|College Football THURSDAY 3*** Bowl OVER / UNDER Winner from King Creole:|
Plays rated 2 thru 5 stars
#245 / 246
9:00pm ET / 6:00pm PT
Alamo Bowl / San Antonio, TX
STANFORD CARDINAL vs TCU HORNED FROGS
3*** Play on: OVER THE TOTAL
From the early line movement in this game, it appears that the oddsmakers probably set a line that was too low to begin with. The opening line for the Alamo Bowl between TCU and STANFORD was set at 46 points. Since then, it has risen to the current number (as of Wednesday evening) of 48.5 to 49 points. We got our play in at 47. But don’t worry, there’s still some value if you get your play in as soon as possible. In fact, that value could be as high as 8-9 points if our simulations for this game are close to being accurate. Based on the pointspread and OU line, the predicted final score is TCU 26 - Stanford 22.5. First off, we believe that the WRONG teams favored in this game. We’re gonna give points to the Cardinal for the much tougher schedule this season. According to Sagarin, Stanford comes into the Alamo Bowl having played the 12th toughest schedule in the nation. Meanwhile, the Horned Frogs played the 41st toughest schedule in the country. So our models suggest very strongly that Stanford wins this game outright. Most simulations point to a final score of:
STANFORD CARDINAL 31
TCU HORNED FROGS 27.
That’s about 58 total points, which is about 9 to 9.5 points higher than the current OU line.
This will easily be the LOWEST Over / Under line that EITHER team has had this season. TCU’s average OU line was 57.5. Stanford’s average OU line was 55.0. Both teams lost out in their respective Conference Championship Games that were high-scoring. 59 points were scored in the PAC 12 Championship between Stanford and USC. 58 points were scored in the first ever BIG 12 Championship between TCU and Oklahoma. Probably the most intriguing part of this game could very well be the Quarterback play. Both Kenny Hill of TCI and KJ Costello of Stanford have shown flashes of brilliance at times this season. And nether defensive secondary is ranked in the Top 50 for the year (Stanford #77 in pass efficiency defense / TCU #52 in pass efficiency defense). So sneaky and effective QB play could very well play a role in this game. Costello has moved the Stanford offense much better than Keller Chryst did before his injury. If TCU focuses on stopping RB Bryce Love, then Costello could very well be ‘bombing away’. If TCU falls back into defensive passing formations, ket;s not forget that Bryce Love was the MASTER of the big play this season. He ripped doff 50-yard-or-more RUSH in 10 out of the 12 games that he played this season. And the Frog defense was TORCHED by big 50+ yard plays numerous times this year. Meanwhile, senior Kenny Hill of the Frogs is in his best current form of the season heading into the Bowls. After missing the Texas Tech game, Hill was DEADLY accurate (72%) in his final two games of the season. And yes, it IS possible to throw on the Stanford secondary. Sam Darnold of USC cranked up over 300 yards (TWICE)… Luke Falk of Washington State did it… and Josh Rosen of UCLA lit ‘em up for 480 passing yards. We also LOVE this indoor venue for football OVERS. The Alamo Bowl has averaged 60.7 combined points per game in the last 10 editions. That includes SHOOTOUTS like 47 to 41… 40 to 35… 67 to 57… and 41 to 31.