|NBA Saturday Night: 13 GAMESâ€¦. ONE 3*** Over / Under WINNER from Kingâ€™s Totals Team!|
PlaysÂ rated 2 thru 5Â stars
8:05pm ET / 5:05pm PT
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Utah Jazz
3*** Play on: UNDER the TOTAL
The NO REST situation for theÂ traveling Thunder plays a bigÂ role in tonightâ€™s UNDER. Ok City played yesterday at homeÂ against the Atlanta Hawks. As a BIG favorite of double-digits, the Thunder did not expect Atlanta to takeÂ â€˜em all the way down to the wire. But the Hawks did. Yes, Ok City got the win (120 to 117),Â but in the processâ€¦ Paul George played 40 minutes, Russell Westbrook played 36 minutes, and Carmelo Anthony played 35 minutes. Now, they have to turnaroundÂ the very NEXT day and make a trip into the high altitude of Salt Lake City to take on divisionÂ rival Utah. Not anÂ ideal situation if youâ€™re considering going OVER the Total. We much prefer the fact thatÂ this Utah / OkÂ City SERIES has gone 7-20 O/U in theÂ last 27 meetingsâ€¦ including a PERFECT 0-7 O/U in the last seven gamesÂ played IN Salt Lake City over the last 3 seasons. Avg OU line: 199.0â€¦ Avg combined points: just 188.4. Thatâ€™s anÂ average margin of more than DOUBLE DIGITS (-10.6 ppg). Letâ€™s notÂ forget that these same two teams just played each other IN Ok City three days ago. The OU line in that game was 197.5â€¦ and theÂ finalÂ score was 107 to 79. The UNDER cashed by -11.5 points.
So letâ€™s look at some ofÂ these NO RESTÂ situations from our databaseâ€¦
The THUNDER has gone 1-9 O/U in theÂ last 3 years off a HOME game in aÂ â€˜0/1+â€™ REST situation (NO rest vs an opp with at least 1 day of rest). In the last two years, they have gone a perfect 0-6 O/U in this situation.
The JAZZ have gone 1-9 O/U in the last 3 years as HOME underdogs (or short favs of -2 < pts)Â versus any UNRESTED opponent. That includes a perfect 0-7 O/U record in the last two years.
If you read ourÂ newestÂ daily publication (NBA Totals TODAY), then you areÂ already aware that NBA same-DIVISION games haveÂ pretty consistent LOW-scoring affairs (as in UNDER) so far this season. In fact, sinceÂ November 1stâ€¦ NBA division gamesÂ with an OU line of < 214 points (Thunder @ Jazz) have gone 13-34-2 O/U (72% Unders).
When we expandÂ our DIVISION query to a full 12 monthÂ period, and we incorporateÂ rhyme factÂ thatÂ one of the twoÂ teams just plated theÂ previous nightâ€¦ we get:
8-33-1 O/U last 12 months (81% Unders) for all DIVISION games in aÂ â€˜0/1â€™ RESTÂ situation (NO rest vs 1 day of rest), when the OU line is < 216 points (Thunder @ Jazz).Â
Ok City comes off a 3-game home stand inÂ which they defeated Denverâ€¦ Utahâ€¦ and Atlantaâ€¦ 0-8 O/U since February of last season: All NBA road teams with NO REST off 3 or more HOME wins in a row (Thunder), when the OU line is < 229 points.
The Jazz come into tonightâ€™sÂ game off their signature win ofÂ theÂ season.Â TheyÂ were homeÂ underdogs vs the San Antonio Spurs onÂ ThursdayÂ night in the 2nd game of the TNT TV double-header. TheyÂ held the mighty Spurs to only 89 points, and pulled off a double-digit shocking winâ€¦. NBA favorites have gone 1-13 O/U since 2001 (and Â aÂ perfect 0-9 O/U In the last 4 years) off a DOUBLE-DIGIT underdog winÂ against the San Antonio Spurs, when the OU line is 207 or less points (Jazz).Â