|Off a 2-0 SWEEP, here's the NFL Wild Card DAY TWO 3*** Sunday OVER / UNDER Winner from King Creole:|
Plays rated 2 thru 5 stars
Sunday, Jan. 7th
NFL Wild Card Playoffs
4:30pm ET / 1:30pm PT
Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints
3*** Play on: UNDER the TOTAL
We certainly acknowledge that BOTH of this seasonâ€™s earlier meetings between these two teams went OVERÂ the Total. If anything, the fact that the squaresÂ already KNOW that isÂ giving us a couple ofÂ points of line VALUE for UNDER bettors. Back on Sept. 24th, these two teamsÂ played IN New Orleans, and the OU line was 46.5Â points. The finalÂ score was 34-14 for the Saints. It ended up going Over the Total by just a HALF a point. And itÂ would have went UNDER by -6.5 points, if Saints RB didnâ€™t bust a long TDÂ run when New Orleans was attempting to run out theÂ clockÂ late in the game. If you bet thatÂ one OVER, consider yourself lucky. New Orleans only had 352 totalÂ offense yards, and Carolina had only 288 totalÂ offensive yards. The rematch was in Carolina on Dec. 3rd. In that game, the OU line was 48 points, and the Saints once again came our on top (31-21Â victory). Â It was similar to theÂ first game inÂ that it (a) only went OVER by 4 pointsâ€¦and (b) did so in GARBAGE time when New Orleans was holding on to a 31-14Â areÂ lead. Like the first encounter, New Orleans held the Carolina offense to just 279Â total yards.
The WILD CARD round of the Playoffs:
This has indeed been the LOWEST-scoring round of any in the NFL post-season. Since 1997, the Wild Card round has gone 28-48-2 O/U (63% Unders), including 5-14-1 O/U in the lastÂ five years). When homeÂ teams have been FAVORED in this round (like the Saints ARE),Â and the OU line has been > 39 pointsâ€¦. the results haveÂ improved to 13-31-2 O/U. (70% Unders). That includes 4-19 O/U since 2004 (83% Unders) when the OU line is in the rangeÂ of > 39 points and < 52 points (and 2-11 O/U <85% Unders> in theÂ last six seasons).Â
InÂ termsÂ of PACE of PLAY, these two teams areÂ amongst the SLOWEST in the entire league. The New Orleans Saints were ranked #29 in theÂ league inÂ â€˜Pace' forÂ the year, running an offensiveÂ play every 28.9 seconds. And on theÂ flip side, the Kansas CityÂ Chiefs were the SLOWEST team in the entire league (#32 overall) inÂ â€˜Paceâ€™â€¦Â running an offensiveÂ play every 30.4 seconds.
It hasÂ not been lost on us thisÂ thatÂ this is a DIVISION gameâ€¦ inÂ whichÂ both teams are VERY familiar with each otherâ€¦ and inÂ which there will not be a lot of offensive SURPRISES or WRINKLES.Â Perhaps we should have LED ourÂ writeup with these numbers. Letâ€™s notÂ â€˜Bury the Leadâ€™!
While itâ€™s true that Same-DIVISION games in the NFLÂ post-season have gone a middle-of-the-road 20-26-2 O/U since 1990, letâ€™sÂ reviewÂ the RECENT tendencies: In the last six years ofÂ theÂ Playoffs, DIVISION games haveÂ gone a perfect 0-4-2 O/U. And since 1996, DIVISION games have gone 2-10 O/U when the HOST is FAVORED (Saints) and the OU line is 42 or more points. If the OU line inÂ these games is > 45 points, theÂ resultsÂ improve to a PERFECT 0-6 O/U.Â
Also from the databaseâ€¦
(1) 2-14 O/U since 2005 / 1-10 O/U since 1998: All NFL Playoff BIG home favorites of -6 or more points (Saints) when the OU line is in theÂ â€˜sweet spotâ€™ RANGE of > 44 ptsÂ and < 50 pts.
(2) 2-10 O/U since 2012: All SUNDAY PlayoffÂ games the NFL when the pointspread is > 3 ptsÂ and the OU line is < 49 points (Panthers @ Saints).
(3) 1-8 O/U since 2012: All NFL Playoff teams whoÂ allowed 31 or MORE points inÂ their last game (Saints), when the OU line is < 50 points (also a PERFECT 0-4 O/U in the last Â 5 years).