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PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS @ MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES
3*** Play on: OVER THE TOTAL
Expect an extremely FAST-paced game tonight on ESPN TV as the first place TIMBERWOLVES take on the TRAILBLAZERS. If this one was played in the first two months or so of the season, we would be very tempted to go the other way. That’s because the Trailblazers came out of the gate as an EXTREME ‘Under’ team, with tremendous improvement on defense… and an unsure offense. In fact, Portland is STILL one of only THREE teams in the entire league that’s still gone UNDER in 60% or more of their games this season (Memphis 14-26-1 O/U, Portland 16-26 O/U, Detroit 16-24-1 O/U). But what the did in November and December is not relevant right now. What does this Portland team look like on January 14th? With an increased pace as of late, they look like the #5 OVER team that they were last year. We were ON the Blazers / Rockets OVER the Total on Wednesday night, and those two teams combined for 233 points. Portland followed that up with a 232-pt game against New Orleans on Friday. So the time is ripe to ride this team once again on Sunday night. They are now 4-0 O/U in their last five games, and 6-1 O/U in their last seven. Even MORE revealing is their average OU MARGIN during this current streak: +18.5 points per game! On the flip side, sharp OU bettors already know what their getting in the host Minnesota Timberwolves. Already a TOP FIVE Team in terms of offensive points per game (109). And just like their counterparts, a team that’s quickened their offensive Pace of Play as of late. The T’Wolves come into tonight’s game having scored 116 or MORE points in three of their last four games. That includes a 118-108 win over the Knicks on Friday Night that went OVER the Total by +17.5 points. So when we get into the current stats, here’s what we get in regards to this game: Minnesota leads ALL NBA teams with a 119.9 points per 100 possessions PACE in their last four games. And Portland is not very far behind at a 113.3 points per 100 possessions pace. So to wrap up our first paragraph, let’s go here: The average NBA team averages 85.3 shot attempts per game so far in the 2017 / 2018 season. In their last game, the TRAILBLAZERS put up 97 shot attempts… and the TIMBERWOLVES put up 96.9 shot attempts. We’re talking extreme fast pace for these two teams as of late.
Let’s not forget the recent OU tendencies of this series. The T’WOLVES and BLAZERS have gone 36-13-1O/U in their last 50 meetings. That includes 13-3 O/U in the last 16 played IN Minnesota…. including an ‘Over’ HERE in the previous meeting played back on December 18th.
There hasn’t been too many DIVISION games played in this particular Day of the Week so far this season. But the results have been:
5-0 O/U so far in 2017/2018: All SUNDAY division games in which the home team (MINNESOTA) is FAVORED…
Tonight’s game will wrap up up the current homestead for the host Timberwolves…
18-4 O/U since 2010: All NBA favorites of > 2 points playing in their 5TH straight HOME game (MINNESOTA) when the OU line is 211 or more points. Since the beginning of December, these teams have gone a PERFECT 5-0 O/U…
It’s an exact opposite situation for the traveling Trailblazers. Tonights marks the end of their current 4-game road trip… in which they went OVER the Total in each the previous three road games. That’s worth a database query: In the last 3 years, NBA conference ROAD teams who went OVER the Total in each of their last 3 road games (PORTLAND) have gone a PERFECT 11-0 O/U when the OU line is > 195 points.