|KING’S 3-0 Week continues on FRIDAY with the 3*** ‘OVER of the DAY’ in the NBA!|
Plays rated 2 thru 5 stars
8:35pm ET / 5:35pm PT
CHICAGO BULLS @ DALLAS MAVERICKS
3*** Play on: OVER THE TOTAL
Series history (0-3 O/U last 3 meetings) be DAMNED. Both of these teams have quickened up their PACE of PLAY considerably in the last few weeks, now that they are both pretty healthy. If this game was played in the first month or two of the season, we would be very tempted to Go LOW (as in UNDER). After all, the Bulls and Mavericks were two of the three BEST ‘Under’ teams (along with Memphis) in the first month of the season. And the OU line in a game in that first month could very well have been LESS than 200 points. But there is a REASON why the OU line in tonight’s non-conference game is already up to the low 210’s. And that reason is each team’s incredibly quick Pace of Play as of late.
Dallas just played the QUICKEST game of the entire season (for a home underdog) in their Wednesday night home game against the Golden State Warriors. And the final score was 125 to 122. It ended up going OVER the Total by +26.5 points per game. In their last three games, the Mavericks have scored 128 points… 116 points… and 122 points. That average of 122 points per game is is direct contrast to their year-to-date numbers (in which they have averaged only 101.6 ppg). But we don’t bet based on YTD stats anymore. We live in a ‘what have you done for me LATELY’ world. And in that world, Dallas has gone from the #25 team in Pace of Play for the SEASON… but the #8 team in Pace of Play over their last five games. The exact same offensive improvement is evident for the traveling BULLS tonight. Just like their counterparts, Chicago is averaging only 101.4 points per game for the SEASON. But in their last ten games, they have turned on the jets on offense… with an average of 110.4 points per game. In their last FIVE, the average is 111.8 ppg. And in their last THREE, the average is 115.0! In their last three games, the Bulls are playing at a PACE of 106.3 offensive possessions per game. That’s the third FASTEST and QUICKEST Pace of Play in the entire league. We will play for EACH team’s quick pace to continue in ‘Bg D’ on Friday night.
After reviewing Wednesday’s game, in which the MAVERICKS took the defending champion Warriors right down to the last possession of the game (lost 125-222), our database reveals that: In the last five seasons, NBA teams off a Conference home DOG loss in which they scored AND allowed 120 or more points (MAVERICKS) have gone 8-1-1 O/U, when the OU line is in the range of 205 to 220 points.
On the flip side, not only is Chicago SCORING like nobody’s business these days. But they are also ALLOWING a ton of points on defense. The Bulls have allowed 124 points,124 points, and 114 points in their last three games… 11-2-1 O/U since 2008: All non-divisiion road teams who ALLOWED 124 or more points in EACH of their last two games (BULLS), when the OU line is 218 or less points. In NON-conferene play (Eastern vs Western), these games have gone a PERFECT 5-0 O/u.
Put each team’s current defensive woes together, and you get a HOT ‘Over’ result in the last few seasons… 23-9 O/U since the start of last year: All NBA games in which the home team is FAVORED… and BOTH teams allowed 120 or more points in their last game (MAVERICKS + BULLS). These games have gone a PERFE T 11-0 O/U when the home team is -3 or greater (DALLAS is -5 tonight), and the OU line is < 215 points.
Sealing the deal is the fact that the Bulls play a DIVISION road game TOMORROW as well (against the Indiana Pacers)… 6-0 O/U last five years. All NON-CONFERENCE road underdogs (BULLS) who have a division ROAD game the next day...