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| Yesterdays Plays | |
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Vernon Croy's Thursday Night NFL Opener Smash |
| Minnesota Vikings @ New Orleans Saints 8:30 EDT Pick: Minnesota ATS (3*) This pick falls into one of my top NFL systems and beating the Saints would be a perfect start to Brett Favre and the Vikings season after losing to them in the Championship game. The Vikings have had this date marked down since the schedule was announced since they should be the Super Bowl Champions and they will look to prove just that Thursday night. Perhaps the greatest quarterback of all time is looking for redemption Thursday night and the Vikings are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games played against the Saints. Favre will have an easier time this time around with All-Pro safety Darren Sharper out for at least 6 games. Grab the points with the Vikings as my NFL Smash for Thursday night. |
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| 2010-09-09 20:30:00 | |
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Doc’s NFL Thursday Kickoff |
| 3 Unit Play. #4 Take New Orleans Saints over Minnesota Vikings (Thursday 8:30 pm NBC) The first game of the NFL season annually features the Super Bowl Champions at home and tonight that takes place in New Orleans. The defending Super Bowl Champion has been a must play in Week 1, as they are 10-0 straight-up and 7-3 ATS the last ten years. The Vikings are really banged up with injuries and will be without WR Sidney Rice, QB Favre’s go to go last season. The Saints gave the blueprint of how to defend the Vikings in their playoff game last January when they hit QB Favre early and often for sixty-plus minutes. QB Brees finally got the recognition that he deserved last year and now has elevated into the elite class of quarterbacks in the NFL. New Orleans is 5-0 ATS in their last five September games. Minnesota had an easy schedule early in 2009 but that is not the case in 2010. They start 0-1 and a rocky year for them will ensue.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS 30, MINNESOTA VIKINGS 20. |
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| 2010-09-09 20:30:00 | |
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Doc’s NCAAF Thursday Night Lights |
| 4 Unit Play. #36 Take Temple Owls over Central Michigan Chippewas (Thursday 7 pm ESPN U) Last week against division 1-AA opponents, one team (CMU) scored 16 points in the game's first 3 minutes, while the other (Temple) didn't gain the lead until the final 3 seconds of the game. The strength of their respective foes was the reason. Hampton, playing its first FBS opponent ever had an anemic 129 yards of total offense, yielding a safety on the games second play, a 81 yard run back on the free kick, and losing a fumble at their own 12 yd. line when they got the ball back. They quickly proved they didn't belong in this match-up. Temple on the other hand played Villanova the 1-AA champion in 2009 and the only team to defeat them during the regular season last year. This game was a slugfest from start to finish with the Owls finally prevailing.
Having to come from behind to win will serve as a wake-up call for this veteran team. Head coach Al Golden and his staff, almost all of whom have player and coaching experience at Penn St. on their resume, know what it takes to be a winner. It's highly doubtful that fist time coach Dan Enos and his freshly formed staff have had the time to develop this at CMU. The Chip's lost tons of talent to graduation and the team is still learning new systems on both sides of the ball. The combination of new coaches and a 2nd game starter at QB on the first road trip and in their first conference game present too many handicaps to overcome. Temple is plainly more battle ready and will have little trouble in this one. TEMPLE OWLS 34, CENTRAL MICHIGAN CHIPPEWAS 14 |
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| 2010-09-09 19:00:00 | |
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Marc Lawrence 100% ATS Thursday Night College Cash! |
| Play On: Mississippi State (Game 302)
Note: When Gene Chizik leads his troops into Starkville tonight he will do so knowing he is a brutal 1-14 SU in road games as a college football head coach. To make matters worse for Aubbie backers, the Tigers are just 3-7 ATS as conference road favorites of less than seven points and 1-7 ATS away between home games. That’s good news for Mississippi State head man Dan Mullen who is eager to avenge last season’s 49-24 loss at Auburn. Mullen’s 3-1 ATS mark as a conference host is certainly noteworthy but it's our database that seals the deal as it notes that home dogs off a win of 40 or more points are 26-7-1 ATS versus a foe off a win in which they scored more than 36 points, including 12-0 ATS if the home is undefeated and did not cover the spread by 30 or more points in its previous game. You know what to do here. We recommend a 3-unit play on Mississippi State. |
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| 2010-09-09 19:45:00 | |
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Red Dog Sports 10* FIBA Total (USA vs. Russia) |
| USA vs. Russia
11am Thursday UNDER 164 Russia will try to play good defense and use the clock as they have played totals that have reached 141, 121, 138, 169 142 and 134 in their last six games. They are a tall team that plays good defense and are led by David Blatt, who played at Princeton. They just held high scoring New Zealand to 56 points. The USA will probably win by 10-20 points and be happy to get to the semi's. I think we see a game in the 85-68 range that stays under. |
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| 2010-09-09 11:05:00 | |
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Richard Witt's 3* NFL Opening Thursday-Night Side Winner |
| 451 3* Vikings +5 over SAINTS 8:30 PM EDT N'Awleans remains plenty-good, but it's very difficult for a team with ZERO historical winning tradition at Super Bowl level to carry that full measure of hunger over to the following season's opener -- especially as a favorite. Vikes are beginning to show their age, and they have serious issues at cornerback, but given huge Minny revenge motivation after narrow loss in last season's NFC Conference Championship game, find it hard to envision home side maintaining any significant margin, here. Favre loves the spotlight, and he'll be basking in it, in spades, so long as he remains upright. Saints can't relax an inch, and will be pressed to the wire. Vikes give it everything they've got, and at +5, that'll be good enough. 3*, Minnesota |
