Don't Let College Hoop Success Get You All Giddy . . .
Richard Witt
Posted: 2010-02-24
We're headed towards the conclusion of the primary conference seasons.
Numbers are tighter than they were, or course. But the discerning can continue
to unearth situations with inherent meaningful value. Since the market MUST
offer numbers which will NOT generate runaway one-way action on individual games
(in order to minimize middle risk -- a much-greater potential danger in baskets
than foots, thanks to the scoring systems involved), there will be matchups which
offer tangible value on sides the unsophisticated public will be reluctant to back.
While college baskets is a far more wiseguy-dominated marketplace than is
football, reputation and rankings will generate meaningful measure of public
interested on well-known sides which don't justify support under current conditions.
This year's North Carolina edition has yielded a bonanza to those who've recognized
that while the powder-blues might appear athletic, the 2009-10 crop doesn't play
the mental game very well, and there's apparently little Roy Williams can do about it.
Don't chase numbers. If you miss an opener and it's slipped a half-point the wrong way, and the number isn't a critical one, I wouldn't cower, but there are too many good situations which will come down the pike to justify belated pursuit of any move of a point or more.
The very best market situations come into play when your read of a matchup/scenario inspires confidence, the opening quotes appears low to you, and you like the dog. If the number's played up by a half-point or a point, many things can happen, the majority of them good. Perhaps the public is wrongheadedly taking the bit in its teeth, or possibly someone or some group is doing some manipulating in order to obtain a better number to hammer with resounding over-the-top buyback action.
One more note, with bad weather headed towards the East as I type this:
be very careful of road teams facing horrid postgame travel scenarios caused
by weather. It's tough for many college kids to put this kind of grief out of their
minds, especially if you're dealing with second-shelf programs without a good
deal to play for.
Keep an eye on your proven personal key factors, act judiciously, and prosper.

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