Marc Lawrence 100% Perfect Never Lost MLB Top Key Play! - Monday
  Play - St. Louis Cardinals w/Leake vs Hill (Game 954).
Edges - Cardinals: 10-4 home in this series, and Leake 1.91 ERA and 0.93 WHIP this season… Dodgers: 1-6 away Game One of series this season; and Hill 0-2 career team starts in this park.  With Leake in great KW form with 15 Ks and 3 BBs his last three starts, we recommend a 3* play in the St. Louis Cardinals.  Thank you and good luck as always. 
  2017-05-29 14:15:00

Nelly's Monday Daytime MLB Total Domination - May 29
 

05/29/17 Nelly's 8* #973/974 'UNDER' Houston Astros (Peacock) at Minnesota Twins (Santana) 2:10 PM ET

The Twins suffered a demoralizing loss on Sunday afternoon in a marathon 15-inning affair as Minnesota blew a save opportunity in the ninth inning and failed in several opportunities in extra-innings. Houston has one of the best offenses in baseball but over the past two weeks the numbers have slid downward despite the wins continuing to come in and Minnesota's ace Ervin Santana should be counted on for a quality outing to protect an exhausted bullpen. Santana's league-leading 1.80 ERA may not be sustainable with an outrageously low .136 BABIP but Santana's fine season isn't likely to come unhinged in an instant either with one or fewer runs allowed in eight of his 10 starts this season. Houston owns a 10-game lead in the AL West after sweeping Baltimore at home and facing travel for an afternoon start in Minneapolis for Memorial Day will be a challenge. Houston's pitching staff has allowed just 17 runs over the past seven games and Brad Peacock is a strong candidate to keep up his amazing numbers given the wear on the Twins lineup from yesterday. Peacock made his first start last week and allowed just one hit while getting 13 outs and his season ERA is down to 0.87 with an absurd 13.1 K/9 albeit in only 20 innings. The 29-year old journeyman is a candidate to be a great success story this season and he'll be an unfamiliar matchup for much of the Minnesota lineup. Despite the success of these offenses the totals have leaned 'under' in Minnesota games while Houston games are nearly even. Only two Santana starts have featured more than nine runs this season and some rain in the forecast could drop the humidity and lead to lower scoring conditions for a tired Twins team on Monday.

Nelly's rates our Playbook Picks 1-10 stars. It is a long season so please have a money management plan and be conservative and conscientious with your wagers. Thanks for playing with Nelly's Sportsline and best of luck. 

  2017-05-29 14:10:00

Bryan Leonard's Diamond Gem
 

969 Tampa Bay at Texas

While Texas owns the better bullpen we prefer Ramirez over Perez. Martin Perez grades out as 12% below league average in our numbers. TB has a 3% defensive edge, while Texas has slim 5, 6 and 3% offensive advantages. Our numbers say the wrong team is favored here and we really like the way this Rays team is playing.

PLAY TAMPA BAY

  2017-05-29 20:05:00

Jim Feist's MLB 2-Team Power Pack - Monday
 
05/29 07:10 PM EST  MLB   (951) PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES VS (952) MIAMI MARLINS.
Take: over the total.
Reason: The Philadelphia Phillies are 11-2-1 over the total on the road against a right-handed starter. Miami is on an 8-22 run and the Marlins are stuck with Edinson Volquez (0-7, 4.82 ERA). Miami is on a 6-2-1 run over the total, as well as 22-9 over against a team with a winning percentage below .400. Play Philadelphia/Miami Over the total.     

05/29 07:05 PM  EST  MLB   (977) CINCINNATI REDS VS (978) TORONTO BLUE JAYS.
Take: (978) TORONTO BLUE JAYS
Reason: Cincinnati has a losing road record and a bad pitching staff. Reds starter Lisalverto Bonilla (0-2, 6.17 ERA) has been awful and is allowing left-handed hitters to bat .313 against him. The Reds are 15-41 in their last 56 interleague road games. Toronto is on a 5-1 run and has Marcus Stroman (5-2, 3.30 ERA) going. The Blue Jays are 58-27 in their last 85 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Play Toronto on the Run-Line.     
  2017-05-29 19:00:00

Jim Feist's NL East Game of the Month - Monday!
 