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| 2010-09-09 20:30:00 | |
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Red Dog Sports 10* College Winner (Auburn at Miss State) |
| Auburn at Miss State
7:45pm Pick: Auburn These two played a 3-2 game two years ago but Auburn won easily at home last year by more than 3 TD's. The War Eagles have a very potent offense and should be able to win this by 7 or more. I like Auburn to win 31-24. Play AUBURN. |
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| 2010-09-09 19:45:00 | |
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Nelly's THURSDAY NIGHT ESPN NCAA WINNER - Sep. 9 |
| Nelly's Pick #302 Mississippi State Bulldogs + over Auburn Tigers 7:45 PM ET
This is a huge early season SEC game and even though Auburn has won eight of the last nine meetings, these teams are much closer than most people probably perceive. Auburn gained some buzz last season with a 49-24 win over the Bulldogs at home to move to 2-0 in Coach Chizik's first season but Mississippi State ended up being very competitive the rest of the way. Coach Mullen is in his second year with the MSU program as well and after going 5-7 and giving scares to several national powerhouses the Bulldogs are looking to climb into the bowl picture this season. The Bulldogs allowed 589 yards against Auburn last season but the rush defense clamped down the rest of the season and this will be a key game to earn some respect heading into a brutal scheduling stretch in the SEC. Last week Mississippi State delivered a rout over rival Memphis with an efficient passing game and a very tough run defense. Auburn also put up big numbers to win last week but it was just a 12-point game in the third quarter and the defense allowed 366 yards. The Bulldogs have been dangerous home underdogs in and should be the better defensive team. Mississippi State also fits a fantastic system as a home underdog that won and covered in the previous game while topping 40 points. Teams in this situation have hit well over 60 percent in the last six years. Nelly's rates our regular football selections 1, 2, and 3-stars, this selection is rated 1-star. It is a long season so please have a money management plan and be conservative and conscientious with your wagers. Thanks for playing with Nelly's Sportsline and best of luck to both of us in today's game. |
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| 2010-09-09 19:45:00 | |
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NCAA Football "Thursday Night Special" from Will Cover for September 9th! |
| Rating 1,2,3,4,5 3-Star: TEMPLE minus vs Central Michigan. 7pm EST ESPN-U COVER STORY: Well aware that CMU is an outstanding 10-1 ATS in MAC openers, but asking the Chips to stay in this one is a bit too much. Central is coming off a fine 33-0 home win over I-AA Hampton, but they will have their hands full against this loaded Temple squad. Central Michigan is in a rebuilding mode with a first year head coach, installing new systems on both sides of the ball, under a relatively inexperienced QB, and playing on the road with just 11 returning starters. Temple got their revenge last week against a strong Villanova team, 31-24. Yes, the Wildcats are also a I-AA member, but are far superior to Hampton as the Cats are the defending National Champs in I-AA and can play with any mid-major Division I team in the nation. Reports from Philly state that the Owls are focused on this rare National TV appearance with 17 starters returning, including eight on the MAC's best defense. TU also rates an solid edge on the all-important special teams. Look for the one/two punch of RB's Pierce and Brown to gash the CMU defense, thus opening up a potent Owl passing attack. The home team is 2-0 ATS in this series and Temple on a 17-9 ATS run at home. Lay it! |
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| 2010-09-09 19:00:00 | |
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Great Lakes Sports With A 4* Best Bet NFL Slammer For Thursday !! |
| Great Lakes Sports rates their selections 3*, 4*,&5* with 5* being our highest rated selection. Major League Baseball Selection: Minnesota at New Orleans 8:30PM EST PLAY on: 4* (451) MINNESOTA VIKINGS The Vikings come into this season opener with a perfect 4-0 ATS mark in their last 4 games played at New Orleans. In last years' NFC Title game, Minnesota held the Saints high powered offense to just 257 total yards. The Vikings are a very strong 4-1 ATS as underdogs in week one, Minnesota is also a very impressive 7-2 ATS in Thursday night contests. While the Saints won last years game and the prize with a trip to the Super Bowl. A deeper look inside the numbers, shows that it was the Vikings who brought home the cash with a 1/2 point road ATS cover in last years' contest. SU revenge will also be on the line tonight for the Vikings. TAKE: Minnesota and the points. MINNESOTA OVER New Orleans. |
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| 2010-09-09 20:30:00 | |
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Great Lakes Sports With Another Huge 4* MLB Powerhouse Winner !! |
| Great Lakes Sports rates their selections 3*, 4*,&5* with 5* being our highest rated selection. Major League Baseball Selection: St Louis at Atlanta 7:10PM EST Play on: 4* (903) St Louis Cardinals with Wainwright The St Louis Cardinals are a very respectable 11-6 vs the Atlanta Braves the last three years, and the St Louis Cardinals are a perfect 4-0 vs the Atlanta Braves this year. The St Louis Cardinals is also 5-2 when playing at Atlanta the last three years while the Atlanta Braves is only 3-5 when playing in the month of September this year. We look for the St Louis Cardinals with Wainwright to dismantle the Atlanta Braves to grab the road Win&Cover tonight. TAKE: 4* (903) St Louis Cardinals with Wainwright |
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| 2010-09-09 19:10:00 | |
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Touchdown Club Thursday National Football League Selection from Big Game James Patrick Sports |
| Vikings vs. Saints 8:30 p.m. est.
