|King's CHRISTMAS EVE Sunday NFL 10* GAME of the YEAR is flying OVER the TOTAL!|
Plays rated 2 thru 5 stars
Sunday, Dec. 24th
1:00pm ET / 10:00am PT
NFC South Division
ATLANTA FALCONS (9-5 SU)
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (10-4 SU)
10* GOY Best Bet on: OVER THE TOTAL
Obviously, this game has been on our ‘OU radar’ for about four-five weeks now. At that time, it was pretty apparent that both teams would duke it out until the very end (especially so with the Falcons winning the first meeting two short weeks ago in Atlanta). Two VERY GOOD teams… both still heavily involved in potential DIVISION TITLE aspirations (and the 1st round Bye)… both with TOP TEN offenses on the year… in the controlled environment of the ‘COORS FIELD’ of Football (Mercedes-Benz Stadium in the Big Easy)… with a short enough pointspread in which the outcome could very come down to whoever has the ball LAST. There’s no quit in these two teams. We don’t have to worry about one team already in ‘TANK mode’…. like 11 other games on the Week 15 schedule. If this game was played IN Atlanta, we might not SLAM the OVER. In fact, in the first meeting two weeks ago… we indeed cashed a 3*** Winner on the UNDER (OU line was 51.5 / final score was 20 to 17). But there’s a LOT more at stake in this week’s game, and we like the OU tendencies down here in New Orleans a lot better. Like a series that’s gone 6-2-1 O/U here in the Big Easy…with some gaudy point totals like 70 points (last year’s EXACT SAME Week 16 matchup!)… 77 points (the 2015 game IN New Orleans)… and 71 points (in 2014). In addition to each team’s solid offensive numbers, everything else in regards to this one comes from pure database querying. So let’s get to it. All non-related database situations come out as 90% or better in terms of OVER results...
New Orleans was just a h-u-g-e home favorite of -16 points last week against the Jets… 20-4 O/U ALL-TIME in our database / 12-0 O/U since 2002: All NFL teams AFTER a game in which they were a BIG non-division favorite of -16 or MORE points (SAINTS).
In that game last week, there Saints WON outright, but did NOT get the cash (ATS loss)… 9-1 O/U since 2011: All NFC home favorites of > 3 points off a SU home win BUT an ATS loss (SAINTS), when the OU line is > 40 points.
The pointspread of this one is currently in what is known as the ‘dead zone’ (a team favored by -4.5 to -6.5 points). Couple that dead zone spread together with the high OU Line, and you get the following: 11-1 O/U last 2 years: All NFC home favorites of -4.5 to -6.5 points (SAINTS) with a high OU line of > 48 points.
Yes, this is Week 16 overall. But with each team having a Bye, it is actually GAME 15 for each team. And this week’s schedule does not have a lot of games involving WINNING teams…. LAST season (2016), GAME 15’s involving TWO winning (> .500) teams (FALCONS @ SAINTS) went a PERFECT 4-0 O/U… with an average of +10.8 points per game.
In fact, both teams have great W/L percentages of OVER .600 on the year (Saints: 10-4 SU / Falcons: 9-5 SU)… 9-1 O/U last 4 years / 6-0 O/U last 2 years: All GAME SIX or greater home favorites of > 4 points when BOTH teams (SAINTS / FALCONS) are > .600 on the season. Gotta love those added POINTS when two heavyweights play each other!
Atlanta comes in off the perfect Monday Night outcome for an OVER, according to our database. They beat division rival Tampa on Monday down here in the Sunshine State… 9-1-1 O/U last 4 years: All NFL teams off a MONDAY NIGHT road win (FALCONS) when the OU line is 48 or more points.
There is a HUGE line switch for the traveling Falcons in this short two-week span. They go from big road favorites of -7 points (vs Tampa on Monday) to mid-range road underdogs in the very next week (+5 to +6). That a line move off about 13 points. This line switch has historically been a good one for OVER results. Yes, it’s a small sample size, but SIGNIFICANT nevertheless… 7-0 O/U in the HISTORY of our database: All DIVISION road underdogs of +6.5 or LESS points off a role as a DIVISION road favorite of -6 > points the previous week (FALCONS), versus any opponent off a SU win (SAINTS).
Another extremely RARE aspect of this game for Atlanta is the fact that they are in the middle of 4 STRAIGHT division games in a row. They played New Orleans and Tampa in the last two weeks, and play at Carolina next week… 7-0 O/U since 2001: All teams in the 3rd of 4 STRAIGHT division games, when the pointspread is < 7 points (FALCONS).
This is also the 2nd of back-to-back division ROAD games for the Dirty Birds… 8-0 O/U since 2014: All underdogs of < 7 points in the 2ND of BB division road games (ATLANTA).
We conclude with the realization that Atlanta comes into this game off 3 straight ‘UNDERS’ in a row. While those results might deter some O/U bettors, all us sharps have to do is run query in the database, and see what comes out… 6-0 O/U last 2 years: All underdogs of > 4 points in the LAST month of the season (Game 13 >)… off 3 straight ‘UNDERS' in a row (ATLANTA).