5/29 07:10 PM EST   MLB   (951) PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES VS (952) MIAMI MARLINS.
Take: NL East Game of the Month, (951) PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES
Reason:  The Philadelphia Phillies' bullpen surrendered their first run in 22 2/3 frames Sunday, stopping the club's longest such streak since 2004 (28 innings). Phillies RH Jeremy Hellickson (5-2, 4.28 ERA) is throwing well and the team is 6-0 when he faces the NL East. Miami is on an 8-22 run and the Marlins are stuck with Edinson Volquez (0-7, 4.82 ERA). And the Phillies are 4-1 in the last 5 meetings. Play Philadelphia.     
  2017-05-29 19:00:00

Jim Feist's MLB Late Bailout Blowout - Monday!
 
05/29 09:05 PM  EST  MLB   (979) ATLANTA BRAVES VS (980) LOS ANGELES ANGELS.
Take: (979) ATLANTA BRAVES
Reason: LA Angels star Mike Trout suffered a sprained thumb stealing second base in Sunday's 9-2 loss at Miami as the Angels finished a 4-6 road trip. Atlanta right-hander Julio Teheran has been excellent on the road (2-0, 0.71 ERA) and the Braves are 23-9 in their last 32 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game. Angels righty Ricky Nolasco (2-4, 4.37) is 6-10 with a 5.11 ERA in 24 games (23 starts) against Atlanta. And the Braves are 5-1 in their last 6 road games vs. a right-handed starter. Play Atlanta.     
  2017-05-29 21:00:00

CajunSports MLB 8* NL 504 Diamond Club Memorial Day Special $10
 

MLB:   8* (#953) Los Angeles Dodgers -105 vs. St. Louis Cardinals    2:15PM

The Los Angeles Dodgers are coming off a weekend sweep of the Champion Second City Cubs taking all three games in their weekend set. They open a seven-game road trip with four games in St. Louis with the first pitch set for Monday afternoon. They hosted the Cardinals in a series prior to their series against the Cubs taking two of three from them in the City of Angels. We have a pitching rematch with Rich Hill going for the Dodgers and Mike Leake going for the Cardinals. Leake and the Red Birds got the lone victory for St. Louis in LA winning 6 to 1 over Rich Hill and the Dodgers. Rich Hill is 1-2 on the season with an ERA of 4.76. Hill is 0-0 on the road this season with an ERA of 1.80. Hill has made two career starts at Busch Stadium posting a record of 0-0 with an ERA of 2.35. The Cardinals Mike Leake has a record of 5-2 on the season with an ERA of 1.91. That record includes a home record of 1-2 with an ERA of 1.89. His numbers are a bit misleading on the surface if we look deeper we see the team record behind Leake at home is only 1-4 on the season. Leake has an ERA of 1.89 when he starts at home but his teammates have failed to close the deal in four of his five starts. Overall the Cardinals are only 3-8 their last eleven trips to the diamond played anywhere. Leake has a career record of 5-5 and an ERA of 3.78 versus the LA Dodgers. Cardinals’ starter Mike Leake has a career mark of 5-11 with an ERA of 3.58 in twenty-four starts at Busch Stadium. We mentioned an underlying issue with the Cardinals when Leake takes the bump they are not posting wins when it appears they should with Leake setting the table with a solid performance on the hill. One issue that is apparent they are a below average offensive team barely ranked in the Top 20 at nineteenth in the league in scoring with an average of 4.33 runs per game. They are also out of the Top 10 in hitting ranked eleventh with a team batting average of only .255. Our BbTPR Index projects a run advantage of 1.29 runs in favor of the Dodgers. The SPMatrix has Rich Hill with an average of 6.29 compared to Mike Leake who has an average of 6.12. Our next set of metrics gives us an overall Pitchers Power Rating based on the situation. In this matrix Rich Hill has an average for this game of 117 and Mike Leake comes in with an average of 103 compared to the league average of 100. In this contest our Momentum Matrix has the Dodgers trending and holding in positive territory with an average of .783 while the Cardinals are trending and holding in negative territory with an average of .5.22. We also have a same-season pitching rematch in this contest and our SPMatrix along with our Baseball Math Model have Rich Hill with a solid advantage over Mike Leake even though Leake won the first meeting this season. The combination average for this particular situation has Hill with an average of 17.88 while Leake comes into this situation with an average of 13.46. This combination module has a range of 10.0 to 20.0 with 20.0 the best possible average. All of our primary and secondary matrixes point to only one outcome and that is another Dodgers victory.
  2017-05-29 14:15:00

Red Dog Sports ***10*** NHL Total (Stanley Cup)
  Nashville at Pittsburgh
8pm Monday

