joe D'Amico's NBA 1st RD GAME OF THE YEAR 9 stars
  Take Golden State.
This is my 1st Rd GOY.
Game 507.
7:35 pm pst.

Golden State has taken 8 in a row SU over Portland. The Warriors have easily beaten the Blazers in Games 1 and 2 of this series by 12 and 29 points. They would love to finish this series early and get some rest and prepare for the next round. The Warriors are 11-5 ATS the L16 games played at the Blazers. Take Golden State. Thank you.
  2017-04-22 22:35:00

Rickenbach 10* NHL *100% PERFECT* Primetime Punisher Saturday! 5 IN A ROW?
  Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NHL Saturday 10* Top Play Montreal Canadiens Money Line (-) @ New York Rangers @ 8:05 ET - The Rangers tried but were unsuccessful in asking the league to move this game to Montreal! All kidding aside, the Rangers are simply a better team on the road than at home. It doesn't make a lot of sense and yet it is a fact. That said, the fact you can get Montreal at a fair price here (instead of laying a big price at home) is a true value in this spot as the Habs look to avoid elimination. Clearly, the Canadiens were outplayed as Game 5 went on and they deserved to lose that one in OT which they did. However, that doesn't mean that Montreal is finished and it doesn't mean that Montreal can't make adjustments and force a Game 7 back to at the Bell Centre. Note that the Canadiens have won 11 of 17 games this season when playing with home loss revenge. Also, prior to New York's home win in Game 4 of this series, the Rangers had lost 9 of their last 11 home games! New York still has not scored a power play goal in this series and the Canadiens have 3 power play markers in the last 3 games. The Rangers have only outshot the Habs once in the first five games of this series. In the Canadiens two wins they outshot NYR by a combined 28 shots. The Habs are well aware of this and will be ultra aggressive tonight and not look like the same team that got out-skated as that game went on Thursday night. I look for a huge bounce back effort on the road in this one Saturday night. 10* MONTREAL
  2017-04-22 20:05:00

Rickenbach 10* MLB *Total Crusher* Saturday TOP PLAY! 9-3, 75% Run!
  Total Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in San Diego Padres vs Miami Marlins @ 8:40 ET - The Padres got a big inning yesterday to get their bats going in a 5-3 win over the Marlins. Even though San Diego hasn't hit well overall this season, the Padres have now scored at least 4 runs in 3 of their last 5 games and I expect them to enjoy success against Dan Strailly. The right-hander was a fantastic 8-1 at home last season but went 6-7 with a 4.70 ERA on the road last year. He's having some issues with command of his pitches (walked 5 in 5 innings in his most recent start) and, true to last season's performance, Strailly struggled in his only road start so far this season. As for the Padres starter in this one, Jered Weaver gets the call. Though his overall numbers are decent early this season, the veteran righty has allowed 5 homers in his 3 starts. Also, behind him is a Padres bullpen that has a 5.61 ERA (one of the worst in majors) so far this season. Weaver got hit at a .297 clip last season and he's likely in trouble tonight as he faces a tough Marlins lineup. Miami is hitting .264 in road games this season and that's good for 3rd in the majors out of all 30 teams. Before being held to 3 runs yesterday, the Marlins had scored 4 runs or more in 7 of their last 9 games. Keep in mind a 4-4 game guarantees of no worse than a 5-4 final and that get this over the total. The over is 5-1 this season in Padres games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs. The over is 7-3 in Miami's night games so far this season. Look for both lineups to do plenty of damage in this one given the pitching match-up. 10* OVER the total in San Diego
  2017-04-22 20:40:00

Ryan’s NHL SIM Algorithm ‘BEST BET’ Titan
 

7* graded play on Montreal (51) as they take on NY Rangers Game 6 of their best-of-seven playoff series set to start at 8:05 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Montreal will win this game and send the series back to Montreal for the deciding Game 7.

 

Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points

The following system has gone 27-6 hitting 82% winners and has made 20.2 units/unit wagered since 1996. Play on road teams when the money line is -100 to -150 (MONTREAL) revenging 2 straight close losses vs opponent by 1 goal or less, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team in the 2nd half of the season. 

 

The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game.

Rangers are just 11-17 against the money line (-13.7 Units) in home games against poor defensive teams - opponents average 29.5+ shots on goal this season. 

Rangers are 4-10 against the money line (-9.8 Units) in home games against poor defensive teams - opponents average 29.5+ shots on goal in the 2nd half of the year this season. 

Rangers are 5-13 against the money line (-13.3 Units) in home games against poor defensive teams allowing 29 or more shots on goal, convert 17% or more of their pp opportunities this season. 

 

 

Other Fundamental and Technical Discussion Points

If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board Montreal.

 

  2017-04-22 20:05:00