|Kingâ€™s 5***** Bowl GAME of the YEAR is flying OVER the TOTAL on New Years Day!|
PlaysÂ rated 2 thru 5 stars
New Years Day
January 1st, 2018
ROSE BOWL / Pasadena, CA
GEORGIA BULLDOGS vs OKLAHOMA SOONERS
5***** BEST BET on: OVER THE TOTAL
Weâ€™re returning theÂ â€˜scene of the crimeâ€™ forÂ the 2nd year in a row.Â Last year, our 5* Bowl Game ofÂ the Year was also in the ROSE BOWL (Jan. 2nd, 2017)â€¦ and it was also an OVER. WeÂ went Over 59.5 points (aÂ similar OU line to this yearâ€™s game) inÂ the PENN STATE / USC game. At the half, the score was 27 to 21. WeÂ officially cashed the WINNER at the 11:27 mark of the 3RD quarter.Â When the smoke cleared,Â withÂ teamsÂ combined for OVER 100 points, and theÂ final score was a 52 to 49 SHOOTOUT. Of course. we canâ€™tÂ guarantee an offensive explosion likeÂ that one in this yearâ€™s Rose Bowl. But we have goodÂ memories hereâ€¦ and our databaseÂ â€˜simsâ€™ indicate that the OU line in this game is about 13-14Â points too low. Not toÂ mention that there has been a OTÂ of points scored here in Pasadena as of late. In fact, the OVERÂ as gone a PERFECT 4-0 in the last four ROSE BOWLS.Â ThisÂ games were: USC / Penn State OVER in 2017â€¦ Stanford / Iowa OVER in 2016â€¦ Oregon / Florida State OVER in 2015â€¦ and Stanford / Michigan State OVER in 2014. An average of 71.3Â combined points perÂ game has been scored in the last four Rose Bowls.
The X-factor inÂ this game is notÂ Oklahoma QB Baker Mayfield.Â Its actually Georgia freshman QB Jake Fromm. He could very well emerge asÂ the BEST quarterback in the SECÂ Conference over the next year or two. TheÂ poisedÂ freshman had a 21-5 TD/INT ratio this season takingÂ over for the injuredÂ veteran Jacob Eason. Of course Georgia wants toÂ establish theÂ run with itâ€™s 5-headed monster at RB. But if theÂ Oklahoma Sooners stack the box ands try to slow seniors Nick ChubbsÂ and Sony Michael down onÂ the early downs, the Fromm could very well step into the head lights.Â If the Sooners gear up to stop the rush, Bulldog offensive coordinator Jim ChaneyÂ could very well haveÂ Fromm come out throwing early toÂ loosen up the defenseâ€¦ like he did in the SECÂ Championship win over Auburn (16 for 22 / 2 TDâ€™s / 0 INTS). Fromm has basically passed all tests this season, after Georgia lost QB Eason to a kneeÂ injuryÂ in the first game of theÂ season. And again, while we realizeÂ thatÂ Georgiaâ€™s focal point with be the ground gameâ€¦ Fromm WILL haveÂ opportunities to push the ball downfield. Letâ€™s not forget that the Oklahoma DEFENSE (#57 overall / #87 vs the PASS)Â gave up 17 passing plays of 40 yards or MORE this season! If Georgia grinds it on the ground, we note that OKLAHOMA went a PERFECT 4-0 O/U THIS seasonÂ against teams who RUSHED the ball for 200 or moreÂ yards in a game (OVER by +16 pts vs Tulane / OVER by +19 pts vs Kansas State / OVER by +38 pts vs Oklahoma State! / OVER by +22 pts vs West Virginia!). The Soonersâ€™Â defense is ranked a paltry 95th in theÂ country in Def. S&P+. They are the only team in the Playoff without a top ten defense, and itâ€™sÂ not evenÂ close.
Despite missing multiple offensive weapons from last year, theÂ OklahomaÂ offenseÂ hasnâ€™tÂ missed a beat in 2017. In fact, theyâ€™ve actuallyÂ IMPROVED from last year. #1Â offense in all of college football with 584 total yards per game. That an improvement of 40+ yards fromÂ last year. #3 in PASSING yards perÂ game with 367. Thatâ€™s also a 50+ yardÂ improvement from last year. And finally, #4 scoring offense in theÂ country at 44.9 points per game. TheTHIRDÂ year in a row in which the Sooners averaged 40+ points per game for a season. Heisman Trophy winner BakerÂ MayfieldÂ led the Sooners to historic offensive numbers.Â Mayfield threw for 4340 yards and had 42 TDS to go with only FIVEÂ interceptions. He completed 71% of his passes, and even added 310 yards on theÂ ground to goÂ with FIVE rushing TDs. The Sooners alsoÂ averaged a whopping 8.4 yards PER PLAY this yearâ€¦Â whichÂ was also clearly #1 in the entire country. Yes,Â Mayfield garners all the accolades from this high-powered attack. But Oklahoma also possesses oneÂ ofÂ the BEST offensive lines inÂ the nation, and a standout running back in Rodney Anderson. Not to mention other weapons like Marquise Brown (49 / 981 / 6 TDS)â€¦ MarkÂ Andrews (58 / 906 / 8 TDS)â€¦ CeeDee Lamb (40 / 714 / 7 TDS)â€¦ Dimitri Flowers (23 / 411 / 4TDS)â€¦ andÂ transfer Jeff Badet from Kentucky (25 / 396 / 3 TDS). The teamsÂ that gave Georgia the MOST trouble thisÂ season were the Good OFFENSIVE teams.Â That would beÂ the gamesÂ against Missouri (#7 in offensive YPG with 516)â€¦Â andÂ Auburn (#24Â in offensive YPG with 454). Georgia has the added benefit of playing multiple teams in the SEC Eastern Division with piss-poor offenses (like Florida, South Carolina, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, and Kentucky). Thatâ€™s another under-the-radarÂ reasonÂ why their defensive numbers were so good. In fact, against the teams who PASSED for 230 or more yards in a gameâ€¦ GEORGIA went a PERFECT 3-0 O/U.Â
Based on the pointspread and OU line, theÂ anticipatedÂ final score according to the oddsmakers is: Georgia 31 -Â Oklahoma 29.
Our database models and simulations actuallyÂ point to a final score of:
GEORGIA BULLDOGS 39
OKLAHOMA SOONERS 35
Thatâ€™s about 74 pointsâ€¦ which is about 14 points LESS than theÂ current OU line.