|NFL Sunday 3*** Division Round SIDE PLAY Winner from King Creole:|
Plays rated 2 thru 5 stars
Sunday, Jan. 14th
1:05pm ET / 10:05am PT
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Pittsburgh Steelers
3*** Play on: JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS plus the points
*Optimum line: +7.5 or more
Gamblers who bet ON the Jaguars last week in the Wild Card round are naturally gonna be a little gushy about backing them again this weekend in the Division Round. But there are some major differences when comparing those two games. We would NEVER play on the Jags as a favorite, particularly when they are laying 7 or more points (like last Saturday against the Bills). Jacksonville is simply not built these days to cover huge numbers as a favorite. But in the completely OPPOSITE position, we will play ON ‘EM every time. And that position is GETTING (not laying) a TD or more in a game. With all due respect to the other handicappers on this website who are laying the points with the Steelers, we courteously disagree… and so does our DATABASE.
Sharp underdogs bettors almost alway play on a BIG DOG (with the #1 defense in the entire league) when the OU line is on the low side (this game already at less than 42 points). And when we factor in Pittsburgh’s current problems on defense, then YES… we will take a bite. Since losing their best defensive player (Ryan Shazier), Pittsburgh has allowed 24 points per game. And that includes 24 points in their last regular season game against a Cleveland team that was averaging only 14 points per game for the entire season. Let’s not forget that cornerback Arnie Burns might not play either on Sunday, after hyperexteding his knee in Pittsburgh’s Wednesday practice.
Speaking of BIG LINE adjustments from one week to the next (Jags go from -9 to +7.5 or more in a two-week span), let’s run the numbers in our database. the sample size is small in the post-season, but still significant…
Since 2007, NFL PLAYOFF underdogs of +5.5 or more points who were a BIG FAV of -7 > pts in their last game (JAGUARS) have gone a PERFECT 6-0 ATS when the OU line is < 51 points.
The Jaguars were fantastic on defense last week. They held Buffalo to only 263 total offensive yards, and only THREE total points…
10-2 ATS since 2009: All NFL PLAYOFF teams who allowed 3 or LESS points in their last game (JAGUARS).
We also ran a query for post-season teams who WON but did NOT cover the pointspread in their last game (like Jacksonville)…
15-2-2 ATS since 1992 / 8-0-2 ATS since 2004: All NFL PLAYOFF underdogs of > 3 points off a SU Playoff WIN but and ATS loss (JAGUARS).
Yes, we are aware that the Jaguars enter Sunday’s game on a current 3-game ATS losing streak. But our database tells us that THIS is the week to play ‘ON EM’… if they are an underdog.
10-2 ATS since 1991: All NFL PLAYOFF underdogs off 3 or more ATS LOSSES in a row (JAGUARS).
In last week’s win over Buffalo, the Jaguars RUSHED for 155 yards on the ground…
8-1-1 ATS since 2012: All NFL Playoff road teams off a SU Playoff WIN in which they RAN for > 150 yards (JAGUARS) when the OU line is 49 or less points.
We’re hoping the pointspead in this game STAYS in the current range of Pittsburgh -7 to -8 points. AND that the OU line also stays right around 41 points. That’s because:
Since 1994, NFL PLAYOFF home favorites of -7 to -8 points (Steelers) have gone 1-7-1 ATS when the OU line is in the range of > 38 and > 43 points.
Sealing the deal for us is a ‘Division Round-SPECIFC’ tendency that tell us that…
Since 2001, NFL PLAYOFF Division Round home favorites of < 9 points playing off back-to-back SU wins (Steelers) have gone 1-11-1 ATS when the OU line is < 46 points.