Week 17 -- NFL Bizarro-World
Richard Witt
Posted: 2009-12-31
The BIlls, -8 1/2 over the Colts . . . the Texans, -8 over the Patriots,
the Jets -10 over the Bengals, the Broncos -13 over the Chiefs, and the Ravens
-11 ON THE ROAD against the Raiders . .. extreme sports, indeed.
Given the accompanying playoff-chasing pressures involved, the Denver
and Baltimore lines actually aren't too distended.
Houston and the Jets, both in must-win situations (with the Texans needing
considerable help, as well), are carrying lines reflecting the fact that there isn't
that much practical difference between the tasks facing the AFC's #3 and #4
seeds, and Gary Kubiak and Marvin Lewis are accordingly likely to approaching things relatively casually.
Bills -8 1/2 over Indy? That's not a misprint, but an acknowledgment that
if the Colts were willing to do what they did against the Jets last Sunday,
their approach to a Buffalo finale in the frozen North will be beyond casual.
The one game on which you might expect crisp, clear intent displayed
on both sides should be the Eagle/Dallas late-afternoon blood match for the
NFC East title. Both sides will make the playoffs, but their postseason
perspectives will be markedly different, depending on who emerges victorious
in the gloaming.
This is typically not a week to get careless and silly. There are
opportunities here, especially on the dog side, but you want to be fully
informed about specific ramifications before charging full-tilt into the fray.
I'd be very careful of most of the inflated favorites, and some of the mini-crusades
being acted out in a few of the supporting-card matchups are likely worthy of your
attention. For instance, there are very good cases to be made for both
favored Atlanta and underdog Tampa Bay on Sunday, and how you may choose
to act with regards to that crossfire will depend on which storyline you deem most compelling. Happy hunting, y'all.