Only the Saints scored more points than the Vikings, who averaged 29.4 PPG. They ranked fifth in total yards (379.6 per game) as well and picking up where they left off should be no problem. Favre is coming off what he’s calling the best season of his 19-year career. RB Adrian Peterson is the best in the business and the front line returns intact, and is considered one of the league’s best. Running the ball against the Vikings hasn’t been a good idea since 2006. The stop unit has led the league in rushing defense for three consecutive seasons and ranked No. 2 a year ago. The unit wasn’t too shabby against the pass, either, topping the league in sacks with 48. DE Jared Allen has been a nightmare for opposing offenses in his two years in Minnesota. If there’s any weakness, the secondary could prove porous but he Vikings are seeking a third straight playoff appearance and probably won’t be pleased with anything less than a trip to the Super Bowl. Almost everything about the Minnesota Vikings' 2009 season was magical, that is except for the nightmarish ending. What had gone so well for Brett Favre & the Vikings turned in an instant on an interception in the NFC title game. It might be difficult to recapture the magic that defined his first campaign with the team but let's remember that the Saints ended (43) years of futility with a Super Bowl win. Talented team but it will be tough to win (13) games in 2010. These teams always play them close so why should we expect anything else in this season opener ? Payback for the Purple People Eaters ! 3* #451 Minnesota Vikings |
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| 2010-09-09 20:30:00 | |
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NCAA College Football Kicks –off Thursday with Pot of Gold from James Patrick Sports |
| Auburn vs. Mississippi State 7:45 p.m. est. ESPN
“Look out for Auburn this season”, as Big Game James has said, they score a ton of points and should play and lose to Florida in SEC Championship Game. These Tigers were even on the verge of an Iron Bowl win before arch-rival Alabama rallied for a 26-21 victory on their way to the national title. The good news is eight home games dot the slate and 15 starters return, including the majority of offensive and defensive linemen.Wait until you see the size of Cameron Newton, a 6-6, 247-pound junior-college gem at quarterback gives the Auburn fans a chance to see the complete version of coordinator Gus Malzahn’ offense. Newton can threaten opposing defenses with both his running and passing skills. After leading the nation in increased attendance last season, 34,127 fans attended the Bulldogs spring game – a new record in the state of Mississippi. It seems somewhat amazing that Mississippi State finished just one win shy of a bowl game in Mullen’s debut. The defense gave up a ton of points (26.8 PPG), while the offense was a one-trick pony that finished ninth nationally, averaging 227.6 with a powerhouse attack. Mississippi State can put some points on the board as well. Looks to us like an SEC Shootout in Starkville. 5* Pot of Gold #302 Auburn - MSU Over the Total |
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| 2010-09-09 19:45:00 | |
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SAINTS / VIKINGS Thursday night 3*** OVER / UNDER Winner from King Creole: |
| Plays rated 2 thru 5 stars 8:30pm ET / Minnesota Vikings @ New Orleans Saints 3*** Play on: UNDER the TOTAL When the opening lines in this game came out (2.5 months ago!), this one started at 51 points. As the Brett Favre speculation continued, the number started creeping in a downward direction. It settled at its current line of 48.5 to 49 points. There is a good chance however that this OU line will start to creep back up again on gameday. I think that is a good sign... since gameday betting volume that drives a line up usually comes from the squares. I would play half of my budget for this game ASAP.... but hold off on playing the other half after we monitor which way the line will move on Thursday. If it starts to go up, then play the other half when the OU line 'tops out'. I wrote about this aspect of the game in the 2010 Playbook Yearbook. If you are planning on playing Game One 'OVERS' in the NFL, it would be prudent to stay away from the games with the higher OU lines. NEVER go “Over” the total in the first game of the year when you see an extremely high OU line. According to our NFL database, WEEK ONE games with an OU line of 45 > points have gone 7-26 O/U since the 2001 season. And in the last 5 years, this System has gone 2-14 O/U, Most of the time, these games aren’t even close. Average OU margin is -11.8.0 points, meaning the average game goes UNDER by more than 10 points! The next aspect of our database querying involves the site of this game. This comes from the "DOMER Homer" set that I created. It pertains to the teams in the NFL that play their home games in an indoor environment. 1-9 O/U since 2004: All WEEK ONE home favorites of < 14 points playing in a DOME (New Orl). As mentioned in our promo, this is a rematch of the NFC Title Game from last year. New Orleans went 13-3 SU in 2009... while Minnesota went 12-4 SU. 1-8 O/U since 2004: All WEEK ONE games in which BOTH teams won 11+ games last season (Saints / Vikings). New Orleans has a big MONDAY night game up next week as they head out to the Bay Area to take on the San Francisco 49ers. 0-6 O/U last 3 years: All WEEK ONE teams who have a Monday night game in Week Two (Saints). The Vikings start off the 2010 season with a pair of non-division games..... against the Saints in Week One.... and against the Dolphins in Week Two. 1-13 O/U since 2005: All WEEK ONE road teams who start off the season with back-to-back non-division games (Vikings). We close the System querying with a look at the pointspread in this game. With New Orleans favored at -5.5 points, that is pretty much a 'dead' number. Of course, all sharp players know that the most important KEY numbers in football are 3, 4, 7, and 10 points. I ran an inquiry involving Game One favorites in the 'dead' range of -4, -4.5, -5, -5.5, and -6 points. 0-13 O/U since 2005: All WEEK ONE home favorites of -4 to -6 points (Saints). Don't forget..... LAST season, all nine NFL games played on a THURSDAY went 1-8 O/U! |
