NFL November Football - Trends to Watch
Marc Lawrence
Posted: 2019-11-01

Your preview

HOME TEAMS 

November signals the halfway point of the NFL season. And with it an array of good, bad, and ugly team trends for each team arises in game they’ve played during Thanksgiving month. Let’s check them out.

Keep an eye on (Good): Buffalo 32-21 ATS

The Bills are often referred to as a "cold weather" home team. Yet, from a betting perspective, they are far better at home this month than in December. They will have Washington arrive on the Nov. 3rd and three weeks later host Denver, as their playoff push continues.

Bad: Cleveland 12-27 ATS and L.A. Rams 19-40 ATS

This season has not gone as well as planned for these two clubs and for those betting on this duo at home, it could still be a struggle. Cleveland has the three-game homestand against Buffalo (11/10), Pittsburgh (11/14) and Miami (11/24) that they will have to take advantage of.

The Rams will have a pair of challenging encounters against Chicago (11/17) and versus Baltimore eight days later on Monday night. 

Keep an eye on (Bad): 3-Teams
N.Y Giants 21-34 ATS - Oakland 19-33 ATS
San Francisco 23-35 ATS

Of these three teams, New York and Oakland could continue to slide. Because of a bye week, Big Blue fans only can see the Giants once this month and that is on the first Monday when Dallas visits. The Raiders have two tilts in Oak-Town just a few days apart, facing Detroit (11/3) and division rival the Chargers (11/7).

Because the 49ers played five of their first eight contests on the road, they will have three home games in a row. In order, they will take on Seattle (11/11), Arizona (11/17) and Green Bay (11/24).

AWAY TEAMS 

Good: Houston 21-10 ATS

The loss of J.J. Watt is not going to help Houston, but they have moved on from building there defense around him with all his truly unfortunate injury woes. The Texans will attempt to build on road warriors record at Baltimore (11/17) and in London against Jacksonville (11/3).

Keep an eye on (Good): 4-Teams
Chicago 40-22 ATS - Cincinnati 32-21 ATS
Indianapolis 35-19 ATS - L.A. Chargers 35-20 ATS

It's been an unexpectedly tough season for the Bears to this point. They have played very well over the years in November road games and will try and keep that moving forward with contests in Philadelphia (11/3) and at the L.A. Rams two weeks later.

With an open date, just one away contest for the Bengals and that's at Oakland on the 17th. Don't get your hopes up just yet.

Indy heads to the Steel City on the first Sunday of the month and has a short week on the 21st for a very important confrontation at Houston.

At this point it's tempting to call every Chargers contest a road game since they seldom have more fans in Carson than the opposing team. For the sake of this article, we'll stick to pure road games for the Bolts who will be in Pittsburgh on the 10th of the month.

Keep an eye on (Bad): Detroit 18-31 ATS

It is not lost on football bettors for decades, this is normally where Detroit's season goes south. Lions' players will have to suck it up with a trio of roadies. Matt Stafford and the fella's begin in Oak-Town (11/3), head to the Windy City to face the Bears (11/10) and finish up in Virginia (11/24) versus Washington.

FAVORITES 
Keep an eye on (Good): Dallas 46-30 ATS

The Cowboys will be hand out points against the rival New York Giants (11/4) on a Monday night and probably be a small favorite against Minnesota the next Sunday. (stay tuned) Depending on how the month for Dallas and Detroit plays out, the Boys could be favored in Motor City. The Thanksgiving matchup with Buffalo seems a certainty also.

Bad: Washington 15-32 ATS

As bad as Washington is this season and in the past according to our numbers, they will still likely be the favorite over the mighty New York Jets (11/17).

Keep an eye on (Bad): 3-Teams
Kansas City 25-41 ATS - L.A. Rams 19-30 ATS
Oakland 18-29 ATS

Part of the success or failure of Kansas City as a favorite will revolve around if Patrick Mahomes plays. This is a developing situation and Chiefs will face Minnesota (11/3), play at Tennessee (11/10) and take on the Chargers on Monday the 18th in Mexico City, unless "Sod-Gate" strikes again. Keep an eye out.

After a bye week, the Rams will be dealing digits at Pittsburgh (11/10), presumably and at home to Da Bears (11/17) and Baltimore (11/25) in a Jared Goff vs. Lamar Jackson showdown.

It is actually possible, Oakland will be favored all month, with a couple TBD. The Raiders will be faves at home vs. the Lions (11/3) and Bengals (11/17). Depending on results, they might be a very short favorite against the visiting Chargers (11/10) and when they make cross-country sojourn to play the Jets (11/24).

UNDERDOGS 

Keep an eye on (Good): Chicago 41-27 ATS - Tampa Bay 43-28 ATS

Since Chicago has beaten the spread on the road in November, they naturally are solid as underdogs. As mentioned above, they are in the City of Brotherly Love (11/3) and the City of Angels (11/17).

Tampa Bay's good record is based on opponents not taking them seriously. If Jameis Winston can limit interceptions to, oh, let's say two a game, the Buccaneers could cover at Seattle (11/3) and New Orleans (11/17) with a trip to Atlanta unknown at this point.

Bad: N.Y. Giants 16-33 ATS

The G-Men will catch points against the hated Cowboys on the first Monday of the month and at Chicago on the 24th. History says both could be bad.

Keep an eye on (Bad): Detroit 25-44 ATS

We just talked about Detroit's road woes and they align with them as underdog, which they will be at the Raiders (11/3) and Chicago the following week. A home game with Dallas on the 17th could be more dreadful news.

DIVISION 

Good: New Orleans 30-15 ATS

With Drew Brees back and off a bye, the Saints are sitting pretty for backers, with games against Atlanta (11/10) at Tampa Bay (11/17) and Carolina (11/24).

Keep an eye on (Good): Oakland 30-20 ATS

The Raiders will host America's perpetual road team, the Carson Chargers on the first Thursday of November.

Bad: Cincinnati 13-31 ATS

The Bungals will have two opportunities to further lower their AFC North record in the 11th month of the year, First, versus the Ravens (11/10) and 14 days later when Pittsburgh also visits the Queen City.

Keep an eye on (Bad): 3-Teams
Cleveland 13-21 ATS - Kansas City 19-29 ATS
Tennessee 19-30 ATS

In the middle of three homers in front of the Dog Pound, the Brownies have the hated Steelers (11/14).

K.C. has to travel all the way to Mexico City to take on a division rival, the Chargers and there might be more Bolts powder blue jersey's there than a Carson, CA. home game.

We will have a chance to continue to see if Tennessee's Ryan Tannehill has a brighter NFL future than Marcus Mariota against Jacksonville (11/24). That's presuming Tannehill isn't hurt by then.



For more insightful content from Marc-Lawrence click here