|NBA Friday Night 3*** OVER / UNDER Winner from King’s TOTALS TEAM!|
Plays rated 2 thru 5 stars
8:05pm ET / 5:05pm PT
Dallas Mavericks @ Miami Heat
3*** Play on: UNDER the TOTAL
Two of the TOP EIGHT ‘Under’ teams for the 2017 season go at it tonight in South Florida, as the HEAT host the MAVERICKS at 8:05pm ET. Miami: 10-19-2 O/U this year / Dallas: 13-18-1 O/U this year. We got our play in at the opening line of 197. Get your play in ASAP as the OU line is already dropping… Not only are these two of the best UNDER teams, but both are extremely SLOW when it comes to ‘Pace of Play’. For the year, Miami is ranked #24 in the league, with 98.6 possessions per game on offense… and Dallas is ranked #26, with 98.2 possessions per game. The numbers are even slower in each team’s last three games (Mia: 96.7 / Dal: 95.7). And in each team’s LAST game: Miami had 95.4 pos/pg in their 90-89 win over Boston… and Dallas had 93.5 pos/pg in their win over Detroit.
Both teams cone in off surprising results in their last game. Miami shocked the Boston Celtics, winning OUTRIGHT as a big dog of +9 points (ATS win of +10)… and Dallas blew out the Detroit Pistons, winning 110-93 as a short fav of -1.5 points (ATS win of +15.5). So with both teams off big ATS wins, our database reveals that:
1-11 O/U last two years / 0-5 O/U already THIS season: All NBA short home favs of -5 < pts (Mia is -1.5 to -2) when BOTH teams are off DOUBLE-DIGIT ATS wins in their last game… and the OU line is on the ‘short’ side of 205 or less points.
1-7-1 O/U last four years: All NBA home teams off a SU win in which they were a big DOG of +8 > pts, in which they scored AND allowed 90 or less points (Heat), when the OU line is > 195 points.
Let’s matchup the DIVISIONS in tonight’s game. In the last seven weeks, SOUTHWEST DIVISION teams (Dallas) have gone 1-7 O/U versus all SOUTHEAST DIVISION opponents (Miami).
So Miami scored only 90 points in their last game, while Dallas erupted for 110 points… 3-15-1 O/U last 12 months / 0-4-1 O/U THIS season: All NBA home favorites who scored 90 < points in their last game (Heat) versus any opponent who scored 110 > pts in their last game (Mavericks), when the OU line is < 215 points.
BOTH of these teams ALSO have games scheduled for tomorrow. Dallas will be playing in Atlanta on Saturday, and Miami will be hosting the New Orleans Pelicans on Saturday… 1-8-1 O/U this season: All NON-CONFERENCE games (Mavericks @ Heat) when BOTH teams have a game scheduled for the NEXT day, when the OU line is < 218 points.
What seals the deal for us is a look at each team’s INDIVIDUAL O/U tendencies in the FIRST of a ‘back-to-back’ situation. Both teams go ‘Under’ BIG-TIME when they have a game scheduled the next day...
The DALLAS MAVERICKS have gone 2-12-1 O/U in the last 12 months when the have a game the NEXT day (and 1-8-1 O/U since February)…
The MIAMI HEAT have gone an amazing 2-18-1 O/U in the last three years when the have a game the NEXT day (including a PERFECT 0-11-1 O/U in the last 12 months!)…
Let’s not forget the recent HISTORY of this series: The last six DALLAS vs MIAMI games in the last 3 seasons have gone a PERFECT 0-6 O/U. Average OU line: 198.0… Average combined points: only 186.0… The average MARGIN: -12.0 points per game!