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| 2010-09-09 20:35:00 | |
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Playbook.com College Football Thursday Night Featured Play! 9/9 |
| Play - Central Michigan (Game 345) Edges - Chippewas 9-1 ATS Game Two; and 5-1 SUATS L6 conference dogs; and 14-4 ATS vs conference foe off win. Owls: 0-2 SU all-time in this series. |
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| 2010-09-09 19:00:00 | |
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Steve Merril's Daytime MLB Grand Slam - *Early Afternoon* |
| 3* Rockies (Game # 902)
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| 2010-09-09 15:10:00 | |
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Steve Merril's MLB Game of the Night! |
| 3* Astros (+1.5 runline) (Game # 906)
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| 2010-09-09 20:05:00 | |
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R.Vinciletti: NL. 92% POWER SYSTEM GAME OF THE WEEK |
| On Thursday the National League system play is on the SD. Padres. Game 908 at 10:05 eastern. SD firs a solid system that plays on certain home teams with a total of 8 or less playing off a home dog win, vs an opponent off a road dog loss and scored 4 or less runs. This system wins by an average 5-2 score long term. The Padres have now won 3 straight after losing the prior 10 straight. This season they have took down the Giants winning 9 of 11 times. The Giants are hitting under.200 the past week. The Padres have a pitching advantage all the way around. J. Garalnd has better overall numbers then SF starter M. Cain. SD also has a solid 2.50 home bullpen era. Look for the Padres to take the opening game of the series. | |
| 2010-09-09 22:05:00 | |
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Rob Vinciletti: NFL WEEK 1 CUTTING EDGE POWER SYSTEM |
| On Thursday the NFL System play is on the Minnesota Vikings. Game 451 at 8:30 eastern. What we want to do is play against Game 1 Super Bowl champions if they are going into revenge. These champs are a poor 1-6 ats. This is right back playoff Revenge for the Vikings who are 5-0 ats the last 5 vs the Saints and have covered the last 4 times in New Orleans. Last years game was decided by 3 points. The Vikings clamped down on the Saints in the second half of that game. However they were done in by a big pick from B. Favre. Tonight the Vikings have this one circled and should cover the 5.5 points. Take The Vikings | |
| 2010-09-09 20:30:00 | |
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Tom Stryker's 15-6 ATS CFB Thursday Night Shocker |
| Tom rates his online plays 1* to 5* with a 5* being the strongest. 2* #442 TEMPLE (-) over Central Michigan at 7 PM EST Off a difficult home win over Villanova and with Connecticut and Penn State on deck, Temple needs to take care of business inside Lincoln Financial Field on Thursday night. Finding motivation for this contest won't be difficult. Two years ago, Central Michigan slipped past Temple 24-14 at Kelly Shorts Stadium and it was a game that the Chippewas should have never won. The Owls came out on top in the yardage battle 301-297 but fell victim to four turnovers! Since suffering a 7-3 home loss to Western Michigan back on September 27th, 2008, Temple has quietly ripped off seven consecutive conference wins in its own backyard. The Owls have put up a ton of points too in those victories averaging 34.0 points per game! Considering CMU has won 18 straight games against foes from the MAC East Division, this won't exactly be a walk-in-the-park for Temple. Fortunately, this Chippewas team isn't as strong as the ones the Owls faced in 2008 or 2006. Five sophomores made their first start last week against Hampton including quarterback Ryan Radcliff. This will be QB Radcliff's first road start and it's coming against the best defensive team in the MAC. Oh yeah, and it's on an NFL field with a national ESPNU audience watching! Central's defense pitched a shutout last week and that fact could have plenty of novice handicappers jumping all over the Chippewas plus the points here. Not so fast my friend. Since 1980, game two college road dogs priced at +7 or more are a woeful 1-21 SU and 6-15-1 ATS provided they enter off a shutout home win in their season opener. There are four visitors locked into this situation this weekend: Idaho, Miami Florida, Buffalo and Central Michigan! In order to be the best, you have to beat the best. CMU has been a MAC beast over the years and this is the Owls chance to take over that "king of the mountain" spot. Take Temple minus the points. Thank you and best of luck, Tom Stryker. |
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| 2010-09-09 19:00:00 | |
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Tom Stryker's 17-4 ATS NFL Monster Angle Play |