10* under 5.5

These two have played overs in their meetings this year but Pittsburgh has seen the under profit in 10 of their last 11 Stanley Cup games. They do have solid offense in Malkin and Sidney Crosby but Nashville is a very good defensive team and both have solid goalies. I hope to see a 3-2 game that stays under.
  2017-05-29 20:05:00

Playbook.com Database MLB ESPN Best Bet Play - Monday
  Play - Tigers-Royals OVER w/Norris vs Hammel (Game 971).
Edges - Tigers: Norris 5.11 ERA and 1.73 WHIP last seven starts… Royals: Hammel 1-8 with 5.98 ERA and 1.69 WHIP this season.
  2017-05-29 19:00:00

Fargo's MLB Monday Underdog Double Play (+$15,050 MLB Run)
  Philadelphia hits the road after a disappointing homestand where it went just 2-5 and the recent struggles go further back which is playing a part in this number. However, when facing a team with similar struggles, taking advantage of this overpriced number is the way to go. While the Phillies have struggled over the last month, the Marlins have not fared much better and despite a series win over the Angels this past weekend, they are 8-22 over their last 30 games and going back further, they are 1-10 in their last 11 games following a win. Miami has just eight home wins on the season, fewest in baseball, and is a hefty favorite behind a pitcher than has yet to win on the season. Edinson Volquez has had a rough start to the season as he has posted a 4.82 ERA and 1.67 WHIP in nine starts where he has gone 0-7. His numbers are not any better at home and while he has put up the occasional good start, his offense behind him is as just much to blame as he has gotten only 2.1 rpg of support including 1.7 rpg in three home starts. Jeremy Hellickson is coming off his worst start of the season against Colorado but he has been solid for the most part, allowing three runs or less in eight of ten starts while posting a 2.56 ERA in those eight games. Overall, he has a 1.15 WHIP on the season which shows how good he has been. 10* (951) Philadelphia Phillies

Seattle picked up a much needed win in Boston on Sunday as the Mariners continue their roadtrip on Monday afternoon. They had scored nine runs in eight games after enduring back-to-back shutouts at Boston but rebounded Sunday to beat the Red Sox 5-0 while their offense halted a scoreless streak that lasted 23 innings. Colorado took two of three against St. Louis to improve to 33-19 which is the best record in the National League. The Rockies offense continues to lead the way but surprisingly, the pitching has been solid by allowing three runs or less in six of their last seven games. That strong pitching could be in question today however as Tyler Chatwood takes the hill for Colorado. He is coming off one of his best starts of the season against the Phillies but that came on the road where he has a 3.08 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in five starts. Coors Field has not been as nice to him as he has posted a 6.18 ERA and 1.66 WHIP in five outings with only one being a quality performance. His career ERA is nearly two runs higher here than it is on the road. Sam Gaviglio gets the ball for Seattle and he looks to turn in another solid performance after putting up a 0.82 ERA in his first two starts. This comes after a 3.31 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in five starts in AAA so he has been spot on this season. 10* (975) Seattle Mariners
  2017-05-29 15:10:00

Richard Witt’s Sharp 5* MLB Over/Under Move for Memorial Day!
 

#967   5*    NY Yankees (Montgomery) / Baltimore Orioles (Bundy) OVER 9 (-120)   1:05 PM EDT

 

Orioles are desperate for a measure of redemption off a terrible week from all perspectives, but not at all convinced Dylan Bundy will act as the redeemer in this afternooner, given his deteriorating form after an alert start.   The Orioles managed to have their fun with Jordan Montgomery in his earlier appearance for the Yankees against this divisional opponent, and Montgomery could be just the tonic to revive slumbering Oriole bats.   Eagerly anticipating lively bats, on both sides.  Take #967, 5*, Yankees (Montgomery) / Orioles (Bundy) OVER 9 (-120), to start things off the right way, today.  Thanks, and continued good luck!

 

 

  2017-05-29 13:05:00

#1 RANKED MLB ROB V: 5* 100% TOTALS SYSTEM-AFTERNOON
  The MLB Totals Play is on the Over in the Chicago at SD Game. Rotation numbers 961/962 at 4:40 eastern. This game has a powerful database system pointing to the over. Play over for road favorites at -140 or higher that are off a road dog loss by 2+ runs if they scored 4 or less on 5+ hits vs an opponent like SD that comes home off a road dog win scoring 5+ runs. This system is 100% since 2004. Hendricks has gone over his last 2 vs the Pads and Cosart was ripped allowing 7 runs in 1+ inning in his only start vs the Cubs. Chicago is 4-0 over as a road favorite of 175 or more and 3 of 4 on Mondays. SD is 26 of 37 over as a home dog from +125 to 175. Look for this game to go over the total
  2017-05-29 16:00:00

