SAINTS / VIKINGS Thursday night 3*** OVER / UNDER Winner from King Creole: Plays rated 2 thru 5 stars 8:30pm ET / Minnesota Vikings @ New Orleans Saints 3*** Play on: UNDER the TOTAL When the opening lines in this game came out (2.5 months ago!), this one started at 51 points. As the Brett Favre speculation continued, the number started creeping in a downward direction. It settled at its current line of 48.5 to 49 points. There is a good chance however that this OU line will start to creep back up again on gameday. I think that is a good sign... since gameday betting volume that drives a line up usually comes from the squares. I would play half of my budget for this game ASAP.... but hold off on playing the other half after we monitor which way the line will move on Thursday. If it starts to go up, then play the other half when the OU line 'tops out'. I wrote about this aspect of the game in the 2010 Playbook Yearbook. If you are planning on playing Game One 'OVERS' in the NFL, it would be prudent to stay away from the games with the higher OU lines. NEVER go “Over” the total in the first game of the year when you see an extremely high OU line. According to our NFL database, WEEK ONE games with an OU line of 45 > points have gone 7-26 O/U since the 2001 season. And in the last 5 years, this System has gone 2-14 O/U, Most of the time, these games aren’t even close. Average OU margin is -11.8.0 points, meaning the average game goes UNDER by more than 10 points! The next aspect of our database querying involves the site of this game. This comes from the "DOMER Homer" set that I created. It pertains to the teams in the NFL that play their home games in an indoor environment. 1-9 O/U since 2004: All WEEK ONE home favorites of < 14 points playing in a DOME (New Orl). As mentioned in our promo, this is a rematch of the NFC Title Game from last year. New Orleans went 13-3 SU in 2009... while Minnesota went 12-4 SU. 1-8 O/U since 2004: All WEEK ONE games in which BOTH teams won 11+ games last season (Saints / Vikings). New Orleans has a big MONDAY night game up next week as they head out to the Bay Area to take on the San Francisco 49ers. 0-6 O/U last 3 years: All WEEK ONE teams who have a Monday night game in Week Two (Saints). The Vikings start off the 2010 season with a pair of non-division games..... against the Saints in Week One.... and against the Dolphins in Week Two. 1-13 O/U since 2005: All WEEK ONE road teams who start off the season with back-to-back non-division games (Vikings). We close the System querying with a look at the pointspread in this game. With New Orleans favored at -5.5 points, that is pretty much a 'dead' number. Of course, all sharp players know that the most important KEY numbers in football are 3, 4, 7, and 10 points. I ran an inquiry involving Game One favorites in the 'dead' range of -4, -4.5, -5, -5.5, and -6 points. 0-13 O/U since 2005: All WEEK ONE home favorites of -4 to -6 points (Saints). Don't forget..... LAST season, all nine NFL games played on a THURSDAY went 1-8 O/U! ESPN College Football 3*** TV-TOTALS Winner on Thursday night from King Creole Plays rated 2 thru 5 stars 7:45pm ET / #301 / AUBURN Tigers @ MISSISSIPPI STATE Bulldogs 3*** Play on: OVER THE TOTAL Starkville, Mississippi will be JACKED UP on Thursday night for this nationally televised game. Expect 55,000+ fans for the SEC Opener for both teams. And also look for a repeat of last year's game. In that one, Auburn laif 15 points at home and won by a score of 49 to 24. The OU line in that game was 46.5 points... and the 'OVER' ended up hitting by almost FOUR touchdowns (+26.5 points). We can also expect both teams tp continue their HIGH-SCORING (and ALLOWING!) tendencies in the first month of the season. These two teams BOTH went 'Over the Total' in their Game Ones last week. Miss State put up SEVEN touchdowns in their big win over Memphis. Final score was 49 to 7 and the OU line was 47 points (OVER hit by +7 points). Meanwhile, the Auburn Tigers went OVER by a whopping +25.5 points in the their big 52 to 26 win over Arkansas State. What I love about tonight's game are the combined OU tendencies in the first month of the season. These two teams are now a combined 10-1 O/U in their SEPTEMBER games dating back to last season (Auburn: 5-0 O/U / Miss St: 5-1 O/U). AUBURN is a PERFECT 4-0 O/U in their last 4 THURSDAY games over the last decade of play. Also 4-0-2 O/U in their last 6 games dating back to the end of last season... 8-2 O/U after allowing 280+ passing yards... 3-0-1 O/U after allowing < 100 rushing yards... and 3-0-1 O/U on the road vs teams with a winning home record. MISSISSIPPI STATE also trended 'Over' to close out the 2009 season. The Bulldogs are 4-1 O/U in their last 5 games overall. Also a PERFECT 4-0 O/U after accumulating more than 450 total yards of offense... and 5-1 O/U after allowing < 100 yards rushing. SEC Conference games in the FIRST month of the season (September) have gone 14-4 O/U in the last 5 seasons. Auburn's offense is led by quarterback Cam Newton, a junior college transfer who was sensational during his first game. He accounted for 357 yards of total offense and five touchdowns against Arkansas State, living up to the hype that made him one of the most sought after recruits in the country. But Mississippi State will counter with some talent of its own. The Bulldogs will play two quarterbacks - junior Chris Relf and freshman Tyler Russell - who were both very good in the season opener. Relf is just as dangerous running as he is throwing, while Russell is more of a true pocket passer. Russell threw for 256 yards and tied a school record with four touchdown passes against Memphis. The Bulldogs have plenty of playmakers around the quarterbacks as well. Receivers Chad Bumphis and Brandon Heavens each scored two touchdowns in the opener. They used four running backs - Vick Ballard, Robert Elliott, LaDarius Perkins and Adrian Marcus - extensively during the romp over Memphis. |