| Tom rates his online plays 1* to 5* with a 5* being the strongest. 1* #452 NEW ORLEANS (-) over Minnesota at 8:30 PM EST Yes, I realize that Minnesota is playing with revenge. But, I'm not going to bite. Down the stretch last season, the Vikings were one of the NFL's worst road teams (lost four straight and five of their last six) and I don't think they have the offensive tools on board (especially with WR Sidney Rice out with a hip) to trade points with the Saints on Thursday night. Since a road loss at Atlanta back on November 9th, 2008, New Orleans has been a pointspread machine posting a reliable 16-9-1 ATS record in its last 26 games. A great deal of that profit has come when the Saints have faced a non-division foe - now 15-2 SU and 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 tries. Don't forget, there is a strong league trend that supports New Orleans here as well. NFL Favorites on Thursday have been money-in-the-bank too posting a stunning 33-7 SU and 30-9-1 ATS record including 17-4 ATS in this sweet set laying -4 or more! As an underdog, the Vikes have struggled a touch notching a soft 12-28 SU and 15-23-2 ATS mark including a miserable 8-19 SU and 9-17-1 ATS in this role matched up against a non-division opponent. Tie that up with the Purple's 7-14-1 ATS record in road openers and you have more than enough technical information to make this investment. Take New Orleans minus the points. Thank you and best of luck, Tom Stryker. |
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| 2010-09-09 20:30:00 | |
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Fargo’s **10** CFB THURSDAY **GAME OF THE MONTH** |
| I have waited to watch the line moves on this game and we have some interesting movement. The game opened as Auburn being a 2.5 to 3-point favorite which was far from surprising. The Tigers are the higher profile team and the team that will be most bet on which is certainly the case in this matchup as 78 percent of the 12,000+ wagers have been placed on Auburn. Yet, the line has come down to -1.5 and this reverse line move shows the home team is worth a huge look. Both teams are coming off relatively easy wins last week as Auburn took care of Arkansas St. while Mississippi St. slammed Memphis. Auburn’s offense continued to shine under second-year offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn, rolling up 608 yards of offense against Arkansas St. It marked the fifth time in 14 games under Malzahn that Auburn totaled at least 500 yards of offense. The Tigers will now face a defense that was average last season but is hugely improved and much more aggressive this year. Stopping the run will be important for the Bulldogs which was something they could not do in 2009 allowing 146 ypg on 4.0 ypc. The defensive line is vastly improved despite being young because there is experience and as far as unit rankings go, Mississippi St.’s defensive line is in the top 20 in the country and top three in the SEC. The Bulldogs allowed just 41 yards on 2.0 ypc last week against Memphis and stopping the run will put a lot of pressure on quarterback Cam Newton in his first ever road start. Speaking of Newton, there is an edge for the Bulldogs that has gone unnoticed. We cannot forget that Mississippi St. head coach Dan Mullen was the offensive coordinator/quarterbacks coach at Florida for four years and he was there when Newton was in Florida for a season before transferring to a junior college. Mullen recruited Newton twice, once at Florida, and then again out of junior college when he took the Mississippi St. job. It is safe to say he will know how to prepare his team for Newton. Some will note that Auburn is 16-1 in its last 17 conference openers but that means little when you consider the Tigers had their 14-game winning streak in SEC openers snapped in 2007 by Mississippi St. There is also some revenge in place for the Bulldogs which were hammered pretty good last year by 25 points in the SEC opener as well. The Bulldogs are well aware that they have scored a total of two points the last two meetings in Starkville and this much improved offense will be out for redemption. Auburn is 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games against home teams with a winning record and 3-15 ATS in their last 18 games coming off a game where they tallied more than 450 total yards of offense while Mississippi St. is 4-1 ATS in the same scenario. The Bulldogs also fall into a solid underdog situation. Play on home underdogs coming off a win by 40 or more points going up against a team coming off a win by scoring 36 or more points. This situation is 26-7 ATS (78.8 percent). 10* Mississippi St. Bulldogs | |
| 2010-09-09 19:45:00 | |
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MREAST MLB THURSDAY PLAY OF THE DAY |
| The San Diego Padres are back on track after losing 10 straight games, going into Wednesday night, they have now won 2 straight. San Francisco has gotten some strong innings out of Matt Cain, but they are just 9-15 in his last 24 road starts. meanwhile, Jon Garland has been reborn in San Diego. He has allowed more than 3 runs just 1 time since the all-star break. Opponents have scored just 25 total runs, including the #1 ranked bullpen in baseball, over his last 10 starts. Cain, and the Giants, have been an atrocious 5-23 in his last 28 road starts vs a team with a winning record. I'll opt for San Diego on the runline. #907 SF GIANTS @ #908 SD PADRES 10:05PM EDT PLAY ON #908 SD PADRES -1.5 +195 FOR 3 UNITS ALL PLAYS 3-5 UNITS |
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| 2010-09-09 22:00:00 | |
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MREAST NFL THURSDAY PLAY OF THE DAY |
| The NFL season is finally here. The first game should be a great one between the Minnesota Vikings and the New Orleans Saints. These clubs both displayed explosive offenses a year ago. This is game one and quite often the offenses aren't in mid-season form yet, and the oddsmakers must base their assessment off of last season, and a generally "over" wagering public. The early numbers show the public is already weighing in on the over at a 65% rate. They will likely be disappointed as NFL game 1 totals greater than 45.5 are 24-9 to the under since 1994! They will also be disappointed to learn that teams that finish in the top 3 in points scored per game the year before, are 24-12 to the under in game 1 the following year. If they averaged 28 or more points they are 13-7, and if they averaged 30+ points they are 7-4 to the under in game 1. I will go with the under in this one. #451 MINNESOTA VIKINGS @ #452 NEW ORLEANS SAINTS 8:30PM EDT PLAY ON #451 MINNESOTA VIKINGS @ #452 NEW ORLEANS SAINTS UNDER 48 -110 FOR 3 UNITS ALL PLAYS 3-5 UNITS |