ROB VINCILETTI: 30-1 RARE 6* MLB HIGHEST RATED Power Play
 
The MLB late Banger system is on the LA. Angels. Game 980 at 9:05 Eastern.. This game fits a huge league wide system that plays on Home favorites with a total that is 8 or less and come home off a road loss by 5+ runs and scored 2 or less runs vs an opponent off a dog loss like the Braves. These home teams are 16-1 and 100% if they were favorite sin that road loss. Teheran and Nolasco have similar stat lines but the Angles are 14-0 at home off a road favored loss by 2 or more runs and have won 5 straight at home vs N.L Teams. Atlanta has dropped 6 of 9 as a road dog in this range and the Angles have won 9 of 12 as a favorite in this range
  2017-05-29 21:05:00

Doug Upstone's Memorial Day Masher (45-9 MLB System)
   #970 Rangers -140 ML

Not that long ago today Texas was a -120 and they have blown up. I think the slump is over, they are back home where they are 16-8 and the Rangers are TEXAS is 17-3 as a favorite of -110 or higher this season. Lastly,  favorites with a money line of -110 or higher with a mediocre bullpen whose WHIP is 1.45 to 1.55 on the season, after two straight games where the bullpen gave up no earned runs are 45-9 since 2013.

  2017-05-29 20:05:00

Rickenbach MLB *EARLIEST CASH* Monday! (+$56,500 YTD!) 1 PM ET!
  Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Monday 8* OVER the total in Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees @ 1:05 ET - These teams have gone over the total in all 6 of their meetings this season. Also, both teams had games that flew over the total yesterday. This snapped a trend of lower scoring games for each club and I expect some carry over from yesterday's games right into today and a 7th straight over in their head to head match-ups. The Orioles got pummeled at Houston but will be back home where they have won 15 of their last 21 against the Yankees. The Yanks are back on the road after taking 2 of 3 at home against Oakland but the Yankees are averaging 5 runs per game away from home this season. Also, New York has averaged 7.6 runs per game in their 6 games against the Orioles this season. Dylan Bundy gets the start for the Orioles and he was fortunate to escape some jams in his last start and did allow 6 earned runs in 6 innings in his prior start. Also, the Yankees are familiar with him from facing him twice late last season. The Orioles will be facing Jordan Montgomery for the 2nd time already this season and the southpaw is off of a solid start but allowed 9 earned runs in 11 innings in his 2 prior starts. The O's are 8-5 to the over in day games this season and 60-45 to the over the last 3 seasons combined in afternoon games. The Yankees are 11-5 to the over in day games this season and 14-8 to the over in their games against teams with a winning record this season. 8* OVER the total in Baltimore
  2017-05-29 13:05:00

Rickenbach 10* MLB *Daytime Dominator* Monday TOP! Off 2-0 SWEEP!
  Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs Seattle Mariners @ 3:10 ET - The Rockies have been heating up at the plate. With yesterday's 8-4 win over the Cardinals, Colorado has now scored an average of 6.8 runs per game during their current 7-3 hot streak their last 10 games. Monday the Rockies take on the Mariners and Seattle got back on track with a 5-0 win at Boston yesterday. The M's have been struggling at the plate recently but a big win like that as well as now a day game at hitter-friendly Coors Field is the kind of sequence that can rejuvenate a dangerous lineup. The Mariners do indeed have solid hitters up and down their lineup and they should have no problems with the offerings of Tyler Chatwood. The Rockies right-hander has a 6.18 ERA at home this season. He also had a 6.12 ERA at home last season. It's one of the drawbacks of being a Rockies pitcher. Chatwood has seen first hand how this home park can be so tough on a pitcher and he has a huge road/home dichotomy as he has been tremendous away from home but struggled mightily at Coors Field. I don't expect the Mariners Sam Gaviglio to find Coors Field to his liking either. He's making just the 3rd start of his MLB career and in the rookie's first two starts he has a total of just 3 strikeouts. Remember, contact at Coors Field is not a good thing so if he can't mow hitters down here it's likely to be a long afternoon for him. The over is on a 29-17 run in Mariners inter-league games the past 3 seasons and I look for a slugfest in this one. 10* OVER the total in Colorado
  2017-05-29 15:10:00

