Off a 2-0 SWEEP, here's the NFL Wild Card DAY TWO 3*** Sunday OVER / UNDER Winner from King Creole:
2018-01-07 16:35:00

Plays rated 2 thru 5 stars

Sunday, Jan. 7th

NFL Wild Card Playoffs

4:30pm ET / 1:30pm PT

Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints

3*** Play on: UNDER the TOTAL

We certainly acknowledge that BOTH of this season’s earlier meetings between these two teams went OVER the Total. If anything, the fact that the squares already KNOW that is giving us a couple of points of line VALUE for UNDER bettors. Back on Sept. 24th, these two teams played IN New Orleans, and the OU line was 46.5 points. The final score was 34-14 for the Saints. It ended up going Over the Total by just a HALF a point. And it would have went UNDER by -6.5 points, if Saints RB didn’t bust a long TD run when New Orleans was attempting to run out the clock late in the game. If you bet that one OVER, consider yourself lucky. New Orleans only had 352 total offense yards, and Carolina had only 288 total offensive yards. The rematch was in Carolina on Dec. 3rd. In that game, the OU line was 48 points, and the Saints once again came our on top (31-21 victory).  It was similar to the first game in that it (a) only went OVER by 4 points…and (b) did so in GARBAGE time when New Orleans was holding on to a 31-14 are lead. Like the first encounter, New Orleans held the Carolina offense to just 279 total yards.

The WILD CARD round of the Playoffs:

This has indeed been the LOWEST-scoring round of any in the NFL post-season. Since 1997, the Wild Card round has gone 28-48-2 O/U (63% Unders), including 5-14-1 O/U in the last five years). When home teams have been FAVORED in this round (like the Saints ARE), and the OU line has been > 39 points…. the results have improved to 13-31-2 O/U. (70% Unders). That includes 4-19 O/U since 2004 (83% Unders) when the OU line is in the range of > 39 points and < 52 points (and 2-11 O/U <85% Unders> in the last six seasons). 

In terms of PACE of PLAY, these two teams are amongst the SLOWEST in the entire league. The New Orleans Saints were ranked #29 in the league in ‘Pace' for the year, running an offensive play every 28.9 seconds. And on the flip side, the Kansas City Chiefs were the SLOWEST team in the entire league (#32 overall) in ‘Pace’… running an offensive play every 30.4 seconds.

It has not been lost on us this that this is a DIVISION game… in which both teams are VERY familiar with each other… and in which there will not be a lot of offensive SURPRISES or WRINKLES. Perhaps we should have LED our writeup with these numbers. Let’s not ‘Bury the Lead’!

While it’s true that Same-DIVISION games in the NFL post-season have gone a middle-of-the-road 20-26-2 O/U since 1990, let’s review the RECENT tendencies: In the last six years of the Playoffs, DIVISION games have gone a perfect 0-4-2 O/U. And since 1996, DIVISION games have gone 2-10 O/U when the HOST is FAVORED (Saints) and the OU line is 42 or more points. If the OU line in these games is > 45 points, the results improve to a PERFECT 0-6 O/U. 

Also from the database…

(1) 2-14 O/U since 2005 / 1-10 O/U since 1998: All NFL Playoff BIG home favorites of -6 or more points (Saints) when the OU line is in the ‘sweet spot’ RANGE of > 44 pts and < 50 pts.

(2) 2-10 O/U since 2012: All SUNDAY Playoff games the NFL when the pointspread is > 3 pts and the OU line is < 49 points (Panthers @ Saints).

(3) 1-8 O/U since 2012: All NFL Playoff teams who allowed 31 or MORE points in their last game (Saints), when the OU line is < 50 points (also a PERFECT 0-4 O/U in the last  5 years).