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| 2010-09-09 20:30:00 | |
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Fargo’s **10** NFL THURSDAY MINN/NO *ANNIHILATOR* |
| We really could not ask for much better of a matchup than we have for the opening game Thursday night. The Vikings head back to New Orleans for a rematch of last season’s NFC Championship game looking for some revenge after losing to the Saints in overtime. It was a game the Vikings should have won as they outgained New Orleans by 218 total yards but turnovers ended up being the difference. Minnesota lost the turnover battle 5-1 and no team can win with that negative disparity. A lot of the concern here is how Brett Favre is going to perform. He missed a lot of training camp as well as not playing much in the preseason games so he could come out rusty. When he did play however he was pretty solid and a veteran such as him, who has been in this system for a year, will not have problems. Favre had a decent game against the Saints last season but he was pressured constantly and ended up throwing two picks. Minnesota will have adjustments made this time around. The Saints offense is one of the best around and it showed that many times last season but the Vikings defense is no slouch. They held the Saints to only 257 total yards in the NFC Championship which was the second lowest output for New Orleans all season with the lowest being the final regular season game against Carolina where none of the starters saw action. Minnesota allowed more than 300 total yards only seven times all of last season including just three times in the final 10 games. The hype for this game is huge in New Orleans with all of the festivities surrounding last year’s Super Bowl title. The Saints will be receiving their rings on Thursday and that is one angle that I love to play. In the NBA, playing against the World Champions in their first couple week has been a huge moneymaker. In the NFL, it has not been the same but we saw it last year with the Steelers who won their opener but failed to cover the number against the Titans. The Saints closed last season by going 5-9 ATS after a 6-0 ATS start to the linesmakers eventually caught up while the public lost a bundle. There will be no soft numbers on New Orleans this season as we will see some inflated points spreads throughout the season. We are seeing the value in this line as Minnesota is getting an additional point more than it was in the NFC Championship and even though it is just a single point difference, it is still considered value. This line can only go up more from here. 10* Minnesota Vikings | |
| 2010-09-09 20:30:00 | |
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Fargo’s **10** MLB DIVISIONAL **GAME OF THE YEAR** |
| This is the start of an enormous series between the Giants and Padres. With San Diego winning last night and San Francisco going down, the Padres increased their lead to two games in the National League West. While important for both sides, it is bigger for San Diego as the majority of its remaining games after this are on the road and all 13 of those away games against teams with winning records and still in the playoff hunt. This includes three games against the Giants to end the season. San Francisco has made this a divisional race again as it was able to make up ground during San Diego’s 10-game losing streak. The Giants are 4-2 during this roadtrip to move to a game over .500 on the road for the season and this is not the best place to keep that urn going. San Diego is 4-1 at home in the season series and overall, the Padres are 9-2 in the 11 meetings this year. The offense is hurting right now as San Francisco is hitting a mere .209 over its last 10 games while scoring three runs or less six times. The pitching matchup looks even on paper but the edge goes to the home team. Jon Garland gets the opening night call for San Diego. He started the season on fire but slipped in June and July before coming back strong over his last eight starts where he has posted a 2.57 ERA with six of those starts being quality outings. In those eight games, he has not allowed more than three runs in any of them. He has a 2.68 ERA compared to 4.04 on the road and against the Giants in his career he is 3-0 with a 2.15 ERA covering four starts. San Francisco counters with Matt Cain and he has been a tough luck pitcher on the road for years. That is the case again this season. He has pitched well away from home as he has a 3.69 ERA in 14 road starts but he is 3-7 with the Giants going 5-9 in those games. In contrast, he is 7-3 and San Francisco is 10-4 in 14 home outings. Run support is the main issue as the Giants are averaging a mere 2.9 rpg in his road starts. They are 0-3 in three games against the Padres with Cain on the hill this season. San Francisco is 5-23 in Cain’s last 28 road starts against teams with a winning record. Play on home teams with the moneyline between +125 and -125 with a starting pitcher whose ERA is less than 3.00 over his last 10 games and with a bullpen whose ERA is less than 3.00 over the last 15 games. This situation is 37-15 (71.2 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* San Diego Padres | |
| 2010-09-09 22:05:00 | |
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Rocketman Sports 3* MLB Afternoon BLOWOUT Thursday! #3 in nation! |
| Rocketman Sports plays are rated 1-5 units!
