|CHRISTMAS DAY Monday 3*** NFL Over / Under WINNER from King Creole!|
Plays rated 2 thru 5 stars
Monday, Dec. 25th
4:30pm ET / 1:30pm PT
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Houston Texans
3*** Play on: UNDER the TOTAL
*Track the OU line move in this one, and then strike when the line reaches it’s ‘zenith’. This game opened at 44 points. As we type this on Friday afternoon, the line has gone up to 45.5 to 46 points. Your TARGET is to play this one at 45.5 or MORE points...
Regular readers of our weekly NFL O/U newsletter (Playbook Totals Tipsheet) already know that only ONE team in the entire league has yet to go OVER the Total in a road game this season. And that would be the PITTSBURGH STEELERS, who are 0-6-1 O/U away TY (only 36.6 combined ppg). In fact, dating back to the 2014 season, the Steelers have been an ‘Under-MACHINE’ as a visitor... going 4-19-1 O/U in their last 4 road games (and 1-12-1 O/U in last 13).
With that said, we’ll Go LOW on Christmas late-afternoon (Monday) in a Texans / Steelers series that has averaged only 30.5 combined PPG when playing IN Houston.
The Steelers are the biggest ‘road chalk’ team in Week 15 action (-9.5 to -10 pts). Sharp OU bettors ALWAYS slam the Under in these Big Chalk games.
NFL b-i-g road FAVORITES of -9 or more points (Steelers) have gone an amazing 1-16 O/U in the last 4 years, when the OU line is > 37 points.
Last Sunday’s last-second home loss for Pittsburgh was against the mighty Patriots. Looks like a hangover-effect is in store, from a points perspective.
0-6 O/U last 4 years: All NFL favorites of > 3 points off a HOME loss to the New England Patriots.
In that game, Pittsburgh was a short home dog and lost by just 3 points (37 to 24).
1-9 O/U last 2 years: All GAME 4 > teams off a home DOG loss of 4 or less points (Pit) when the OU line is 40 > points.
On the flip side, Houston managed only 186 total offensive yards and just ONE touchdown in a big 45-7 loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars. That ugly result makes the Texans active in THREE low-scoring situations:
(1) 0-6 O/U L4Y: All NFL teams who allowed 45 > pts on the division ROAD last week (Hou)...
(2) 2-14 O/U L4Y: All NFL teams off a SU road loss of 35 > pts (Hou)... and
(3) 2-10 O/U last 12 months: All NFL home teams who scored 7 < pts on the ROAD the previous week (Hou) when the OU line is > 40 pts.
With Pittsburgh sporting a 11-3 SU record, and Houston currently in ‘TANK-mode’ at 4-10 SU, we note that:
.700 or better favs of 14 < pts (Pit) have gone 1-9-1 O/U vs .300 or worse opponents (Hou) in the 2ND half of the season (GM9 >).
We LOVE the fact that future Hall-of-Fame JOE HADEN has practiced all week long, and is scheduled to play in this game. After all, the Pittsburgh defense is allowing 25.8 points per game this season WITHOUT Joe Haden on the field…. but only 17.1 points per game when he IS playing!