|NBA Saturday Night: 13 GAMES…. ONE 3*** Over / Under WINNER from King’s Totals Team!|
Plays rated 2 thru 5 stars
8:05pm ET / 5:05pm PT
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Utah Jazz
3*** Play on: UNDER the TOTAL
The NO REST situation for the traveling Thunder plays a big role in tonight’s UNDER. Ok City played yesterday at home against the Atlanta Hawks. As a BIG favorite of double-digits, the Thunder did not expect Atlanta to take ‘em all the way down to the wire. But the Hawks did. Yes, Ok City got the win (120 to 117), but in the process… Paul George played 40 minutes, Russell Westbrook played 36 minutes, and Carmelo Anthony played 35 minutes. Now, they have to turnaround the very NEXT day and make a trip into the high altitude of Salt Lake City to take on division rival Utah. Not an ideal situation if you’re considering going OVER the Total. We much prefer the fact that this Utah / Ok City SERIES has gone 7-20 O/U in the last 27 meetings… including a PERFECT 0-7 O/U in the last seven games played IN Salt Lake City over the last 3 seasons. Avg OU line: 199.0… Avg combined points: just 188.4. That’s an average margin of more than DOUBLE DIGITS (-10.6 ppg). Let’s not forget that these same two teams just played each other IN Ok City three days ago. The OU line in that game was 197.5… and the final score was 107 to 79. The UNDER cashed by -11.5 points.
So let’s look at some of these NO REST situations from our database…
The THUNDER has gone 1-9 O/U in the last 3 years off a HOME game in a ‘0/1+’ REST situation (NO rest vs an opp with at least 1 day of rest). In the last two years, they have gone a perfect 0-6 O/U in this situation.
The JAZZ have gone 1-9 O/U in the last 3 years as HOME underdogs (or short favs of -2 < pts) versus any UNRESTED opponent. That includes a perfect 0-7 O/U record in the last two years.
If you read our newest daily publication (NBA Totals TODAY), then you are already aware that NBA same-DIVISION games have pretty consistent LOW-scoring affairs (as in UNDER) so far this season. In fact, since November 1st… NBA division games with an OU line of < 214 points (Thunder @ Jazz) have gone 13-34-2 O/U (72% Unders).
When we expand our DIVISION query to a full 12 month period, and we incorporate rhyme fact that one of the two teams just plated the previous night… we get:
8-33-1 O/U last 12 months (81% Unders) for all DIVISION games in a ‘0/1’ REST situation (NO rest vs 1 day of rest), when the OU line is < 216 points (Thunder @ Jazz).
Ok City comes off a 3-game home stand in which they defeated Denver… Utah… and Atlanta… 0-8 O/U since February of last season: All NBA road teams with NO REST off 3 or more HOME wins in a row (Thunder), when the OU line is < 229 points.
The Jazz come into tonight’s game off their signature win of the season. They were home underdogs vs the San Antonio Spurs on Thursday night in the 2nd game of the TNT TV double-header. They held the mighty Spurs to only 89 points, and pulled off a double-digit shocking win…. NBA favorites have gone 1-13 O/U since 2001 (and a perfect 0-9 O/U In the last 4 years) off a DOUBLE-DIGIT underdog win against the San Antonio Spurs, when the OU line is 207 or less points (Jazz).