MLB Chicago White Sox @ Detroit 1:05 PM EST Play On: 3* Chicago White Sox -125 (Floyd/Porcello) Listed Chicago White Sox are now 77-62 overall this year while Detroit comes in with a 70-70 overall record on the season. White Sox now find themselves behind AL Central Division 1st place leader Minnesota by 5 1/2 games after dropping the last two games here against Detroit. Chicago White Sox have now won 7 of their last 9 games overall. White Sox are 61-45 against right handed starters this year. White Sox bullpen has a 3.73 ERA overall this year and a 3.10 ERA on the road this season. Gavin Floyd has a 3.78 ERA overall this year and is 2-1 with a 2.29 ERA his last 3 starts. Floyd is 5-0 with a 3.20 ERA overall vs Detroit since 1997. Rick Porcello is 0-4 with a 8.67 ERA overall vs Chicago White Sox since 1997. We'll play the Chicago White Sox for 3 units today! Thanks and good luck, Rocky |
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| 2010-09-09 13:05:00 | |
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Tom Freese Blue Line Club MLB 15* GAME OF THE WEEEK GOED TONIGHT! |
| Tom Freese Blue Line Club- Thursday, 9/9/2010
San Francisco at San Diego(10:05pm) San Francisco starter Matt Cain has 3 walks and 20 strikeouts in his last 3 starts. The Giants are 20-9 their last 29 games as favorites and they are 16-7 off loss. The Giants are 8-2 in the last 10 starts made by Cain. San Diego starter Jon Garland has lost his last two starts. The Padres are 3-10 their last 13 games overall. San Diego is 2-8 their last 10 games as favorites. The Padres are 1-6 their last 7 games vs. winning teams and they are 3-7 their last 10 home games. 15* MLB GAME OF THE WEEK PLAY ON SAN FRANCISCO + (Cain vs. Garland) Tom Freese cashed his PITCHING MISMATCH PLAY last night with Arizona. On Thursday is releasing his 15* MLB GAME OF THE WEEK! Tom is now 85-64 in MLB this year! DON'T MISS OUT! |
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| 2010-09-09 22:05:00 | |
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ESPN College Football 3*** TV-TOTALS Winner on Thursday night from King Creole |
| Plays rated 2 thru 5 stars 7:45pm ET / #301 / AUBURN Tigers @ MISSISSIPPI STATE Bulldogs 3*** Play on: OVER THE TOTAL Starkville, Mississippi will be JACKED UP on Thursday night for this nationally televised game. Expect 55,000+ fans for the SEC Opener for both teams. And also look for a repeat of last year's game. In that one, Auburn laif 15 points at home and won by a score of 49 to 24. The OU line in that game was 46.5 points... and the 'OVER' ended up hitting by almost FOUR touchdowns (+26.5 points). We can also expect both teams tp continue their HIGH-SCORING (and ALLOWING!) tendencies in the first month of the season. These two teams BOTH went 'Over the Total' in their Game Ones last week. Miss State put up SEVEN touchdowns in their big win over Memphis. Final score was 49 to 7 and the OU line was 47 points (OVER hit by +7 points). Meanwhile, the Auburn Tigers went OVER by a whopping +25.5 points in the their big 52 to 26 win over Arkansas State. What I love about tonight's game are the combined OU tendencies in the first month of the season. These two teams are now a combined 10-1 O/U in their SEPTEMBER games dating back to last season (Auburn: 5-0 O/U / Miss St: 5-1 O/U). AUBURN is a PERFECT 4-0 O/U in their last 4 THURSDAY games over the last decade of play. Also 4-0-2 O/U in their last 6 games dating back to the end of last season... 8-2 O/U after allowing 280+ passing yards... 3-0-1 O/U after allowing < 100 rushing yards... and 3-0-1 O/U on the road vs teams with a winning home record. MISSISSIPPI STATE also trended 'Over' to close out the 2009 season. The Bulldogs are 4-1 O/U in their last 5 games overall. Also a PERFECT 4-0 O/U after accumulating more than 450 total yards of offense... and 5-1 O/U after allowing < 100 yards rushing. SEC Conference games in the FIRST month of the season (September) have gone 14-4 O/U in the last 5 seasons. Auburn's offense is led by quarterback Cam Newton, a junior college transfer who was sensational during his first game. He accounted for 357 yards of total offense and five touchdowns against Arkansas State, living up to the hype that made him one of the most sought after recruits in the country. But Mississippi State will counter with some talent of its own. The Bulldogs will play two quarterbacks - junior Chris Relf and freshman Tyler Russell - who were both very good in the season opener. Relf is just as dangerous running as he is throwing, while Russell is more of a true pocket passer. Russell threw for 256 yards and tied a school record with four touchdown passes against Memphis. The Bulldogs have plenty of playmakers around the quarterbacks as well. Receivers Chad Bumphis and Brandon Heavens each scored two touchdowns in the opener. They used four running backs - Vick Ballard, Robert Elliott, LaDarius Perkins and Adrian Marcus - extensively during the romp over Memphis. |
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| 2010-09-09 19:50:00 | |
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Triple Threat SAINTS vs VIKINGS Winner!! |
| 3.5* Minnesota (+) over New Orleans [8:30pm] Two months ago, when most of the Vegas books came out with their Week One lines, this game was New Orleans -4, and that was with the general assumption that Brett Favre would play. Then, when he briefly announced he would not play, the line only slightly went up, to 4' and in some spot 5. However, now that everyone KNOWS he is playing the line has come back down to....oh wait, the line has gone UP since we all know he is playing? This week it has been "free money on the Saints" in the Vegas books, as the public money has been pouring in on New Orleans to the tune of the Saints being as high as -6 in some spots. Not only does this provide a great deal of line value on the Vikings (as the line should be 4) it also makes the Saints a massive public play, and those usually do not do well. However, even ignoring the technicalities of the line, note that last year when these two teams played it the Vikings that had a 475-257 yard edge and the Vikings that had the ball late in the fourth quarter with a chance to salt it away, and the Vikings that had a 31-15 edge in first downs. The Minnesota rush defense held the Saints to just 68 yards and 3.0 yards per carry while the secondary allowed Brees to throw for just 189 yards and complete less than 55% of his passes. No, Minnesota did not win that game, but they were the better team, and now on the same field they are getting twice as many points as they did in the NFC Championship Game. Finally, numbers show that the Saints 3-8 ATS in their last 11 chalk roles last year. Take the points. Thanks, and Good Luck! |