Rickenbach 10* MLB *Contrarian Crusher* Monday BLOWOUT! 88% RUN!
  Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Monday 10* Top Play Detroit Tigers Money Line (+) @ Kansas City Royals @ 7:15 ET - I successfully used Daniel Norris and the Tigers when they got a big upset road win at Houston in his most recent start and I certainly like him even more in this spot as he's matched up with a Kansas City team that, unlike the Astros, has struggled this season. Also, this appears to be a pitching match-up with Jason Hammel on the mound for the Royals. Hammel is 1-6 with a 5.98 ERA this season and it is not fluke as he has been getting hit at a .313 clip and not keeping the ball down in the zone (way too many outs through the air). Though Detroit's Norris doesn't have ultra impressive overall numbers on the year he does have a solid 3.62 ERA in his 5 road starts this season. Also, he's allowed 2 earned runs or less in 3 of his 5 start this month! Norris also has a 3.47 ERA in his starts against the Royals in his career. Conversely, the Royals Hammel has an 8.53 ERA in his career starts against the Tigers and they've hammered him for 3 homers in EACH of his last two starts versus Detroit. The Royals are an ugly 6-15 in divisional games this season and have gone just 4-9 in their 13 games against teams with a losing record this season. I am looking for the Tigers to improve to 3-0 in Norris' divisional starts this season. I know the Tigers don't have a great record but the Royals have struggled this season too and we've got a huge pitching edge here and the Tigers are averaging 4.7 runs per game against righty starters while the Royals are averaging just 3.1 runs per game against lefty starters. 10* DETROIT
  2017-05-29 19:15:00

Rickenbach 10* NHL *TOTAL OF THE YEAR* Monday! 9-1, 90% Games of the Year!
  Total of the Year - Rickenbach NHL Monday 10* Top Play OVER 5.5 goals +125 in Pittsburgh Penguins vs Nashville Predators @ 8 ET - How will these teams react after the layoff that preceded the Stanley Cup Finals getting underway? The Predators have played 9 games this season after a layoff of 3 days or more. The results? Only 2 unders in those 9 games! As for the Penguins, they've played 8 games this season after a layoff of 3 days or more. Pittsburgh has gone 7-1 in those 8 games! Not only are there trends to support this play though. The fact is that the old adage of 'speed kills' applies to both of these teams. They are each so dangerous with their skilled forwards and I expect this to be a highly entertaining series. Of course the Preds loss of Ryan Johansen was a big one but just look at how they've responded! The Predators wrapped up the Western Conference Finals by scoring 6 goals in their series clinching victory over Anaheim. The Predators are 19-10 to the over this season (and 46-26 to the over the past 3 seasons) when they are off of a game where they scored 4 goals or more. Each of the last 3 games between these teams has gone over the total and if the odds makers were expecting a solid under here, they would have posted a total of 5 goals. Why the 5.5 on this one? It's because the odds makers expect the same thing I do. After the layoff, neither team will be completely crisp in their own end, neither goalie will be as razor sharp as they might usually be, and with all the speed on the ice there will be some excellent scoring chances for both clubs in this one. These teams have combined for an average of nearly 70 shots on goal per game in their last 3 meetings. Look for a wild opener to the Stanley Cup Finals and I am more than happy to take advantage of the big plus money being offered on the over in this one. 10* OVER 5.5 goals +125 in Pittsburgh
  2017-05-29 20:00:00

Ryan’s AL ‘Best Bet Titan’; 6-0 situation
 

7* graded play on Boston (965) as they take on the CWS in MLB action set to start at 2:10 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Boston will win this game.

Fundamental Matchups and Data Metrics

Price is making his first start since having modest elbow stiffness. However, he did leave to go to the NFL combine to seek out the opinions of two elite orthopedic surgeons. He has had two rehab assignments that have not been good with an opposing scout stating he had poor command of all pitches and worked far too slowly.

 

Here is what we expect from Price. In 2013, when Price was the reigning AL Cy Young Award winner, he missed six weeks in May and June with a left triceps strain, the only other time he was on the disabled list. He made only two minor league rehab starts then, too, reaching 70 pitches over five scoreless innings in his final tuneup. Upon returning to the Rays in early July, he went on an eight-start run in which he posted a 1.40 ERA with 44 strikeouts and only two walks in 64⅓ innings.

Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points

The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game.

  1. Price’s team record is 34-12 (+17.1 Units) against the money line in road games vs. teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game.

Boston had a 6-game winning streak snapped losing to Seattle 5-0. Teams, who have won 6 of their last 7 games and were shutout in the previous game and now find themselves installed as a -170 favorite have gone 6-0 SU since 2004.

 

  2017-05-29 14:10:00