Casual Players Better Off Dealing With The NFL
Richard Witt
Posted: 2009-11-27
This is why I urge most casual players working real jobs while dabbling
in this thing of ours to concentrate on the NFL. An incredible amount of
information is freely available at little to no cost. Real fans with any
pointspread experience gain a grasp of basic successful precepts in short order, or they don't last long.
The NFL market is beyond enormous, especially on sides, and the prevailing major group powers have been waiting until game day to make their most significant moves, giving the talented amateur plenty of time to do his
research while deciding when to make his move in order to secure optimum
value on his/her speculations.
Even in the "short" (HA!) 16-game NFL regular season, teams pace
themselves. In a collision sport with enormous, fast players competing
within a relatively-small area, there's no way you can go full-bore for
three hours on every non-bye Sunday. Once the weekend warrior understands this, and becomes comfortable with the certainty that the teams boasting the superior physical talent are hardly locks to cover in individual, specific situations, a huge step towards long-term success has been made.
Fundamentals and statistics are important, but most of the largest players in the game rely on technical analysis to isolate the optimum situations each Sunday. This takes experience, energy, and a solid work ethic, but with
only 16 games (at most) each weekend, it's quite doable.
Discipline is required. It's a bad idea to chase anything more extensive than a half-point side move in the NFL. ;You can be marginally more flexible on over/unders, especially under certain weather conditions, but on the whole, it's a good standard to respect and observe.
The enormous NFL market offers weekly opportunities, because while the
marketmakers might know what number a specific game should be assigned,
they also know that the unsophisticated public will generate overwhelming one-way action on that number, because the marketmakers know more (usually involving one more more technical aspects) than the public. It's a fine balancing act, which benefits the NFL-specializing wise guys, and as long as the season's too long and teams bring varying degrees of effectiveness and intensity to the table on a week-to-week basis, wise guys with mature money-management skills will prosper.
Even if you're a small potato, you can bring knowledge and maturity
to bear against the weekly NFL propositions. All you need is a greater
understanding of the game than the "this team is more talented than
this other team, so this team will cover" crowd. And the folks here are looking
to help you do that.