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| 2010-09-09 20:35:00 | |
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Thursday NFL Action, BOTH opportunities here from Stan Lisowski |
451/452 3 star OVER 48.5 The Vikings scored 27 or more points in 15 of 18 games last season while OPINION (Plays are rated 3-5 stars, with 10 star releases reserved for Game of the Month or Game of the Year type selections. 4 stars and up are considered “Best Bets” Please adjust your bankroll accordingly.) |
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| 2010-09-09 20:30:00 | |
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Triple Threat Sports Big MAC Winner! |
| 3* Temple (-) over Central Michigan [9pm] Temple may have "only" beaten Villanova by seven last week (and really just one, as there was a crazy sequence on the final play that led to an Owl TD) but do not forget that Villanova was the Div 1AA (I know, I know, FCS) National Champions last year, so it was still a solid win. On the other hand CMU beat Hampton (5-6 last year) 33-0 in what was the first ever game for Hampton against a Division 1 school, and even though the final score was lopsided note that CMU got 23 of its 33 points on "drives" covering 0, 1, 12, and 40 yards, and that was at home. Now the young Chippewas (12 returning starters) are making their first road trip, playing the most talented team in the conference, and doing so with a young QB trying to replace a legend in LeFevour. They are also dealing with scheme changes on both sides of the ball, and while dealing with those changes is easy at home against a lesser foe, doing so on the road on national TV (for those not watching the NFL game) is another story. Finally, note that last season the Owls were -11 or less home conference favorites three times and won those games 37-13, 27-13, and 47-13. We will go with 33-17 this time around. Thanks, and Good Luck! |
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| 2010-09-09 21:05:00 | |
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Steve Merril's NFL Top Play Total - Vikings/Saints |
| 3* UNDER the total (Game # 451-452)
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| 2010-09-09 20:30:00 | |
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Richard Witt's 3* Thursday-Night NFL Over/Under |
| 451 3* Vikings/SAINTS OVER 48 1/2 8:30 PM EDT These stories about one side looking to try to play keepaway from the other in this one seem extreme, to us. The significant cluster injuries to both defenses will make it very hard for either the control the tempo for extended periods. So long as Favre remains upright against what's expected to be fearsome Saint defensive pressure, there figures to be considerable touchdown-swapping once the butterflies disappear and both sides settle into optimum stroke. This should get into the mid-50s with ease, and they may not be the end of it . . . jsut what the league wants -- an opening-night barnburner. 3*, OVER 48 1/2. |
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| 2010-09-09 20:30:00 | |
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Cajun Sports 3* CFB Power System Special 19-2 ATS |
Game: Auburn Tigers @ Mississippi State Bulldogs Date/Time: Thursday Sept 9 / 7:45PM EST (ESPN) Selection: 3* Mississippi State Bulldogs +2 Analysis: Auburn travels to Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field in Starkville Mississippi to open SEC Conference play against the host Mississippi State Bulldogs. Both teams are coming in off opening week wins as Auburn defeated Arkansas State and Mississippi State demolished their out of conference rival Memphis Tigers. Auburn’s offense continued to shine under OC Gus Malzahn, putting up 608 yards of offense against Arkansas St. The Tigers face a defense that is much improved and much more aggressive this year. The defensive line is much stronger this season despite the fact they are young there is experience in that group as evidenced by the fact, Mississippi St.’s defensive line is in the top twenty in the nation and top three in the SEC. The Bulldogs allowed just 41 yards on 2.0 yards per carry last week against Memphis and stopping the run will put a lot of pressure on quarterback Cam Newton in his first road start for the Tigers. Mississippi St. HC Dan Mullen was the offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach at Florida for four years and he was there when Newton was in Florida for a season before transferring to a junior college. Mullen actually recruited Newton twice once at Florida and then at his current job so we feel certain he will have his team ready to defend against Auburn’s young QB. Mullen is 3-1 ATS as a conference host and we know that home underdogs off a win by forty or more points facing a team off a win scoring thirty-six or more are a moneymaking 26-7-1 against the spread. A check of our database reveals two strong league-wide systems that are active for tonight’s contest. Play AGAINST a non-Saturday road team with less than 11 days rest off a non-conference game against a Sun Belt Conference or 1-AA team. These road teams are 3-18 ATS failing to cover by almost nine points per game. Play ON a non-Saturday home team (not a favorite of more than 26 points or underdog of more than 23 points) with less than 9 days rest off a SU win scoring 49+ points vs. an opponent not off a conference home SU&ATS win as a favorite of more than 6 points. These home teams are 19-2-1 ATS covering the spread by 10.9 points per game. We will back a revenge-minded host as the Bulldogs pull off a minor upset in Starkville on Thursday night. PROJECTED FORECAST: 3* Mississippi State Bulldogs 23 Auburn Tigers 19 |
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| 2010-09-09 19:45:00 | |