|College Football THURSDAY 3*** Bowl OVER / UNDER Winner from King Creole:|
Plays rated 2Â thru 5 stars
#245 / 246
9:00pm ET / 6:00pm PT
Alamo Bowl / San Antonio, TX
STANFORD CARDINAL vs TCU HORNED FROGS
3*** Play on: OVER THE TOTAL
From the early line movement in this game, it appears that the oddsmakers probably set a line that was too low to begin with. TheÂ opening line for the Alamo Bowl between TCU and STANFORD was set at 46 points. Since then, it has risen to theÂ current number (as of Wednesday evening) of 48.5 to 49 points. We got our play in at 47. But donâ€™t worry, thereâ€™sÂ still some value if you get your play in as soon as possible. In fact, that value could be as high as 8-9 points if ourÂ simulations for this game are close toÂ being accurate. Based on the pointspread and OU line, the predicted final score is TCU 26 - Stanford 22.5. First off, we believeÂ that the WRONGÂ teams favored in this game. Weâ€™re gonna give points to the Cardinal for the much tougher schedule this season. According to Sagarin, StanfordÂ comes into the Alamo Bowl having played the 12th toughest schedule in the nation.Â Meanwhile, the Horned Frogs played the 41st toughest schedule in the country. So our models suggest veryÂ strongly that Stanford wins this game outright. Most simulations point to a final score of:
STANFORD CARDINAL 31
TCU HORNED FROGS 27.
Thatâ€™s about 58 total points, which isÂ about 9 to 9.5 points higherÂ than theÂ current OU line.
ThisÂ will easily be the LOWEST Over / Under line that EITHER team has had this season. TCUâ€™sÂ average OU line was 57.5. Stanfordâ€™s average OU line was 55.0. Both teams lost out in theirÂ respectiveÂ Conference Championship GamesÂ thatÂ were high-scoring. 59 points were scored in the PAC 12 Championship between Stanford and USC. 58 points were scored in the first ever BIG 12Â Championship betweenÂ TCUÂ and Oklahoma.Â Probably the most intriguing part of this game could veryÂ well be the Quarterback play.Â Both Kenny Hill of TCI and KJ CostelloÂ ofÂ Stanford have shown flashes of brilliance at times this season. And nether defensive secondary is rankedÂ in the Top 50 for the year (Stanford #77 in pass efficiency defense / TCU #52 inÂ pass efficiency defense). SoÂ sneaky andÂ effectiveÂ QB playÂ could very well play aÂ role in this game.Â Costello has moved the Stanford offense much betterÂ than Keller Chryst did before his injury. If TCUÂ focuses onÂ stopping RB Bryce Love, then Costello couldÂ very well beÂ â€˜bombing awayâ€™. If TCU falls back into defensive passing formations, ket;s not forget that Bryce Love was the MASTER of the big play this season. HeÂ rippedÂ doff 50-yard-or-more RUSH in 10 out of the 12 gamesÂ that he played this season.Â And the Frog defense was TORCHED by big 50+ yard plays numerous times this year. Meanwhile, senior Kenny Hill of the Frogs is in his bestÂ current form of the season heading into the Bowls. After missing the Texas Tech game, Hill was DEADLY accurate (72%) in his finalÂ two games of the season. AndÂ yes, it IS possible to throw on the Stanford secondary. Sam Darnold of USC cranked up over 300 yards (TWICE)â€¦ Luke Falk ofÂ Washington State did itâ€¦ and Josh RosenÂ of UCLA litÂ â€˜em up for 480 passing yards. We also LOVE thisÂ indoor venue for football OVERS. The Alamo Bowl hasÂ averaged 60.7 combined points per game in the last 10 editions.Â ThatÂ includesÂ SHOOTOUTS like 47 to 41â€¦ 40 to 35â€¦ 67 to 57â€¦ and 41 to 31.