King’s 5***** Bowl GAME of the YEAR is flying OVER the TOTAL on New Years Day!
2018-01-01 17:05:00

Plays rated 2 thru 5 stars

New Years Day

January 1st, 2018

#271-272

ROSE BOWL / Pasadena, CA

5:00pm ET

2:00pm PT

GEORGIA BULLDOGS vs OKLAHOMA SOONERS

5***** BEST BET on: OVER THE TOTAL

We’re returning the ‘scene of the crime’ for the 2nd year in a row. Last year, our 5* Bowl Game of the Year was also in the ROSE BOWL (Jan. 2nd, 2017)… and it was also an OVER. We went Over 59.5 points (a similar OU line to this year’s game) in the PENN STATE / USC game. At the half, the score was 27 to 21. We officially cashed the WINNER at the 11:27 mark of the 3RD quarter. When the smoke cleared, with teams combined for OVER 100 points, and the final score was a 52 to 49 SHOOTOUT. Of course. we can’t guarantee an offensive explosion like that one in this year’s Rose Bowl. But we have good memories here… and our database ‘sims’ indicate that the OU line in this game is about 13-14 points too low. Not to mention that there has been a OT of points scored here in Pasadena as of late. In fact, the OVER as gone a PERFECT 4-0 in the last four ROSE BOWLS. This games were: USC / Penn State OVER in 2017… Stanford / Iowa OVER in 2016… Oregon / Florida State OVER in 2015… and Stanford / Michigan State OVER in 2014. An average of 71.3 combined points per game has been scored in the last four Rose Bowls.

The X-factor in this game is not Oklahoma QB Baker Mayfield. Its actually Georgia freshman QB Jake Fromm. He could very well emerge as the BEST quarterback in the SEC Conference over the next year or two. The poised freshman had a 21-5 TD/INT ratio this season taking over for the injured veteran Jacob Eason. Of course Georgia wants to establish the run with it’s 5-headed monster at RB. But if the Oklahoma Sooners stack the box ands try to slow seniors Nick Chubbs and Sony Michael down on the early downs, the Fromm could very well step into the head lights. If the Sooners gear up to stop the rush, Bulldog offensive coordinator Jim Chaney could very well have Fromm come out throwing early to loosen up the defense… like he did in the SEC Championship win over Auburn (16 for 22 / 2 TD’s / 0 INTS). Fromm has basically passed all tests this season, after Georgia lost QB Eason to a knee injury in the first game of the season. And again, while we realize that Georgia’s focal point with be the ground game… Fromm WILL have opportunities to push the ball downfield. Let’s not forget that the Oklahoma DEFENSE (#57 overall / #87 vs the PASS) gave up 17 passing plays of 40 yards or MORE this season! If Georgia grinds it on the ground, we note that OKLAHOMA went a PERFECT 4-0 O/U THIS season against teams who RUSHED the ball for 200 or more yards in a game (OVER by +16 pts vs Tulane / OVER by +19 pts vs Kansas State / OVER by +38 pts vs Oklahoma State! / OVER by +22 pts vs West Virginia!). The Sooners’ defense is ranked a paltry 95th in the country in Def. S&P+. They are the only team in the Playoff without a top ten defense, and it’s not even close.

Despite missing multiple offensive weapons from last year, the Oklahoma offense hasn’t missed a beat in 2017. In fact, they’ve actually IMPROVED from last year. #1 offense in all of college football with 584 total yards per game. That an improvement of 40+ yards from last year. #3 in PASSING yards per game with 367. That’s also a 50+ yard improvement from last year. And finally, #4 scoring offense in the country at 44.9 points per game. TheTHIRD year in a row in which the Sooners averaged 40+ points per game for a season. Heisman Trophy winner Baker Mayfield led the Sooners to historic offensive numbers. Mayfield threw for 4340 yards and had 42 TDS to go with only FIVE interceptions. He completed 71% of his passes, and even added 310 yards on the ground to go with FIVE rushing TDs. The Sooners also averaged a whopping 8.4 yards PER PLAY this year… which was also clearly #1 in the entire country. Yes, Mayfield garners all the accolades from this high-powered attack. But Oklahoma also possesses one of the BEST offensive lines in the nation, and a standout running back in Rodney Anderson. Not to mention other weapons like Marquise Brown (49 / 981 / 6 TDS)… Mark Andrews (58 / 906 / 8 TDS)… CeeDee Lamb (40 / 714 / 7 TDS)… Dimitri Flowers (23 / 411 / 4TDS)… and transfer Jeff Badet from Kentucky (25 / 396 / 3 TDS). The teams that gave Georgia the MOST trouble this season were the Good OFFENSIVE teams. That would be the games against Missouri (#7 in offensive YPG with 516)… and Auburn (#24 in offensive YPG with 454). Georgia has the added benefit of playing multiple teams in the SEC Eastern Division with piss-poor offenses (like Florida, South Carolina, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, and Kentucky). That’s another under-the-radar reason why their defensive numbers were so good. In fact, against the teams who PASSED for 230 or more yards in a game… GEORGIA went a PERFECT 3-0 O/U. 

Based on the pointspread and OU line, the anticipated final score according to the oddsmakers is: Georgia 31 - Oklahoma 29.

Our database models and simulations actually point to a final score of:

GEORGIA BULLDOGS 39

OKLAHOMA SOONERS 35

That’s about 74 points… which is about 14 points LESS than the current OU line.